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欧洲的病,不在俄罗斯,在心病!一套“恐惧连环计”玩得炉火纯青
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-07 03:26
最近,欧洲的天空有点忙。 今天这边报告发现"不明飞行物",明天那边机场紧急关闭,战斗机呼啸着就上天了。搞得人心惶惶,好像大战一触即发。 那这些"幽灵"到底是谁派来的? 结果呢?各国顺理成章地收紧了边境,大家忙着讨论文化冲突,谁还记得当时差点把欧元区搞散架的债务危机? 经济问题,就这么被完美地"稀释"了。 接着,新冠疫情来了。 答案几乎不用猜,西方媒体和政客们异口同声,指向了同一个目标:俄罗斯。这反应速度,快得都形成肌肉记忆了。 不管最后查出来是哪个老百姓的航模失控,还是哪个科研机构的气象气球,只要先扣上"俄罗斯威胁"的帽子,任务就算完成了一大半。 但你琢磨琢磨,这套路,熟不熟悉? 说白了,这就是一套精心设计的"恐惧治国术"。核心目的就一个:转移矛盾。把老百姓的视线,从自家一地鸡毛的经济烂摊子上,巧妙地挪开。 咱们把时间线拉长一点看,这套戏码已经演了快十年了。 还记得2015年那场"难民危机"吗?当时铺天盖地的新闻,把中东和非洲的难民描绘成洪水猛兽,仿佛欧洲文明马上就要被淹没。 当政客们拿不出解决经济问题的有效方案时,他们该怎么办? 一夜之间,全世界都陷入了"完美的恐惧"。为了安全,大家心甘情愿地交出部分自由, ...
警惕日本老路!盛松成:财富大迁移加速,低利率三大领域成新金矿
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-27 11:46
前言 在当前低利率环境下,中国居民储蓄正呈现向资本市场转移的明显趋势。 经济学家盛松成指出,这一"财富大迁移"将聚焦于新基建、消费基建及新型城镇化三大领域。 这些与国家战略高度契合的优质资产有望成为新的价值增长点。 从另一个角度看,中国资本市场尚处于成熟过程中,投资者教育、监管体系能否支撑如此大规模的资金 转移仍需观察。 对此,需要辩证分析。一方面,居民储蓄配置多元化确实是金融市场发展的必然趋势。 盛松成指出,与日本被动接受"广场协议"不同,中国坚持汇率稳定政策,且通过财政政策与货币政策协 同防止流动性过度泛滥。 另一方面,当前资金流向集中于国家战略导向的领域,如新基建、消费基建等,这些领域具有明确的政 策支持和现金流保障。 财富转移的逻辑与争议 当前中国居民储蓄向资本市场转移的趋势已引发广泛关注。 央行数据显示,2025年8月居民存款同比少增6000亿元,而非银存款同比多增5500亿元,这一变化被普 遍解读为"存款搬家"的信号。 然而,这种转移是否必然带来积极效果?或许有人会质疑:在资本市场波动加剧的背景下,普通投资者 是否具备足够的风险识别能力? 历史上,日本在低利率环境下曾出现资金大规模涌入股市和房地产 ...
“海湖庄园协议”破产后,特朗普为何推行“宾夕法尼亚计划”?霸权末路的“危险游戏”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-14 11:29
特朗普站在白宫椭圆形办公室的窗前,手里攥着两份被国际社会骂得狗血淋头的"化债方案",眼神里透 着股子赌徒的狠劲——海湖庄园协议黄了,那就再押上宾夕法尼亚计划! 这哪是治国?分明是拿整个世界的经济命脉当赌注! 日本财务省官员拍着桌子骂:"这是明抢!" 欧洲央行行长直摇头:"美元信用要塌方!" "海湖庄园协议"破产后,特朗普为何推行"宾夕法尼亚计划"?霸权末路的"危险游戏" 2025年的美国,像一艘漏水的巨轮,船底压着37万亿美元的债务黑洞,船头撞上了9万亿美元利息的冰 山。 话说去年,白宫经济顾问米兰端着杯咖啡,在佛罗里达的海湖庄园里拍着桌子嚷嚷:"咱把外国人的中 短期国债全换成100年零息债!让他们当百年债主,利息都别想拿!" 这招儿够损——好比您借了邻居十万块,转头说"这钱我分一百年还,利息?不存在的!您还得把钞票 锁保险柜里,不能花也不能卖!" 国际社会当场炸了锅! 连沙特那帮油老板都撂下狠话:"再这么玩,咱拿美元填沙漠!" 可特朗普偏觉得这是"神来之笔"——只要把债主们摁住,美国就能喘口气。 结果呢?全球央行偷偷减持美债,黄金价格蹭蹭往上蹿,美元指数跌得跟过山车似的。海湖庄园协议还 没落地,就先把自己架 ...
2025收缩型城市分析——139个城市正 “悄悄收缩”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-14 03:13
Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of "shrinking cities" in China has gained attention as urbanization enters a new phase, characterized by population decline and economic restructuring, necessitating targeted development strategies and policy recommendations for sustainable urban development [1][48]. Group 1: Definition and Identification of Shrinking Cities - Shrinking cities are defined as urban areas experiencing sustained population loss and structural economic crises, requiring a multi-dimensional understanding [3][6]. - Identification standards for shrinking cities include a continuous decline in urban population over three years, economic growth below the national average, and mismatched urban expansion and population growth [7][10]. Group 2: Characteristics and Distribution of Shrinking Cities - There are 139 identified shrinking cities in China, with significant concentrations in the Northeast, particularly in Heilongjiang, where 12 out of 13 cities are classified as shrinking [10][11]. - Shrinking cities exhibit a paradox of spatial expansion despite population decline, with 93.03% of these cities still expanding their built-up areas [35][36]. Group 3: Causes of Shrinking Cities - Macro factors contributing to shrinking cities include population aging, low birth rates, and regional development imbalances, leading to resource and talent concentration in coastal areas [17][19]. - Micro factors include population outflow, a decline in job opportunities, and a stagnant real estate market, exacerbating the shrinking phenomenon [27][29]. Group 4: Transformation Paths for Shrinking Cities - Strategies for transformation include "smart shrinkage," focusing on quality and efficiency rather than mere expansion, optimizing urban space, and developing new industries [38][39]. - Specific development paths for resource-dependent cities involve leveraging local resources for new industries, while cultural tourism and ecological cities are emerging as viable options for others [40][41]. Group 5: Policy Responses - National policies emphasize the need for "smart shrinkage" strategies, optimizing administrative divisions, and avoiding blind expansion to enhance urban quality and competitiveness [43][44]. - Future policy recommendations include establishing monitoring mechanisms for shrinking cities, implementing differentiated support policies, and promoting regional collaboration for resource sharing [46][47].
李迅雷专栏 | 失温时为何会感受到“热”
中泰证券资管· 2025-09-10 11:32
Core Viewpoint - The article draws a parallel between human hypothermia and economic conditions, suggesting that when the economy is "hypothermic," it may create a false sense of warmth, leading to misinterpretations of economic health [1][4]. Economic Data vs. Perception - Economic data often lags behind real-time events, leading to a disconnect between actual economic conditions and public perception [4]. - Japan's economic stagnation over 30 years post-bubble burst is highlighted as a case study, where the Consumer Price Index (CPI) only increased by 7.5% from 1991 to 2021, averaging an annual growth of just 0.25% [4][6]. Japan's Economic Decline - Japan's per capita GDP in 1991 was $28,666, peaking at $38,467 in 1994, but by 2024, it is projected to be only $32,420, indicating a significant decline when adjusted for inflation [6][9]. - The Nikkei 225 index peaked at 38,900 points in 1989 but fell to around 8,700 points by 2012, illustrating the prolonged economic downturn [9][11]. Policy Misjudgments - Japanese authorities underestimated the impact of the real estate bubble's collapse, leading to ineffective economic policies [11][12]. - The Bank of Japan's delayed response in shifting from tight to loose monetary policy contributed to the prolonged economic stagnation [12]. Ineffective Fiscal Policies - Japan's fiscal policies oscillated between expansion and contraction, lacking coherence and effectiveness, which hindered economic recovery [12][25]. - Public works spending was often misallocated, focusing on low-impact infrastructure projects in declining regions, leading to wasted resources [15][25]. Lessons from Japan's Experience - The article emphasizes the importance of targeted investment in emerging industries to avoid economic stagnation, as Japan failed to capitalize on new sectors like technology and renewable energy [19][20]. - Japan's experience serves as a cautionary tale about the dangers of misallocated public spending and the need for coherent economic policies to foster growth [27][28].
疫情期间连口罩都造不出来,为什么还有人相信美国制造业"随时能爆发"?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-06 03:55
Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the belief in a sudden resurgence of American manufacturing is misguided, highlighting the significant decline in manufacturing's contribution to GDP and the challenges faced in revitalizing the sector [1][3][7]. Group 1: Manufacturing Decline - The share of manufacturing in the U.S. GDP has decreased from 16% in the 1990s to 11% in 2022, indicating a substantial decline in the sector [3]. - The notion that the U.S. has voluntarily abandoned low-value industries is challenged, with the argument that high costs have forced businesses to retreat from manufacturing [3][5]. Group 2: Challenges in Revitalization - The U.S. has invested heavily in initiatives like the CHIPS and Science Act ($280 billion) and the Inflation Reduction Act ($370 billion) to address the lack of manufacturing capabilities [3]. - The article emphasizes that the U.S. struggled to produce basic items like masks during the pandemic, showcasing the weakened industrial base [5][7]. Group 3: Global Manufacturing Landscape - China produced 1.019 billion tons of crude steel in 2023, accounting for 54% of global output, while the U.S. produced only 81 million tons, less than one-tenth of China's output [3]. - The article points out that the U.S. defense sector is heavily reliant on foreign manufacturing for critical components, illustrating the consequences of deindustrialization [5][7]. Group 4: Misconceptions about High-End Manufacturing - While the U.S. excels in high-end manufacturing and technology sectors, these advantages depend on a robust manufacturing base, which is currently lacking [7]. - The article critiques the mindset that dismisses low-end manufacturing as unimportant, arguing that modern industry relies on a comprehensive ecosystem of production [7].
欧洲专题系列2:产业空心化与政治光谱右移
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-09-02 07:14
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Europe's decline is a chronic process, with industrial hollowing - out being a representative phenomenon, which is the result of the continuous decline of European manufacturing competitiveness and is further amplified by the global industrial chain reconstruction [1][13]. - The direct cause of European industrial hollowing - out is the energy crisis and cost imbalance, while the deeper reason is the long - term "capital laziness, lack of enterprise, and poor financing environment for technology companies", leading to Europe missing technological revolutions [13]. - The exhaustion of innovation momentum has made Europe lag behind in disruptive technology fields, and industrial hollowing - out has caused social chain reactions, leading to a right - shift in the political spectrum [2][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 European Different Regions' Pillar Industries - Northern Europe focuses on green technology and high - value - added industries, with leading positions in clean energy and high - end manufacturing [15]. - Western Europe is dominated by advanced manufacturing and high - end services, with strengths in aerospace, semiconductors, finance, and luxury industries [16][17]. - Central Europe is a manufacturing cluster base, especially Germany in high - end and precision manufacturing, and also has some mid - low - end manufacturing [17]. - Southern Europe relies on tourism and agriculture, with Italy and Spain having relatively complete manufacturing systems [18]. - Eastern Europe is resource - driven and has received some industrial transfers, but also faces geopolitical challenges [18]. - Northern, Western, and Central Europe have better economic development and more high - end pillar industries, while Eastern and Southern Europe are relatively backward [19]. 3.2 European Industrial Transfer and Industrial Hollowing - out Trend - The industrial hollowing - out is manifested in the decline of the manufacturing share in GDP, the transfer of production lines, and the loss of control over key industrial chain links [13]. - Taking the automotive industry as an example, the global automotive industry chain has gone through four stages of transfer, and European automotive industry's market share has declined since 2013 [35][36]. - The machinery manufacturing industry has also experienced three stages of transfer, and European industrial transfer is mostly in the third or fourth round and is difficult to reverse [42][58]. 3.3 European Political Spectrum Right - shift and Policy Helplessness - Central and Western European economies are more right - leaning, corresponding to economically strong countries and regions with industrial losses [59]. - From 2018 to 2025, the European political spectrum has shifted significantly to the right, with an increase in the average value from 0.97 to 1.48 [62]. - The right - shift is due to traditional parties' inability to solve economic and social problems, but right - wing parties' solutions cannot address the core issues [66].
美国突然收到一封“投降书”!台湾将掏出所有家底双手奉上
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-01 20:34
Group 1 - The U.S. imposed a 20% tariff on Taiwanese exports, which is higher than the 15% tariffs on Japan and South Korea, significantly impacting Taiwan's economy that heavily relies on exports, particularly in semiconductors and electronics [2][3] - Taiwan's trade surplus with the U.S. reached $64.9 billion, primarily from semiconductors, machinery, and textiles, prompting the U.S. to use tariffs as leverage to open Taiwanese markets [2][3] - If the tariffs remain high, Taiwan's exports to the U.S. could decline by 15%, potentially leading to a GDP contraction of approximately 3.8% [2][7] Group 2 - Taiwan agreed to invest an additional $250 billion in the U.S. over four years, focusing on artificial intelligence and semiconductors, with TSMC planning to build advanced factories in the U.S. [5] - Taiwan's military and energy procurement from the U.S. is projected to exceed $300 billion over the next decade, with ongoing military sales indicating a strong defense partnership [5][9] - The economic dependency on the U.S. has raised concerns about Taiwan's long-term economic stability, with potential job losses and increased pressure on local industries [7][9] Group 3 - The trade tensions have led to a shift in Taiwanese companies' supply chains, with some moving operations to the U.S. to mitigate the impact of tariffs, raising concerns about industrial hollowing [7][9] - The overall economic situation in Taiwan is deteriorating, with rising prices and industry challenges, as the reliance on the U.S. continues to be questioned by the public [9]
失温时为何会感受到“热”︱重阳荐文
重阳投资· 2025-09-01 07:31
Core Viewpoint - The article draws a parallel between human hypothermia and economic conditions, suggesting that just as individuals can misinterpret their body temperature in extreme cold, markets can misinterpret economic signals, leading to potential misjudgments about economic health [1]. Economic Data vs. Perception - Economic data often lags behind real-time events, leading to discrepancies between actual economic conditions and public perception [7]. - Japan's economy has experienced a prolonged period of stagnation, referred to as the "lost thirty years," characterized by minimal inflation and economic growth [10]. Japan's Economic Performance - Japan's CPI index showed only a 7.5% increase from 1991 to 2021, averaging an annual growth rate of 0.25% [10]. - In terms of GDP, Japan's per capita GDP in 2024 is projected to be $32,420, which, when adjusted for inflation, represents a 33% decline from 30 years ago [10][12]. Stock Market Trends - The Nikkei 225 index peaked at 38,900 points in 1989 but fell significantly over the following decades, illustrating the long-term economic decline [13]. - Despite experiencing several technical bull markets, the overall trend remains downward due to a lack of new industries and innovation [21][23]. Policy Missteps - Japanese authorities underestimated the impact of the real estate bubble's collapse, leading to delayed and ineffective policy responses [16]. - The Bank of Japan's slow transition from tight to loose monetary policy contributed to prolonged economic stagnation [16][17]. Infrastructure Investment Issues - Japan's public works spending has often been misallocated, focusing on low-impact projects in declining regions rather than stimulating private consumption and investment [20][29]. - The inefficacy of infrastructure investments has led to increased government debt without corresponding economic recovery [29]. Lessons from Japan's Experience - The article emphasizes the importance of targeted investment in emerging industries rather than excessive spending on infrastructure with diminishing returns [29]. - It highlights the need for coherent and consistent fiscal policies to avoid the pitfalls of Japan's past, particularly in the context of an aging population and rising government debt [32].
失温时为何会感受到“热”
Core Viewpoint - The article draws a parallel between human hypothermia and economic stagnation, suggesting that just as individuals can misinterpret their physical sensations in extreme cold, markets can also misinterpret economic signals, leading to false perceptions of economic health [1][2]. Economic Data vs. Perception - Economic data often lags behind real-time events, leading to discrepancies between actual economic conditions and public perception [2]. - The case of Japan's "lost 30 years" illustrates how prolonged economic stagnation can occur despite seemingly positive data, as evidenced by Japan's CPI growth from 1991 to 2021 being only 7.5% [2][5]. Japan's Economic Stagnation - Japan's per capita GDP in 1991 was $28,666, peaking at $38,467 in 1994, but by 2024, it is projected to be only $32,420, indicating a significant decline when adjusted for inflation [5][7]. - The Nikkei 225 index peaked at 38,900 points in 1989 but fell to around 8,700 points by 2012, reflecting a long-term economic decline [7][10]. Policy Misjudgments - Japanese authorities underestimated the impact of the real estate bubble burst, leading to ineffective policy responses that failed to stimulate recovery [10][11]. - The Bank of Japan's delayed shift from tight to loose monetary policy contributed to prolonged deflation, with interest rates remaining high until 1995 [11]. Ineffective Fiscal Policies - Japan's fiscal policies oscillated between expansion and contraction, lacking coherence and effectiveness, which hindered economic recovery [11][12]. - Public works spending increased significantly in the 1990s, but much of it was directed towards low-impact projects in declining regions, resulting in wasted resources [12][14]. Lessons from Japan's Experience - Japan's experience highlights the importance of targeted investment in sectors that can drive growth, rather than indiscriminate infrastructure spending [23][27]. - The need for a coherent industrial policy to foster new industries is critical, as Japan has struggled to innovate in emerging sectors like technology and renewable energy [17][23]. Conclusion - The article emphasizes that while increasing public investment can stabilize growth, it must be strategically directed to avoid economic imbalances and ensure effective use of resources [27][28].