Core Insights - The era of low interest rates in Japan is coming to an end as the belief in Japanese government bonds is being challenged due to rising inflation [1][3][5] - The underlying cause of this inflation is structural, stemming from Japan's manufacturing hollowing, declining birth rates, and prolonged low interest rates and currency depreciation [1][4][13] Group 1: End of Low Interest Rates - Japan's low interest rates have been a narrative for nearly 30 years, attributed to the aftermath of the real estate bubble burst [3] - In 2022, Japan experienced inflation exceeding 3%, marking a significant departure from its historical low inflation rates [4][5] - This inflation is sustained in a context where global oil prices have declined, indicating a shift from previous patterns of temporary inflation spikes [4][5] Group 2: Factors Behind the Current Inflation - Japan's inflation is influenced by external factors, particularly high inflation abroad, as Japan is sensitive to imported inflation due to its reliance on imports for basic resources [6][7] - The long-term undervaluation of the yen has amplified imported inflation, with a 10% depreciation of the yen estimated to increase the CPI by approximately 0.8 percentage points over eight quarters [9][10] - The initiation of a wage-price spiral is a key factor in the current inflation, driven by labor market imbalances and increased demand in the service sector [11][12] Group 3: Historical Context and Structural Changes - The reasons for Japan's previous low inflation and interest rates are now contributing to the current inflationary pressures, including the hollowing out of industries and a demographic shift towards an aging population [13][14][19] - Japan's shift towards globalization post-2001 has led to a reliance on imports, exacerbating its sensitivity to input inflation [15][16] - The prolonged low interest rate policies and quantitative easing have created a scenario where the weak yen has become a catalyst for current inflation [17][18]

01 时代分野：两种路径的清晰对照 21世纪的全球经济格局，呈现出中美两国截然不同的产业发展图景。 一个路径清晰可见：以美国为代表的部分发达国家，经历了激进的"去工业化"过程，将制造环节大规模转移到成本更低的 国家和地区，国内经济重心转向金融、科技等虚拟经济。 经济"空心化"成为这些国家挥之不去的阴影。以制造业为核心的物质生产和资本大量向外转移，导致物质生产在国内经济 中的地位显著下降。 另一条路径同样明确：中国始终坚持将发展经济的着力点放在实体经济上，尤其是制造业。尽管中国已是世界第一工业大 国，制造业规模连续15年稳居世界第一，但国家仍将"保持制造业合理比重"视为重大战略任务。 中国制造业的发展成果显著。从2020年的26.6万亿元增长到2024年的33.6万亿元，仅"十四五"期间的制造业增加值增量就预 计达到8万亿元，对全球制造业增长贡献率超过30%。 02 美国困境：产业空心化的多重代价 美国曾经是"世界工厂"，如今却面临制造业基础被削弱的严峻挑战。 这一进程的直观恶果是制造业产业体系出现严重损坏。以波音公司为例，这家美国制造业的标杆企业，如今高度依赖全球 供应链来生产飞机零部件，其本土制造能力已大幅 ...

凛冬已至，日本经济的寒意愈发浓烈。曾经人声鼎沸的大阪关西机场，如今却透着一股令人不安的冷清。免税店门可罗雀，酒店入住率暴跌，这萧条景象远 比冰冷的数据更具冲击力，如同一面镜子，映照着日本经济的窘境。而这一切的根源，都指向了那场始于高市早苗的政治豪赌。 时间回溯到2025年11月7日，在高市早苗在国会辩论中公然发表涉台言论，声称"台海冲突可能触发日本存亡危机事态"，甚至暗示自卫队可能介入。这番言 论如同在干柴上点燃了一把火，瞬间激怒了中方。更令人担忧的是，这并非深思熟虑的战略，而是一场为了迎合右翼势力的即兴表演。 然而，高市早苗或许并未料到，她强硬表态的背后，却隐藏着一场经济风暴。12月，中日航线骤然遇冷，近2200个航班瞬间蒸发，连接中日26座城市与18座 机场的46条航线陷入一片沉寂。昔日繁忙的空中走廊，如今只剩下一串串触目惊心的红色取消代码。 航班骤减，犹如一把利刃，直插日本经济的要害。每减少一班航班，都意味着无数商业机会的流失，无数家庭收入的缩水。这种具体的、可感知的痛楚，正 在日本社会蔓延，并转化为对政府无能的愤怒。数据不会撒谎，航班的消失，不仅是数量的减少，更是信心的崩塌。 然而，更令人玩味的是，就 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of Hainan's recent closure and its potential as a free trade zone, highlighting both opportunities and risks associated with this transition [4][5][7]. Group 1: Economic Opportunities - Hainan's closure represents a significant leap towards a higher level of openness, offering a unique environment characterized by "zero tariffs, low tax rates, and simplified tax systems" [5][7]. - The potential for Hainan to become a new Singapore and the heart of the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) is emphasized, contingent on overcoming development bottlenecks [8]. - The introduction of the policy allowing "30% value-added processing to be exempt from tariffs" is seen as a key to reshaping the real economy in Hainan [17]. Group 2: Industrial Challenges - Hainan's economic structure is described as "dumbbell-shaped," with a weak industrial base, relying heavily on agriculture and low-end tourism [9][10]. - The risk of falling into "industrial hollowing" is highlighted, where the economy could become overly reliant on service sectors without a solid manufacturing foundation [11][14]. - Historical examples suggest that economies lacking a robust industrial backbone ultimately face challenges in employment and income stability [14][15]. Group 3: Strategic Development Areas - Three key sectors for development are identified: luxury goods assembly, biomedicine, and future technologies like aerospace and deep-sea industries [19][22][25]. - The luxury goods sector can benefit from a model where high-value assembly occurs in Hainan, leveraging its tariff exemptions [20][21]. - The biomedicine sector can utilize special policies in Boao Lecheng to import and assemble advanced medical devices, enhancing local capabilities [22][24]. Group 4: Logistics and Connectivity - Hainan's geographical isolation poses challenges for becoming a global shipping hub, as it is not located on major shipping routes [28][30]. - The article suggests that Hainan should focus on creating a "functional platform" rather than merely competing on logistics speed [34]. - Strategies include leveraging "seventh freedom rights" for air travel and establishing a competitive fuel pricing model to attract international shipping [35][41]. Group 5: Unique Selling Propositions - Hainan's potential lies in offering unique privileges that cannot be found elsewhere in China, particularly in healthcare, education, data access, airspace, and culture [52][53]. - The establishment of international medical facilities and educational institutions can attract both domestic and international students, capturing significant educational spending [57][59]. - The development of a "digital nomad zone" with unrestricted internet access aims to attract global talent, enhancing Hainan's appeal as a destination for professionals [61]. Group 6: Future Challenges - The article outlines a "triangle dilemma" that Hainan must navigate: overcoming geographical disadvantages, avoiding industrial homogenization, and preventing economic hollowing [64]. - The success of Hainan will depend on integrating high-level open policies with unique local resources to create a vibrant economic ecosystem [65].

我们都习惯了美国GDP全球第一的认知，但马斯克却说这很可能是个"包装"。 他曾预言，表示中国未来的综合国力可能会是美的3倍以上，最次也是2倍左右！ 这话乍听夸张，可越往深处扒越有道理。 7亿吨粮食、10倍钢铁 要真正看清一个国家的实力，就必须撕开GDP这层精美的包装纸，去触摸里面的干货。 马斯克，这位全球顶级的制造业巨头，就一针见血地指出了问题的核心，工农业的实际生产能力，才是一个国家真正的底牌。 前言 走进中国的任何一个超市，琳琅满目的商品背后，是全球唯一全产业链体系的强大支撑，这份"随心所欲"的购物自由，本身就是国家实力最直观的体现。 38万亿国债、过半虚拟经济 然而，当我们把目光投向大洋彼岸，看到的却是另一番景象，一个被GDP高数字掩盖的、脆弱的巨人。 美国29万亿美元的GDP光环背后，是高达38.4万亿美元的巨额国债，这个数字还在不断攀升，像一个不断膨胀的气球。 更令人忧心的是，每年需要支付的国债利息，已经惊人地超过了其国防开支，这意味着国家运转的成本，正在被债务利息无情吞噬。 他的观点并非空穴来风，而是对经济规律最朴素的洞察，一个国家能养活多少人，能驱动多少机器，这才是硬道理。 中国的粮仓，就是这份 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the declining support for Trump due to rising living costs and economic dissatisfaction among American households, mirroring the previous discontent that led to Biden's downfall [1][9]. Group 1: Support Decline - A recent poll shows Trump's approval of economic policies dropped from 70% to 53%, a decline of 17 percentage points, highlighting growing public dissatisfaction [3]. - Rising prices of essential goods, such as beef increasing by nearly 30%, contribute to the frustration of American families [3]. - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revised employment data downwards, indicating a weakening job market, which exacerbates the financial strain on households [5]. Group 2: Economic Mismanagement - Trump's initial economic reputation as a savior has deteriorated as inflation continues to rise, affecting household budgets significantly [7][9]. - The implementation of tariffs intended to protect domestic industries led to a 40% increase in imported steel prices, resulting in layoffs and increased consumer costs [12]. - The disconnect between economic policies and the realities faced by citizens is a primary reason for Trump's declining support [7][25]. Group 3: Political Consequences - Internal White House memos indicate that the administration is aware of the potential electoral consequences if living cost issues are not addressed [15][25]. - Trump's attempts to downplay the cost of living issues have backfired, leading to public backlash and further erosion of trust [18]. - The article emphasizes that the fundamental economic problems, such as job quality and inflation, remain unresolved, affecting both Biden and Trump administrations [26][28].

2025年刚入夏，风向又变了——财政部长贝森特突然成了靶心。 特朗普在一场非正式场合里半开玩笑地说，要是他搞不定美联储，让联邦基金利率按总统的意思往下调，那就"卷铺盖走人"。 这话听着像随口一提，可华盛顿的政治圈谁不知道，越是轻描淡写的话，越可能藏着真意。 贝森特不是赫格塞斯那种政坛新丁，也不是靠口号混进内阁的网红政客。 他懂资本市场，清楚货币政策的传导机制，明白美联储的独立性不是总统一句话就能抹平的制度安排。 他尝试过协调，努力在白宫和联储之间搭桥，但桥还没架稳，桥下已经灌满火药。 总统要的是利率立刻降下来，好让股市再冲一波，好让选票多捞几百万。 而美联储盯着的是通胀数据、劳动力市场、金融稳定——这些不是靠行政命令就能摆平的变量。 特朗普拿美联储没辙。 这家机构自1913年成立以来，哪怕在大萧条、二战、滞胀危机甚至2008年全球金融海啸中，也从未真正屈从于白宫的直接指令。 总统可以施压，可以放风，可以在推特上骂街，但法律和制度筑起的防火墙，比白宫玫瑰园的围墙还厚实。 于是，火气只能往别处撒。 财长成了最方便的泄压阀。 这不只是人事问题，更不是白宫内部的权力小游戏。 贝森特的困境，是美国整个经济结构失衡的缩影 ...

与此同时，中国却稳坐钓鱼台。 尽管中国铝土矿储量只占全球3%左右，但已经形成了从铝土矿进口、氧化铝提炼到电解铝生产的全产业链闭环。 2025年前 11个月，中国原铝产量达到4120万吨，同比增长2.5%，像一块压舱石撑住了全球供应。 中国的关键优势在电力保障上：炼铝是"电老虎"，每吨铝要耗电 13600到14400度，而云南、四川的水电价格每度只要两三毛钱，比欧美便宜一半以上。 反观美国，AI数据中心和铝厂抢电，电价节节攀升，进一步挤压了 铝厂的生存空间。 美国原本想靠囤积铜资源来卡全球制造业的脖子，结果铜价还没彻底起飞，自己先被铝价暴涨打懵了。 2025年7月，美国未锻轧铝进口量跌到历史最低点， 库存几乎见底，而伦敦金属交易所的铝价却冲破2890美元一吨，直奔3000美元大关。美国囤积的铜库存占全球交易所的62%，但铝的年消耗量高达7700多万 吨，是铜的2.8倍，这种"抓小放大"的操作，直接让美国从"卡脖者"变成了"求饶者"。 美国的算盘一开始打得很响。 铜被称为"工业血液"，控制铜资源就能捏住新能源、AI等高端制造业的命脉。 2025年初，美国通过关税政策和国际采购，把 纽约商品交易所的铜库存堆到了全球 ...

哈喽，大家好，小圆这篇国际评论，主要来分析近期美国经济圈的连环暴击，美联储刚急匆匆宣布降息 救市，紧接着失业数据就爆出五年来最差表现，这两个噩耗叠在一起，让人不禁想问：如今的美国，还 剩多少筹码能跟中国抗衡？ 其实从美联储的鹰派降息到就业市场的突然崩盘，背后藏着美国经济的深层隐患，而中国这边的稳健操 作，恰好形成了鲜明对比。 失业数据飙破纪录 12月刚过半，美国劳工部门就抛出了一颗"炸弹"：截至12月6日当周，首次申领失业金的人数飙到23.6 万，比前一周的19.2万暴涨了4.4万，这个增幅直接创下2020年疫情爆发以来的新高，可能有朋友觉得数 字不够直观。 给大家捋捋：这不仅远超市场预期的22万，更打破了此前连续数周的下降趋势，相当于一周内突然多了 近5万人失去工作保障，要知道2020年疫情时，美国靠4.8万亿美元的天量刺激才稳住就业，如今这个数 据直逼当时，足见经济基本面的脆弱。 可放水这招早就不灵了，2020年的4.8万亿美元刺激，已经让美国债务高企，如今再搞新一轮刺激，无 非是拆东墙补西墙，更尴尬的是美联储内部已经分裂，19名官员里有7人主张2026年不降息，3人甚至要 加息，能达成降息共识全靠就业数 ...

编辑：N 为什么说不卖就不卖了？ 11月底，意大利北部的工厂里，机器依然轰鸣，订单排到了明年夏天，可这里的主人已经换了。 东方精工把Fosber集团，连同它那200多项工业4.0专利，一起打包卖给了美国博枫，价格是63亿人民 币。 这笔账，怎么看都像是亏了，你想想，这可是贡献了公司三分之二营收的印钞机啊。 前言 说实话，看到东方精工把年赚76.4%增长的"现金牛"卖了，第一反应也是：疯了吧？ 可这背后，是一位佛山老板冷酷的算盘，当荷兰动用冷战法案打压中国芯片公司，他看到的不再是利润 表，而是一张巨大的风险表。 为何好资产成了烫手山芋？欧洲的明天会怎样？ 净利润去年还暴涨了76.4%，北美市场一半以上的高端设备都源自这里，说不要就不要了？ 可那位神秘的佛山老板，却表现得异常冷静，甚至可以说是冷酷，在他的算盘上，这笔买卖划得来。 要理解这份冷静，得回到十年前，2014年，东方精工花了7400万欧元，第一次买下了Fosber的部分股 权。 那在当时，可是一桩漂亮的"蛇吞象"，央视都专门报道了，说这是中欧制造业合作的典范。 十年间，东方精工一步步增持，最终实现了100%控股，把这家欧洲细分领域的隐形冠军，真的变成了 ...