Today marks 13 years since the first Bitcoin Halving, a milestone that changed the market forever.But what was it, exactly? Why does it matter, and how has it shaped crypto?Read the full breakdown ⤵️ ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin miners are facing new structural risks related to power contracts, firmware systems, and hosting agreements as the industry approaches the new year [1] - These vulnerabilities could influence the control of Bitcoin's hash rate and determine which companies survive amid increasing competition for power [2] - The mining sector's focus on halvings, machine efficiency, and price swings may overlook deeper issues related to contracts, software, and energy access [3] Industry Dynamics - Mining pool concentration is a significant concern, with just six pools producing over 95% of blocks as of 2025 [3] - The concentration of mining pools allows them to control transaction inclusion or exclusion, which could impact Bitcoin's censorship resistance if collusion occurs [4] - Lenders, firmware vendors, and hosting providers may exert influence over mining operations through contracts and management software, potentially shifting hash power without direct action from miners [4] Energy Market Changes - Since the launch of Bitcoin in 2009, miners have relied on power costs below $0.03 per kilowatt hour, but competition for electricity is increasing as data center operators build AI infrastructure [5] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects wholesale electricity prices to rise to about $51 per megawatt hour in 2026, an increase of approximately 8.5% from current levels [5] Software and Regulatory Pressures - Control over mining firmware and pool software represents a vulnerability, as it allows external parties to apply pressure on mining operations [6] - Regulatory or corporate pressures can target software stacks, enabling actions like KYC enforcement, payout freezes, and template censorship without altering Bitcoin's main protocol [7]

Bitcoin Halving Event - Next Bitcoin halving is 40% complete [1] - Halving block is set at 1,050,000 [1] - Approximately 125,766 blocks remain until the next halving [1] - Estimated 874 days remaining until the next halving [1]

Market Catalysts & Trends - The crypto market anticipates a significant catalyst, potentially larger than previous ones like the Genius Act and ETF approvals, which could substantially increase the Bitcoin price [1][2] - Google searches for crypto are at a bottom, indicating minimal retail interest, which historically suggests a potential buying opportunity [2][3] - Stablecoin market share continues to grow, with Ethereum dominance increasing from approximately 49-50% to 55% [10][11] Regulatory Landscape - The Clarity Act (market structure bill) is identified as a potential catalyst for the crypto industry, similar to the Genius Act's impact on stablecoins [16][17] - Prediction markets suggest a 33% chance of the Clarity Act being signed into law in 2025, a decrease from 37% due to a previous government shutdown [20] - The Genius Act had bipartisan support, indicating broad interest in crypto regulation [23] Company Performance & Stablecoin Adoption - Circle, the company behind USDC stablecoin, reported a 66% year-over-year revenue growth, reaching $740 million [6] - USDC usage on blockchains saw an enormous increase, reaching $96 trillion of volume in the quarter, up from $59 trillion in the prior quarter and over 600% year-over-year [6] - Stablecoins are viewed as a "Trojan horse" and an on-ramp for capital into blockchain products, with potential for trillions of dollars to flow into stablecoins [12][13]

Group 1: Market Liquidity Trends - The total global stablecoin market cap has decreased from $309 billion to $305 billion in November 2025, indicating the first contraction after two years of growth, suggesting weaker liquidity ahead [1] - USDT supply is declining, which is a common early indicator of capital flowing out of risk assets, historically leading to downward pressure on Bitcoin [2] - ETF inflows and Digital Asset Trusts (DATs) are also showing signs of fatigue, confirming a broad-based cooling of liquidity across the market [3] Group 2: Bitcoin Halving and Market Dynamics - The traditional Bitcoin Halving model, which has historically triggered major price rallies, may no longer be valid as liquidity expansion and halving are not aligning in 2025 [6] - Analysts suggest that global liquidity, influenced by the Federal Reserve and ETF flows, is the real market catalyst, potentially extending the current cycle into 2026 [6] - Adez Research argues that large market makers may be promoting a liquidity narrative that lacks real data support, indicating a disconnect between narrative and actual market conditions [7] Group 3: Historical Analysis and Correlation - An analysis of Bitcoin's historical cycles since 2013 shows no consistent correlation between changes in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and Bitcoin's performance, undermining the Liquidity Bitcoin Halving correlation thesis [8]

Core Insights - The Bitcoin mining industry is facing significant profitability challenges, with hash prices dropping to around $42 per petahash per second (PH/s), nearing break-even levels that threaten smaller mining operations [1][7] - The hash price has been on a downward trend since July, when it peaked at $62 per PH/s, leading to concerns about the viability of weaker miners and prompting larger firms to tighten spending [2][7] - The total hashrate of the Bitcoin network has surpassed 1 zetahash per second (ZH/s), increasing electricity and hardware demands, while many mining firms are shifting focus to AI infrastructure for better margins [5][7] Industry Impact - The decline in hash prices is affecting the entire mining supply chain, with hardware providers experiencing slower sales as miners delay or cancel orders [3] - Manufacturers like Bitdeer are pivoting to self-mining and exploring opportunities in AI and high-performance computing (HPC) to counteract declining hardware demand [4] - Major mining firms, such as Cipher Mining and IREN, are diversifying their business models by securing multi-billion-dollar AI infrastructure deals with tech giants like Amazon and Microsoft [6][7]

Industry Overview - The Bitcoin network hashrate reached a record high in October, with a monthly average increase of 5% to 1,082 exahashes per second (EH/s) [1] - Mining difficulty rose by 3% from the end of September and is 80% higher compared to the difficulty before the recent halving in April 2024 [2] Mining Economics - Miners earned an average of $48,000 per EH/s in daily block reward revenue in October, which is a 3% decrease from September [3] - Daily block reward gross profit fell by 4% [3] Market Performance - The combined market cap of 14 U.S.-listed mining companies tracked by the bank increased by $14 billion, or 25%, reaching $70 billion last month, driven by high-performance computing (HPC) announcements and a shift towards AI [3] - Ciper Mining (CIFR) outperformed the group with a 48% increase, while Cango (CANG) underperformed with a 5% decline, being the only mining company covered that performed worse than Bitcoin, which fell by 3.9% [4]

Bitcoin Halving Progress - Bitcoin 下一次减半进度已完成约 39% [1] - 剩余区块数量约为 128,084 个 [1] - 预计剩余天数约为 889 天 [1] Block Information - 当前区块高度为 921,916 [1] - 减半区块高度为 1,050,000 [1]

🚨 LATEST: Mid-tier Bitcoin miners surge post-halving. https://t.co/F1UuYMdKYE ...

Next ₿itcoin Halving Progress▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░░░░░░░░░░ 38%Loading…Please HODLCurrent Block: 920,265Halving Block: 1,050,000Blocks Remaining: 129,735Days Remaining: ~900 days ...