Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin is experiencing a pullback in 2025 after two years of significant returns, with a 6% decline over the past 30 days and only a 20% increase for the year, indicating potential challenges ahead for the cryptocurrency market [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - Bitcoin's historical uncorrelation with major asset classes is diminishing, making it more vulnerable to macroeconomic conditions such as job growth, inflation, and tariffs [2][4] - Institutional investors are now driving Bitcoin adoption, shifting focus towards potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, which may impact Bitcoin's performance [5] Group 2: Diversification into Other Crypto Assets - Despite Bitcoin's dominance, accounting for nearly 60% of the crypto market cap, there is growing interest in other cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum, Solana, and XRP, which could divert investment away from Bitcoin [6][7] - The stablecoin market is projected to grow significantly, potentially reaching $3.7 trillion, indicating a shift in investor interest that could further impact Bitcoin [8] Group 3: Bitcoin Cycle Dynamics - The four-year Bitcoin cycle suggests that a pullback may be expected as the cycle progresses, with historical patterns indicating a potential "blow-off top" followed by a steep decline [10][11] - The most recent halving event in April 2024 places Bitcoin 17 months into a period typically associated with price appreciation, raising concerns about an impending downturn [12] - Signs of speculative excess are emerging, with significant investments in digital assets and a rush of new crypto companies seeking public offerings, suggesting a potential market correction [13]

Market Sentiment - The report questions whether the current Bitcoin cycle is different from previous ones, suggesting a need for honest assessment [1]

Market Trends - Global liquidity is expected to rise into 2026 [1] - The Bitcoin cycle isn't over yet [1]

What month or year do you think Bitcoin’s current cycle will end? 🤔 ...

I asked @matthew_sigel if the 4-year bitcoin cycle is over?Here is what he said: https://t.co/ObwtlwsJiJ ...

Do you think the Bitcoin cycle has peaked?Yes or No? 🤔 ...

Is the 4-year Bitcoin cycle dead?Let me know your thoughts below ⬇️ ...

🚨BITCOIN CYCLE ISN'T OVER🚨Each Bitcoin cycle has lasted approximately 1,070 days from the bottom of the bear market to the bull market peak.If this trend continues, the bull market is expected to last until October 20, 2025. 🤔 https://t.co/6tLHf8wGwz ...

This Bitcoin cycle isn’t being driven by retail.On-chain data shows small holders are selling while institutions are quietly accumulating.What happens when retail finally wakes up 👀 https://t.co/cfBm5FZJYO ...

But here's the thing. Every prior cycle when Bitcoin closes two weekly candles below the 50week moving average, the cycle's over, right. It's over at that point.Okay. So, think about that, right. When that happens, I'm not saying use that as an indicator to figure out when to sell because by that point, you know, the bare market's already halfway over.Uh but you can see that when you get two weekly closes below that level, cycle's over. So this is the thing to watch for going into the third quarter this yea ...