Market Overview - The S&P 500 Index is down -0.83%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index is down -0.42%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index is down -1.16%, marking a decline for the third consecutive session [1][2] - Rising bond yields are negatively impacting stock prices, with the 10-year T-note yield reaching a 3-week high, up +2 basis points [2] Economic Indicators - US Q2 GDP was revised upward to +3.8% (quarter-over-quarter annualized), exceeding expectations of no change at +3.3% [3] - Q2 personal consumption was revised upward to +2.5%, surpassing expectations of +1.7% [3] - The Q2 core PCE price index was unexpectedly revised upward to +2.6%, compared to expectations of no change at +2.5% [3] - Weekly initial unemployment claims fell by -14,000 to a 2-month low of 218,000, indicating a stronger labor market than the anticipated increase to 233,000 [3] Capital Spending and Corporate Earnings - US August core capital goods new orders rose +0.6% month-over-month, stronger than expectations of no change, indicating robust capital spending [4] - Rising corporate earnings expectations are providing a bullish backdrop for stocks, with over 22% of S&P 500 companies guiding for Q3 earnings that are expected to exceed analysts' expectations, the highest in a year [5] - S&P companies are projected to achieve +6.9% earnings growth in Q3, an increase from +6.7% as of the end of May [5] Federal Reserve Commentary - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid indicated that the Fed may not need to lower interest rates soon, describing the current policy stance as "slightly restrictive" due to high inflation and a balanced labor market [4]

We've got one day after the Fed cuts rates and signaled more cuts ahead at least through the end of this year. We've got stocks jumping to record highs, bond yields moving up as well. So here to explain all of this, Alon's chief economic adviser and former Pinco CEO, Muhammad Alarian.Muhammad, it's great to have you back on the show. Welcome. >> Thanks for having me, Morgan.>> Man, talk about volatility in the in the Treasury market here. I mean, you had a 10-year yield that broke below 4% at one point yest ...

Monetary Policy - The Fed's "third mandate" is a topic of discussion on Wall Street [1] - Traders are reassessing assumptions that have influenced bond yields for decades [1]

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Group 1 - The bond issuance volume has decreased in the current quarter, with yields hardening, leading to a potential withdrawal of corporates from the bond market back to banks [1][7] - The 10-year bond yield has risen to 6.6%, while state government 30-year bond yields have increased to 7.5% [1][7] - The Reserve Bank of India's 100 basis point reduction in the policy repo rate since February was expected to boost bank credit offtake, but large corporations have relied more on market-based instruments like commercial paper and corporate bonds [2][7] Group 2 - Commercial paper issuances by non-financial entities rose to ₹0.78 lakh crore in the first quarter of the fiscal year, compared to ₹0.30 lakh crore in the same period last year [3][7] - Corporate bonds issued by non-financial entities increased to ₹0.95 lakh crore in the same quarter, up from ₹0.09 lakh crore a year ago [3][7] - Non-food bank credit grew by 9.9% year-on-year in the fortnight ended July 25, 2025, down from 13.6% in the same period the previous year [5][7] Group 3 - The credit to industry recorded a moderated year-on-year growth of 6% compared to 10.2% in the corresponding fortnight of last year [5][7] - The Indian banking sector is expected to see an incremental credit demand of ₹323 lakh crore over the next 11 years to support an average GDP growth of 7% [6][7] - India's current credit-to-GDP ratio stands at 65%, significantly lower than over 100% for developed economies, indicating a need for improvement to achieve the goal of becoming a $30 trillion economy by 2047 [7]

Group 1 - Corporates are increasingly turning to banks for credit due to the hardening of bond yields in the debt market, with debt paper issuance volumes decreasing in the current quarter compared to the first quarter, where issuances were Rs 3 lakh crore [1][6] - Ten-year bond yields have risen by 6.6%, while 30-year state government bonds have increased to 7.5%, prompting corporates to seek bank credit if this trend continues [2][6] - Domestic banks are reported to have adequate capital to finance growth and are particularly interested in lending to emerging sectors such as renewable energy and start-ups [5][6] Group 2 - The credit to GDP ratio in India is between 65% to 70%, significantly lower than the nearly 100% ratio in developed countries, indicating potential for growth in credit demand [6] - The digital public infrastructure, such as the Unified Payments Interface (UPI), is gaining traction, reflecting a shift in customer behavior towards increased digitalization [6] - Public sector banks (PSBs) have undergone technology modernization and digitalization over the past eight years, resulting in a significant increase in return on assets, while also facing challenges in compliance and technology costs [6]

From New York City. For our viewers worldwide, I'm Scarlet Fu and Bloomberg Real Yield starts right now. Coming up.U.S. payrolls tumble in August with just 22,000 jobs added to the economy, sending bond yields plunging across the curve. Traders are now locking in a September Fed rate cut. We begin with the big issue.A labor market introduces another weak summer employment report. This is a continued deceleration, but there's an ongoing sort of labor market slowdown. We want a labor market that's cool and th ...

Bitcoin May Gain as Dollar Drops and Bond Yields Climb, Experts Say► https://t.co/6Z82Ac41bb https://t.co/6Z82Ac41bb ...

While the focus is on a potential government shutdown, my next guest says historically geopolitical risk has actually been conducive to growth, productivity, and asset returns overall. So, it's not a risk, it may actually be an opportunity. Joining me now is Marco Pepic.He's the macro and geopolitical strategist over at BCA Research. Uh, this is a perfect conversation to have right now, Marco, because we've just now heard the update from Megan with regard to trade and tariffs, the update from Emily with reg ...

Market Trends & Borrowing Costs - Borrowing costs are up, reaching levels unseen in decades, especially for long-term bonds, impacting investors and governments globally [1] - Investors are demanding higher compensation for holding long-term bonds due to persistent inflation and significant budget deficits [2] - Yields on 30-year treasuries are nearing 5%, a level last seen in July, while UK 30-year rates have reached levels last seen in 1998 [3] Government Debt & Fiscal Policy - Governments worldwide accumulated substantial cheap debt following the 2008 global financial crisis and further increased borrowing to address COVID-19 lockdowns and related recessions [4] - Increased inflation and interest rates since the pandemic have made such large-scale borrowing unsustainable [5] - Concerns exist that persistently high bond yields and governments' failure to manage their finances could lead to escalating debt servicing costs [5] Structural Forces - Structural factors, including demographics and geopolitical tensions, are contributing to the rise in borrowing costs [2] - The longer the maturity of a bond, the greater the potential for adverse events, leading investors to demand higher compensation [4]