While the focus is on a potential government shutdown, my next guest says historically geopolitical risk has actually been conducive to growth, productivity, and asset returns overall. So, it's not a risk, it may actually be an opportunity. Joining me now is Marco Pepic.He's the macro and geopolitical strategist over at BCA Research. Uh, this is a perfect conversation to have right now, Marco, because we've just now heard the update from Megan with regard to trade and tariffs, the update from Emily with reg ...

Borrowing costs are up, hitting levels not seen in decades and particularly on long-term bonds. This is creating a headache for investors and for governments around the globe. From mortgages to car loans, the cost of our borrowing is often based on longdated bonds.It's also what governments pay for their long-term borrowing. Now we're seeing investors demand extra compensation for holding those bonds with sticky inflation and wide budget deficits front of mind. Structural forces like demographics and geopol ...

Market Seasonality & Trends - Strategus notes that while September is historically a weak month, a strong prevailing market trend can mitigate this [2][3] - The market's leadership, with banks and discretionary sectors performing well, suggests limited downside risk [4] - Global markets are generally performing well, further reducing bearish sentiment [4][5] Economic Indicators & Tariffs - The market indicates that the impact of tariffs is not significant, supported by strong consumer discretionary stocks [7] - Credit conditions have not deteriorated, and discretionary stocks are outperforming staples, suggesting no imminent economic weakening [8] - Countries in the "crosshairs" of trade tensions, such as China, the EU, and Japan, have not shown significant weakness [9] Bond Yields & Bank Stocks - Despite breakouts in bond yields across multiple countries (German, French, UK, Japanese, and US 30-year bonds), bank stocks are not responding negatively [9][10] - Japan's NIK index continues to perform well despite movements in Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields, indicating underlying strength [10] Potential Market Correction - A period of "chop" or consolidation is considered reasonable, especially given pullbacks in stocks like Nvidia and Broadcom [4][5] - A worst-case consolidation scenario is estimated around 6150-6200 [5]

UK 30-Year Bond Yields Hit 1998 High - What Now?As UK long-dated gilts hit a level not seen in 27 years, we have a special episode of Bloomberg Daybreak Europe. https://t.co/DqZiGVY8fB ...

Mark, good morning to you. So this is a big event, of course, for the tech world. It's also a huge macro event.I'm talking about the immediate numbers still many hours away, but no doubt investors thinking about how they position for such a big a big event. How are you thinking about the NVIDIA numbers to come. I think it's really important to look at the context of invidious earnings 12 months ago.So we came in to these exact same two Q earnings in August at the end of last year. The market had done well i ...

Market Trends & Potential Risks - Carmignac predicts French bond yields could surge to 100 basis points above Germany's if political instability escalates [1]

US stocks shuffled between small gains and losses on Tuesday, pressured by a rise in bond yields as President Donald Trump’s decision to fire a Federal Reserve governor revived concerns about the central bank’s independence https://t.co/rYZ2rdHLhg ...

Government Debt Financing - Japan's Ministry of Finance initially requested ¥32400 billion (¥32.4 trillion) for debt financing needs in the next fiscal year [1] - The request reflects the impact of rising Japanese bond yields [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a strategy to achieve a monthly dividend yield of 12.2% through the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond BuyWrite Strategy ETF (TLTW), which combines investments in long-term U.S. Treasuries with covered call options to enhance returns [12]. Treasury Market Overview - The U.S. Treasury market is under scrutiny as the national debt reaches $36 trillion, leading to higher yield demands from bond investors due to perceived credit risks [3][4]. - The current yield on the 10-year Treasury is 4.3%, which is lower than expected in a free market, attributed to government policies that have influenced bond supply and demand dynamics [5][6]. Policy Impact on Bond Yields - Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's strategy of issuing short-term debt has suppressed long-term yields, with 75% of the deficit funded at the short end of the curve by 2024 [7][8]. - Current Secretary Scott Bessent continues this approach, funding 80% of the deficit with short-term debt, which aims to cap long-term yields and stabilize the bond market [9]. Investment Strategy and Yield Enhancement - The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) currently yields 4.6%, but the TLTW ETF enhances this yield to 12.2% by selling covered calls on TLT shares [10][12]. - Investing $100,000 in TLT yields $4,600 annually, while the same investment in TLTW increases the income to $12,200, demonstrating the effectiveness of the covered call strategy [12][13].

Geopolitical & Market Optimism - Markets showed slightly higher optimism due to potential peace deal progress, particularly benefiting European equities [3][4] - Global markets outside Europe stagnated, indicating optimism is not universally shared [5] UK Inflation & Bond Market - UK inflation remains significantly above target, raising concerns about undermined UK data [6] - Long-end gilt yields are rising, mirroring a global trend in rising yields, including Chinese yields [7] - Bond vigilante isms are creeping back into the market, potentially accelerating after Jackson Hole [8] Bond Yields & Jackson Hole - Higher bond yields are seen as a potential problem for global stocks in the coming weeks [9] - Expectations are that Jerome Powell will aim to say very little at Jackson Hole, avoiding validation of a September rate cut unless data is very poor [9][10] - A slightly hawkish stance from Powell is anticipated, potentially disappointing the market [10]