Market Analysis - Bitcoin 可能再次暴跌 -80% [1] - “Everything Bubble” 正在破裂 [1] - 商业周期处于崩溃边缘 [1] Risk Assessment - Bitcoin Treasury 公司面临风险 [1]

Market Analysis & Potential Risks - Bitcoin could potentially crash -80% again [1] - Discussion of the 'Everything Bubble' popping [1] - Analysis of the business cycle on the BRINK [1] Bitcoin Specific Risks - Examination of Bitcoin Treasury Co Risks [1]

Market Trend & Potential Risk - Bitcoin could experience an 80% bear market [1] - The business cycle is on the brink of tipping over, potentially leading to the popping of the "everything bubble" [1]

Daily update on $ETH.Still the same squeeze and the same momentum being build up.It's all coming down to the business cycle and the decisions made by the FOMC.If that's progressive for risk-on assets, I think $ETH is ready for a new leg upwards and $5,000+. https://t.co/PeC2mcPhVT ...

Core Insights - The interrelation of market sectors and predictable cycles is emphasized, referencing John J. Murphy's analysis from 1991, particularly in relation to the 1987 stock market crash [1] - The Federal Reserve's role as an independent body in stabilizing the economy during crises is highlighted, contrasting it with potential political influences [2][4] - The significant drop of the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Black Monday (October 19, 1987) is noted as the largest one-day percentage selloff in its history [3] - The ongoing trend towards autocracy in the U.S. is discussed, particularly regarding the current president's influence over interest rate decisions and the implications for the Federal Reserve's independence [4] - The long-term upward trend of stock markets is reiterated, with a reminder of the volatility that can occur, including events termed "Flash Crashes" [5]

Group 1 - The hardest challenges businesses face are often structural rather than short-term cyclical issues [1] - While the business cycle affects most companies, they can typically manage normal fluctuations in performance [1]

I know people have been DMing me about Ro Pal and talking about the business cycle and how he's explained that now we are in a fiveyear cycle instead of a four-year cycle. So just Jerry just to get your opinion. ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Asia Pacific Economics - **Key Focus**: Discussions with US investors regarding the economic outlook for Asia, particularly China, India, and Japan Core Insights 1. **Business Cycle Outlook for Asia**: - Investors are generally optimistic about growth, particularly equity investors compared to fixed income investors who anticipate a modest slowdown. - There is a strong IT capital expenditure in the US, which is expected to support Asia's exports [6][5][5] 2. **China's Macro vs. Market Divergence**: - Investors recognize the weakness in China's macroeconomic landscape but expect markets to diverge from macro trends. - The anti-involution policy is seen as insufficient to address deflationary pressures [22][22][5] 3. **India's Domestic Demand Recovery**: - Investor sentiment is bearish on India due to recent deceleration in corporate revenue and profit growth. - However, a recovery is anticipated from Q4 2025 driven by fiscal and monetary easing measures [26][27][28] 4. **Japan's Policy Rate Path**: - Most investors expect the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to hike rates sooner rather than later, contrary to the base case which does not foresee rate hikes even in 2026. - The current inflation dynamics are largely influenced by supply factors rather than demand [29][30][32] Additional Important Insights 1. **Impact of Tariffs**: - The weighted average tariff on imports from Asia has risen to 25%, significantly impacting growth expectations. - The US-Korea trade deal remains unresolved, with auto tariffs still at 27.5% [7][5][5] 2. **Korea's Trade Cycle**: - Recent data indicates a slowdown in Korea's exports, with daily exports contracting by 10.6% after adjusting for working days, highlighting broad-based weakness [8][8][8] 3. **Rate Cuts in Asia**: - More rate cuts are expected across Asian economies, particularly in India, Korea, Indonesia, and Taiwan, as growth and inflation pressures persist [16][19][19] 4. **China's Deflationary Pressures**: - For a sustainable exit from deflation, significant shifts in the growth model are necessary, including reducing excess capacity and boosting domestic consumption [23][24][24] 5. **Investor Focus on Micro Themes**: - Investors are increasingly interested in micro themes such as emerging frontiers and sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies, rather than macroeconomic recovery [25][25][25] 6. **US-India Trade Relations**: - Ongoing trade tensions pose risks to India's growth outlook, particularly concerning services exports which constitute a significant portion of GDP [28][28][28] 7. **Japan's Corporate Profit Outlook**: - The slowdown in global trade is expected to adversely affect corporate profits, especially in the manufacturing sector [34][34][34] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape in Asia and the sentiments of investors regarding future growth and risks.

Market Sentiment and Analysis - The crypto market is currently experiencing uncertainty, with concerns about a potential alt season, market topping, or the start of a bear market [1][2][3] - The market is showing signs of capitulation, with fear levels approaching extreme levels, which historically can indicate a market bottom [6][7][8] - Many altcoins are in oversold territory, aligning with the high fear levels in the market [9][10] - XRP is showing relative strength compared to Ethereum, but could still see further price declines [3][4][10] - The market has been selling off for approximately 72 days, leading to time and price action capitulation [11][12] Cycle Analysis and Future Outlook - The analysis suggests the four-year crypto cycle may be extending to a five-year cycle, with a potential peak in early 2026 [13][19][20] - This aligns with the liquidity cycle, which is expected to peak around the first quarter of 2026 [16][17][29] - The market has changed significantly with institutional adoption, regulations, and the potential for altcoin ETFs [30][31][39] - Despite these changes, a bear market is still anticipated, likely marking the last typical cycle before utility becomes the primary driver [36] - The Federal Reserve's expected rate cuts and increasing adoption are expected to drive further market expansion [35][38]

Market Cycle Analysis - The global macro investor Raul Pal suggests Bitcoin's 4-year cycle has shifted to a 5-year cycle, potentially peaking in 2026 [1] - The extension of debt maturity from four to five years in 2021-22 has pushed out the business cycle by a year [2] - The ISM (Institute for Supply Management) is expected to peak by Q2 2026, indicating that any dips in Bitcoin price should be considered buying opportunities [2] Investment Strategy - Historically, buying Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies when the ISM was below 50 in 2015-16 and 2019-20 proved to be profitable [3]