So, there we have it. Trump's big, beautiful bill, spending bonanza, got the votes it needed from Republicans in the House, and now it is making its way to the president's desk. So, what should you be prepared for.Well, the benefits of this bill will be like a sugar high. But I want you to know that usually when we rack up huge deficits, it's because we're in a crisis. Think COVID, World War II, the financial crisis.The government steps in, spends a lot in hopes of saving the economy. But this time, that's ...

Legislation & Voting - The chamber voted 219 to 213 to adopt a rule governing debate on the legislation [1] - A group of hardline conservatives and moderate Republicans had combined forces to stall the bill [1] - Speaker Johnson held the vote open for 5 hours to garner support [1] - Republicans received a phone call from President Trump, influencing their vote [3] Bill Implications & Priorities - The bill prioritizes permanent tax breaks for the wealthy [5][7] - Limited help on tips and overtime is only for three years [6] - Deficits are not a priority for the Republican party when in power [6] - Tax breaks for the "little guy" are minimal and only last three years [7] Political Impact & Concerns - Veteran politicians are seemingly ignoring polls and listening to the White House [4] - Conservatives are voting for a bill that contradicts their principles due to fear of Donald Trump and the MAGA movement [9] - Primaries are a major concern for these politicians [9] - Massive cuts to Medicaid will disproportionately impact red/rural America after the next presidential election [10] - The bill is largely supported by the 25-30% of the country that strongly approves of Donald Trump [10] Budgetary Shifts - Republicans are seemingly willing to make ICE's budget larger than the FBI's budget [11][12]

Let's bring in the aforementioned pioneer of the bond vigilante term, Ed Yardeni, the president of Yardeni Research. Ed, this is an environment where it's surfacing again, that term bond vigilantes, but they don't seem to be nearly as effective of vigilanteism as the original bond vigilantes that helped you coin the phrase. Correct. Correct.Well, you know this they were most active in the 1980s and then in the 1990s inflation came down and the administration back then the Clinton administration recognized t ...

Fiscal Unsustainability & Debt - US national debt is a staggering $37 trillion, and a proposed bill could add at least $3 trillion more over the next decade [3] - The bill under discussion is projected to increase deficits by approximately $4 trillion [8][19][20] - The US is on a fiscally unsustainable trajectory, with Social Security and Medicare facing potential shortfalls in less than a decade [7] - Increased debt could lead to higher interest rates for consumers and the government, impacting borrowing costs for cars, homes, and credit cards [4] Impact of Proposed Legislation - The bottom 40% of the population is expected to be worse off as a result of the bill, potentially losing health insurance and access to food stamps [9][21] - Over 10 million people are likely to lose their healthcare due to the proposed legislation [5] - The bottom 10% could be $700 worse off annually, while the top 1% may receive a $30,000 tax cut, described as a reverse Robin Hood effect [21] Trade War & Inflation - Trade wars and tariffs are expected to worsen inflation [5] - The Federal Reserve (Fed) indicated it would have cut interest rates if not for the uncertainty caused by tariffs and the trade war [5][23] Global Confidence & US Economy - There's a growing concern about declining global confidence in the US's ability to repay its debts [11] - The Fed paused on lowering interest rates due to the uncertainty caused by the Trump administration's sweeping trade policy [25]

Bill Overview & Impact - Senate Republicans passed a bill facing dismal polling and internal opposition [1] - The bill cuts Medicaid by $1 trillion and risks 118 million people losing health insurance [2] - The bill extends tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans and increases funding for deportations [2] - The bill could lead to a seismic shift in the nation's fiscal trajectory and raise the risk of a debt crisis [3] Political Dynamics & Opposition - Only 29% support the bill in one poll, with even Fox News showing approval at 38% [4][5] - Elon Musk threatened to fund primary challenges against Republicans who vote for the bill [5] - House conservatives are publicly stating they don't like what the Senate did because it doesn't cut enough [23] Senate Approval Process - Lisa Murkowski secured provisions to shield Alaska from the bill's consequences in exchange for her vote [9] - Murkowski acknowledged the bill's devastating consequences for 49 other states [10] House Outlook - House Republican leaders aim to vote on the Senate version of the bill quickly [20] - Some House conservatives may initially oppose the bill but are expected to eventually support it [24][25] - The President wants the House to take up the Senate version of the bill [26] Underlying Motives - The bill is primarily aimed at making the 2017 tax cuts for the wealthy permanent [29]

How concerned are clients about these deficits and the big beautiful bill. Like what's the vibe out there in terms of what you're hearing. I think investors are a bit confused um because I think they went into the start of this year with the new administration and whether it was all the conversations around Doge and cutting government spending, the secretary's comments around uh moving to, you know, 3% deficit to GDP ratio, and then they look at the reconciliation bill, and there's a bit of um h how does th ...

Given the size of rich countries’ deficits, textbooks would advise, at the very least, cutting back on spending. Today’s governments prefer to double down https://t.co/cr5em9MsAT ...

The Senate version of President Donald Trump’s tax and spending measure would add nearly $3.3 trillion to US deficits over a decade, according to a new estimate from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office https://t.co/8TcukNrYEc ...

Macron has pledged to increase defense spending, but the increased military outlays come with hard choices for a France struggling with deficits and debt. https://t.co/vEUjwC2W7M ...

Fiscal Policy & Deficit Concerns - The industry emphasizes the importance of avoiding tax increases for Americans [3] - The industry expresses concern that the Senate bill could add up to $1 trillion of additional deficits [5] - The industry believes deficits should go down to combat inflation and lower interest rates [8] - The industry highlights the need for more cost savings to combat inflation and lower interest rates [12] - The industry notes that the House bill assumed 26% economic growth and aimed to be roughly break-even, with a potential $72 billion increase in deficits over a decade [4] Welfare & Work Requirements - The industry advocates for work requirements for those receiving benefits like Medicaid and food stamps [15] - The industry aims to return to the common sense welfare reform of the 1990s [16] - The industry points out that Medicaid benefits are projected to increase by 30% over the next 10 years under the proposed bill [19] - The industry wants to ensure that food stamp dollars are redirected to those who most need them with appropriate eligibility checks [20] Energy Policy - The industry opposes subsidizing inefficient energy that enriches the Chinese [6] - The industry wants to terminate the Green New Deal subsidies [5][8] State and Local Tax Caps - The industry opposes rewarding blue state high tax jurisdictions with a big pop to the state and local tax caps, which could cost another $350 billion [17]