Goldman Sachs analyst Kate McShane today downgraded the shares of Target Corp TGT from Buy to Neutral and lowered the price forecast from $142.00 to $101.00.The analyst is concerned about slowing growth in discretionary categories amid a volatile macro environment. Risks from potential sales declines, tariff impacts, and weaker consumer data from HundredX and Placer also weighed on the outlook.Since joining the Americas Buy List in July 2019, TGT shares have risen 6.5%, trailing the S&P 500's 80% gain, said ...

Core Insights - The retail sector in the United States is highly competitive, with Amazon gaining significant ground due to increased discretionary spending [1] - Discretionary spending includes nonessential items that consumers purchase when they have disposable income, and Amazon has become a preferred destination for these purchases [2] Amazon's Market Position - In Q4 2024, Amazon captured 30% of total sales in the electronics and appliances sector, showcasing its dominance in this market [4] - Amazon's growth in food and beverage sales is notable, with its market share rising to 2.7% in 2024 from 2.3% the previous year, indicating a strategic expansion into the grocery market [6] Competitive Strategies - Amazon's aggressive pricing strategies and personalized shopping experiences are key factors driving its expanding market share [7] - The company's use of customer data for tailored recommendations and targeted promotions encourages more frequent purchases [7] Walmart's Performance - Walmart's share of the U.S. retail market has remained stagnant at just under 7.6% since Q3 2020, with no notable growth during the holiday season [8] - Despite Walmart's stronghold in groceries, it struggles to attract shoppers for discretionary products, leaving it at a disadvantage in the growing eCommerce landscape [9] Industry Trends - The disparity in growth trajectories between Amazon and Walmart suggests that Amazon is winning the battle for consumer dollars in nonessential categories [10] - As consumers increasingly favor online platforms for a diverse shopping experience, Walmart faces challenges in adapting to this changing retail environment [10]