Market Overview - The NASDAQ 100 has seen a fifth consecutive day of gains, rising approximately 1% [1] - Despite the rally, a majority of stocks are in the red, indicating a narrowing of the rally's breadth [2] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index has decreased by about 0.7%, reflecting a trend of lower dollar value amidst rising equity prices [1][2] Bond Market Insights - The 30-year bond yield in the U.S. is approaching its highest levels in a decade, which is attracting long-term investors [4] - Bond funds are starting to show a steeper curve, indicating renewed interest from portfolio managers [5] - Current market conditions suggest a Goldilocks economic scenario, with expectations for continued growth but uncertainty about future pricing [6] Currency and Inflation Trends - The U.S. dollar's softness is perceived as a potential manipulation by the government, which may welcome a weaker dollar [7][8] - The Federal Reserve's actions, including replacing Treasury bills with reserves, contribute to a narrative of a weaker dollar and inflationary pressures [9] Investment Opportunities - U.S. investors are finding attractive yields in international markets, particularly in countries like New Zealand and Australia, where bond yields are higher than U.S. credit [11] - The luxury goods market is experiencing mixed results, with watches and jewelry showing growth while fashion and spirits face challenges [41][43] Company-Specific Developments - Starbucks is expected to report earnings soon, with a focus on U.S. transaction growth and long-term guidance [30][31] - LVMH's luxury fashion division is struggling, with a noted decline in organic sales growth, particularly in fashion and spirits [41][48] - The company is diversifying its portfolio, with growth in watches and jewelry, indicating a shift in consumer spending behavior [43][44]

Core Insights - The Invesco RAFI Developed Markets ex-U.S. ETF (PXF) has achieved a 22.4% return over the past year, outperforming both the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) [2][3][6] - PXF's fundamental weighting methodology has favored value sectors such as financials and energy, aligning with the market's shift away from expensive U.S. growth stocks [3][6] - A significant factor in the performance of international equities has been the weakness of the U.S. dollar, which enhances the value of foreign earnings when converted back to dollars [4][6] Performance Comparison - PXF's return of 22.4% surpasses EFA's 18.7% and SPY's 19.2% over the same period, indicating a notable shift in market leadership [3][6] - The maximum drawdown for PXF was only 8.3%, reflecting a stable performance amidst market fluctuations [2] Currency Dynamics - The decline of the U.S. dollar against major currencies has provided a favorable environment for international stocks, benefiting U.S. investors through currency translation [4][6] - Monitoring the DXY Dollar Index is crucial for confirming ongoing trends in international market performance [5]

Group 1: Currency and Interest Rates - The potential loss of control over the yen and Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields could impact global interest rates, particularly in Europe and the US, as rising JGB yields may act as a magnet for higher long-term interest rates globally [2][3][4] - The European Central Bank (ECB) has reduced short-term rates by 200 basis points, while German and French bond yields are at multi-year highs, indicating a global trend towards rising yields if JGB yields continue to increase [4] - The Japanese yen is currently one of the cheapest currencies against the US dollar, which may either maintain its cheapness or potentially reverse, influencing other Asian currencies [4][5] Group 2: Dollar Weakness and Its Implications - Continued weakness in the US dollar could lead to broader impacts across various currencies, affecting foreign investments in US assets and potentially leading to reduced dollar holdings by foreign investors [6][12] - A weaker dollar historically benefits US equities, but it may also create headwinds if it negatively impacts consumer purchasing power, which is crucial for consumer spending in the US economy [10][12] - Foreign ownership of US Treasuries remains significant at about 30%, down from 50% a decade ago, indicating that further dollar weakness could disrupt investment flows and complicate inflation management for the Federal Reserve [11][12] Group 3: Commodity Market Outlook - A weaker dollar typically signals rising commodity prices, suggesting a potential bull market in commodities, including oil and natural gas, which are currently perceived as underpriced [14][15] - The overall commodity market is expected to experience upward pressure, with oil prices potentially rising from current levels, complicating the inflation narrative for the Federal Reserve [17]

More on the markets. Let's bring in CNBC contributor Peter Bookvar, chief investment officer at one point BFG Wealth Partners. Peter, great to have you with us.Um, what does it look like. How bad is it in your view if they quote unquote lose control of where the yen is going and where JGB yields are going in terms of not just the carry trade. Um, but also as Guy had alluded to, the money that Japanese investors have invested directly in other assets around the world and that's a lot of it is uh US treasurie ...

Here to discuss it all is Tom Lee. He's Fund Strat's head of research at a CNBC contributor. I kind of want to start Tom with what's been going on in the metals because a lot of people are pointing to this and saying the dollar's collapsing and metals are soaring and should they feel good about owning stocks in this environment or you hold your nose into I mean like can you kind of just unpack for us what you think is going on here.Um yeah, I mean I think metals uh is proving to be a a real genuine asset cl ...

>> AFTER 20 YEARS OF FINANCIAL PRESSURE, WERE BACK TO LIVE MARKETS. >> THE MARKET IS PROBABLY GOING TO TAKE OFF AGAIN. >> WE SEE A LOT OF UPSIDE IN U.S. VOLATILITY MARKETS. >> THE U.S. BOND MARKET IS STILL THE PLACE TO REACT. >> THIS IS "BLOOMBERG BR WITH SURVEILLANCE, WITH JONATHAN FERRO, ANNMARIE HORDERN. SON PATRICK: GOOD MORNING. -- JONATHAN: GOOD MORNING."BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE" BEGINS RIGHT NOW. INTERVENTION RISKS AND GOAL. SMASHING THROUGH $5,000, BUILDING ON A RECORD-BREAKING RALLY, GOAL ON A SIX-DA ...

>> THIS IS HORIZONS MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA. THE YEN STRENGTH UNDER JAPANESE STOCKS FALL AS TRADERS REMAIN ON ALERT FOR MARKET INTERVENTION. GOLD HITS $5,000 PER OUNCE FOR THE FIRST TIME AND SILVER RALLIES AS A GLOBAL UPHEAVAL FEELS HAVEN DEMAND.DEMOCRATS THREATENED TO BLOCK THE U.S. SPENDING PACKAGE AND LESS FUNDING FROM -- FOR HOMELAND SECURITY IS STRIPPED AFTER ANOTHER KILLING IN MINNESOTA RAISING THE RISK OF A PARTIAL GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN. I'M A JOUMANNA BERCETCHE IN DUBAI KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON DOMESTIC DE ...

FTSE 100 Live: Pound Rallies to Highest Since September Against Weak Dollar https://t.co/O883D8pvKA ...

Not in the Shanghai, Shenzhen. And here in Hong Kong, you're watching the China show. We are live for you at the Asia Financial Forum.I'm Yvonne Man. What. David English.Good morning. We are counting down to the open of markets in greater china. Let's get to your top stories today.We're looking at currency markets. The yen extending its gains, but traders on intervention alert after the prime minister's warning and signs of possible U.S. backing. Gold, as you can see, topping $5,000 for the very first time. ...

Copper extended gains — after jumping almost 3% on Friday — as continued weakness in the dollar buoyed base metals https://t.co/o3Glg8QtWU ...