Market Trends & Economic Outlook - IEA 报告显示全球石油需求下降，美国和中国是主要降幅来源 [1] - 石油需求下降可能预示着美国乃至全球经济放缓 [2][3] - 分析师普遍预计油价将保持平稳 [2] - 尽管美国经济可能放缓，但目前程度温和，与年初的担忧相反 [3] Tariffs & Trade - 总统可能对欧盟和加拿大征收关税，市场对此的反应可能反映出关税最终水平将低于目前水平的预期 [4][5][6] - 关税可能导致市场动荡，但市场主要关注的是仍然具有建设性的宏观背景 [6] - 巴西 ETF 因关税而大幅下跌约 5%，可能存在过度反应 [7] - 墨西哥和加拿大等国可能受到关税影响较大，而中国受到的影响相对较小 [9] - 从长远来看，企业将适应并找到应对新环境的方法 [10][11] Investment Strategies - 在当前具有建设性的宏观背景下，公司更倾向于投资企业债券，因为可以获得更高的收益 [12] - 许多公司的资产负债表表现强劲，公司开始关注高收益和新兴市场债务 [13] - 在没有经济衰退的情况下，违约率将保持在较低水平 [13] - 建议投资者在当前环境下采取更积极的风险承担策略，而不是仅仅关注国债 [14]

Malaysia’s industrial production grew at a slower-than-expected pace for the second straight month, adding to signs of an economic slowdown https://t.co/hqcENuuHjr ...

Economic Outlook - Wells Fargo indicates signs of an economic slowdown, with job creation slowing and inflation expected to rise [1][2] - Nonfarm payrolls added an average of 130,000 jobs per month in the first half of the year, down from 164,000 in the same period of 2024 [2] - Job creation is affected by stagnation in small businesses' hiring plans, while inflation is anticipated to increase due to new tariffs [3] Federal Reserve Actions - The trends of slowing job creation and rising inflation are expected to lead the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to lower interest rates by 25 basis points at three upcoming meetings in September, October, and December [3] Employment Data - Employers are cautious about adding new employees, despite retaining current workers; the number of Americans filing for unemployment has dropped to a seven-week low, while insured unemployment has risen to its highest level since November 2021 [4] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that employment growth in June was consistent with the previous year's rate, with gains in state government and healthcare sectors [5] Tariff Impact - The impact of tariffs is reflected in data showing an increase in non-revolving credit, as consumers are purchasing larger items like cars to avoid new tariffs [6]

Advertising giant WPP lowered its guidance and warned of a pullback in client spending, citing a "challenging economic backdrop." https://t.co/3lMBh6ZCJs ...

Market Outlook - The market reacts significantly to Trump's tweets, but the actual economy is slowing sharply in the second half [1] - Strategists are mostly following what the market is doing, not thinking outside the box with big bold numbers [8] - May to October is a seasonally fraught period, with weakness occurring 60-65% of the time in the last century [9] - There are signs consumers could slow down, as seen in disappointing early Amazon Prime data [10] Inflation and Economic Conditions - Inflation is expected to breach 3% by year-end, based on the core personal consumption expenditure deflator (core PCE) [2] - A soft stagflationary environment with inflation above the 2% target and a slowing economy will affect S&P 500 earnings, including big tech [2] - The market may experience an echo of the stagflationary trades seen in the first four months of the year, though potentially half as bad (around 12% drop instead of over 20%) [3] - Inflation faced easy anniversary comparisons, but six-month annualized data and individual components of core PCE suggest inflation is sticky [5][6] Fed Policy - With a slowing economy and sticky inflation, fewer Fed cuts are expected [10] Potential Market Pullback - The market anticipates some weakness in the second half of the year [9] - A pullback is expected due to a slowing economy, slowing earnings, sticky inflation, and fewer Fed cuts [10]

Payroll Analysis - Initial market reaction to headline payroll numbers may be overstated, requiring deeper analysis [1][4][5] - Private payrolls show a slowdown, below 68,000 and the six-month average, indicating a softening job market [3][4] - Government payrolls present a mixed picture, with federal government down due to cuts, while state and local government is up, potentially due to education workers returning [2] - Payroll revisions were surprisingly positive, contrasting with expectations of a downward revision [8] - Overstated payroll figures raise concerns about underlying weakness in the job market [7] Economic Outlook - The payroll data validates a broader economic slowdown, consistent with a mid-cycle slowdown rather than a recession [11][12] - Market valuations may be disconnected from the economic slowdown, requiring caution [12] - Potential for a stimulative bill from Washington D C, could be conducive to risk assets [9] Corporate Impact - Corporate profit margins and reactions are crucial to watch, with the impact still unfolding [6][8] - Layoff environment remains benign, but its sustainability needs monitoring [8] Monetary Policy - The Fed is expected to cut rates in September and potentially later this year [10]

Speaking of the weak dollar, my next guest has three names that should benefit from that. Or maybe it's the whole market as we were just discussing. Michael Caneritz is here.He's the chief investment strategist at Piper Sandler. It's great to see you. You too.What What is the the sort of top level effect of a dollar being down 10%. I mean, is it supportive for stocks. What happens if it continues. What happens if it doesn't.I I think it's positive. I mean, at least that's what I've we've observed through mo ...

Economic Outlook - Asia's manufacturing activity slowdown deepened in June, signaling a warning for the region's growth prospects [1]

China's Economic Slowdown - China Beige Book data indicates a broad slowdown in China's economy, with declines in manufacturing, consumption, and bank borrowing [3] - May data initially appeared positive due to tariff reductions and consumer trade-in programs, but subsequent data revealed a fall-off [2][3] Beijing's Policy Stance - Beijing seems less concerned about the economic situation and is intervening less aggressively than before [4] - This reduced concern is attributed to Beijing's confidence in its leverage in trade discussions with the United States [4] - China is easing rates and engaging in fiscal stimulus, but not to the extent that would be expected in an extreme downside scenario [5][6] Trade War Dynamics - China is perceived to be able to withstand more economic pain compared to Western democracies [8] - China is using export controls, particularly on rare earth magnets, to demonstrate leverage against the United States [8] - China feels it has presented a strong front in the trade war, reducing the immediate need for aggressive economic measures [9] Consumption and Manufacturing - Claims of China transforming into a mega consumer powerhouse are viewed skeptically [10][11] - China's weak domestic demand leads to increased exports and potential dumping of products on global markets [13][14] - Overcapacity in various sectors, including cars and EVs, contributes to the pressure to export [17] Overcapacity and Export Strategy - China's economic model, characterized by weak domestic consumption and strong supply-side support, results in overcapacity being channeled to the global market [17] - This overcapacity can be used strategically to exert leverage on adversaries like the United States, particularly in critical minerals [16]

We spoke just a few moments ago about what we were expecting. 7-2 seems to have been the consensus a little bit may be more dovish in terms of the vote split. That looks like it, Guy.Absolutely. As you say, the hold was widely expected, but all the focus as your last guest was also saying, is on whether the break down was going to be seven members of the monetary policy committee voting to to hold and to for a quarter point cut. But in fact, we've got three for a quarter point cut.And it looks like the addi ...