Labor Market Dynamics - The overall national aggregate hiring rate is at a very low level [1] - The layoff rate is also at a very low level [1] - It's become tough for people just entering the labor force to be hired [1] Economic Uncertainty - Companies have slowed down hiring to observe how economic policy changes will unfold [2] - The economy is characterized by low fire and low hire rates [2]

The interest rates in the US are too high right now given the the health of the economy. If you have an economy that's changing rapidly for the better, it will produce more goods. Uh and that that is not getting uh accommodated uh within the Fed's policies.So the US should have a lower yield curve because the economy is so strong. That's not part of the Fed's model. Central banks tend to say no if things are really good then we raise rates.That's the reverse of what the the what should be going on. Final po ...

Tariffs & Legality - A federal appeals court ruled that the Trump administration's tariffs are unlawful and invalid [1][5] - The court's decision, with a 7-4 vote, supports the view that the tariffs are illegal [5] - The tariffs are considered a violation of the law used for justification and the spirit of the constitution [4] - The administration claimed the tariffs were an emergency measure under a 1974 law, but this was rejected by a district court [4] Economic Impact - The tariffs have been unpopular and are costing consumers and corporations billions of dollars [2] - The tariffs are seen as hindering the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates due to driving inflation [2] - The tariffs are considered bad economic policy overall [2] Congressional Authority - The legality of the president imposing tariffs that raise hundreds of billions of dollars without congressional input is questioned [3]

Trade Policy & International Relations - The US president is increasing tariff pressure on India, a key trading partner, due to their purchases of Russian oil, accusing them of profiteering and funding Russia's war in Ukraine [1] - India criticized the tariff escalation as unjustified, highlighting previous US support for their plan to keep oil flowing globally at a price that would reduce Russia's revenue [2] - The president is demanding investment pledges from various countries and threatening trade partners with high tariffs if they don't provide the money [7] - The imposition of tariffs is viewed as a tax primarily borne by US importers [8][11] Economic Impact & Market Concerns - The president's actions towards India and Brazil suggest a pattern of constant uncertainty and threats regarding trade [12] - Concerns exist that reliance on tariff revenue could create a cycle of dependence [11] - Tariffs are expected to increase prices for consumers on everyday goods like shoes, coffee, and bananas [14] - The uncertainty caused by these trade policies is considered harmful to the economy [13] Alternative Strategies & Policy Debate - A previous strategy involved allowing countries like India to buy Russian oil at a capped price to maintain global oil supply while reducing Russia's revenue [6] - Questions are raised about whether the current administration has a better plan to hurt Russia without raising gas prices globally [7] - The current approach is seen by some as deviating from the principles of open markets and independent central banking that have historically supported the American economy [9][10]

Government Data Manipulation Risks - Political leaders meddling in government data rarely ends well, as seen in Greece, China, and Argentina [1][2] - Undermining data integrity erodes a country's international standing and increases borrowing costs [2][4] - Accurate data is crucial for citizens to hold leaders accountable and for informed decision-making [5] Economic and Investment Implications - Data manipulation creates uncertainty for investors and companies making capital expenditure decisions [10][11] - Distrust in government data can undermine confidence in the country's credibility domestically and internationally [4][13] - The US is at a critical juncture, and the integrity of data production needs to be maintained to avoid a loss of confidence [7][8] Historical Parallels and Warnings - Argentina's systematic understatement of inflation led to a loss of international confidence and a debt crisis [2][3] - Greece's prosecution of the head of its statistical agency further eroded its international standing [1][5] - Janet Yellen likens the US situation to that of a banana republic, highlighting the severity of the concern [6]

Geopolitical fragmentation is a poor instrument of economic policy (via @opinion) https://t.co/rNJJ13fOzb ...