Group 1 - The discussion highlights that concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve may be overstated, as indicated by the wide spread in the dot plot, suggesting no cohesive voting block among Fed members [2] - There is an expectation that inflation will not significantly rise due to tariffs, particularly affecting consumer electronics, and that consumer inflation expectations are not being materially impacted [3][4] - The market anticipates further rate cuts from the Fed, with a cautious approach suggested regarding the pace of these cuts, indicating a preference for a 25 basis point reduction [5][6] Group 2 - The current economic indicators show mixed signals, with labor market weakness contrasted by strength in retail sales, leading to uncertainty about the Fed's policy decisions [8] - The expectation is that the 10-year yield will remain around 4.25% through the end of next year, even as the Fed continues to cut rates [9][10]

Appraisal, Borrower Mining, Reverse Mortgage Tools; Conv. Conforming News; Rates Creeping Up In China, red symbolizes prosperity, protection, and welcoming energy, and so is a popular front door color for occupants, especially when facing south. Here in the United States (we’re still united, right?) it doesn’t take long before “occupancy fraud” is on everyone’s lips in residential lending. Occupancy is not a partisan issue, right? And prosecuting it should not be either. Whether it is the Fed’s Lisa Cook, ...

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran told CNBC on Friday that he spoke only briefly to President Trump before this week's interest rate decision and was not pressured on how to vote.Miran, who voted against the quarter percentage point reduction in favor of a move twice that size, said he made his decision independently."He called me Tuesday morning to congratulate me, and that was it," the central banker said during a "Squawk on the Street" interview. "I did not talk to him about how I vote. I did not ta ...

In a new essay, Minneapolis Fed President Neil Qashqari says he sees two more rate cuts coming from the central bank this year. Steve Leeman uh joins uh us now with Mr. . Qashqari.Hey, Steve. And hey, Neil. >> Good morning.>> Thank you, Joe. Let's bring in Mr. . Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed.Neil, let's talk about your um essay this morning, which is fascinating. And I just want to ask you uh first about one of the things that you say in your piece, which is that you're concerned that there cou ...

Fed Independence & Political Influence - The removal of a Fed governor based on accusations poses a significant threat to the Fed's independence [1][3] - Such a removal could set a precedent, allowing political influence to sway interest rate decisions away from the Fed's dual mandate [3][6] - Administrations typically favor lower interest rates, potentially leading to policies misaligned with maximum employment and price stability [6] Market Reaction & Economic Implications - Markets may not immediately react to the issue but could respond negatively if a governor is removed from the FOMC [4][6] - Political influence on interest rates could introduce inflation and risk premiums in the long-term bond market [7] - A Fed perceived as politically influenced could lead to higher premiums on long bond yields, counteracting the goal of lower long-term interest rates [7]

Core Viewpoint - The potential removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook poses a significant threat to the independence of the Federal Reserve, as it sets a precedent for removing officials based on accusations rather than concrete evidence [1][3][6]. Group 1: Threat to Fed Independence - The ability to remove a Fed governor based on accusations could lead to a situation where any official could be dismissed if their policy views do not align with those of the current administration [3][6]. - The legal process surrounding the accusations against Lisa Cook must be allowed to unfold, as it is now in the court system [3][4]. Group 2: Market Response - The market's current lack of response to the situation may indicate that investors are focused on immediate decisions rather than long-term implications for Fed credibility and independence [4][5]. - If Lisa Cook is removed from the FOMC, it is anticipated that the markets will react negatively, as this could lead to interest rates being influenced by political motives rather than the Fed's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability [6][7]. Group 3: Interest Rate Implications - A shift in the Fed's composition could bias interest rates towards being lower, as administrations typically favor lower rates, which may not align with economic appropriateness [6][7]. - The desire for lower long-term interest rates, as expressed by President Trump, could result in higher inflation and risk premiums in the bond market, counteracting the intended goals of lower rates [7].

Um, I wanted to ask about inflation expectations. Um, you've said the Fed can't take the stability of inflation expectations for granted. Um, you mentioned at the short run they've gone up a little bit.I wonder if you can talk a bit a bit about that. Um, and then also at the long run, I'm wondering do you see evidence that the debate over Fed independence and the growing deficit is putting pressure on inflation expectations. So, as you as you said, um, shorter term inflation expectations have tended to resp ...

Um, I wanted to ask about inflation expectations. Um, you've said the Fed can't take the stability of inflation expectations for granted. Um, you mentioned at the short run they've gone up a little bit.I wonder if you can talk a bit a bit about that. Um, and then also at the long run, I'm wondering do you see evidence that the debate over Fed independence and the growing deficit is putting pressure on inflation expectations. So, as you as you said, um, shorter term inflation expectations have tended to resp ...

Hi, Victoria Aguida with Politico. Um, you've talked a lot about Fed independence and the importance of it um, over the years, but as as markets have questions about uh, what exactly President Trump's intentions are with the Fed, what would you point to as the things they should be watching to determine that the Fed is still making decisions based on um, you know, e the economic outlook rather than political considerations. I look it's deeply in our culture to do to do our work based on the incoming data an ...

Hi, Victoria Aguida with Politico. Um, you've talked a lot about Fed independence and the importance of it um, over the years, but as as markets have questions about uh, what exactly President Trump's intentions are with the Fed, what would you point to as the things they should be watching to determine that the Fed is still making decisions based on um, you know, e the economic outlook rather than political considerations. I look it's deeply in our culture to do to do our work based on the incoming data an ...