Core Viewpoint - President Trump's actions are perceived as attempts to limit or eliminate the Federal Reserve's independence, which could lead to weaker economic growth, higher inflation, and increased unemployment [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - 82% of respondents believe Trump's actions are aimed at limiting the Fed's independence [1] - 41% of economists and strategists think the actions are directly aimed at eliminating the Fed's independence, while another 41% believe they are designed to limit it [2] - A majority (68%) expect upward pressure on inflation due to the president's actions [4] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Respondents forecast a decline in the Fed Funds rate from 4.38% to 3.66% this year, reflecting three quarter-point cuts [7] - The probability of a recession has increased to 40%, with 55% anticipating a moderate recession lasting about 10 months [8] - The growth outlook remains unchanged at 1.5% for 2025, with a rebound to 2% in 2026 [8] Group 3: Tariffs and Inflation - 86% of respondents expect price increases due to tariffs, with half believing substantial increases are forthcoming [9] - The average respondent estimates that 31% of the tariff burden is borne by consumers, contradicting the administration's claims [9] - Tariffs are viewed as the primary threat to economic expansion, followed by uncertainty around the administration's policies [10]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street is anticipating a quarter-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve, with some hoping for a half-point cut, following recent inflation data showing a drop in wholesale prices and a significant rise in consumer prices [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Rate Decision - The final inflation data before the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting indicates a surprise drop in annual wholesale prices, while consumer prices have seen their largest annual increase since January [1]. - Investors are largely expecting at least a quarter-point rate cut, with discussions around the potential for a half-point cut [2][3]. - The Federal Reserve is likely to implement a 25 basis points cut at the next meeting, with future intentions indicated in a dot plot for subsequent meetings [3][4]. Economic Context - The current economic landscape includes weak job data and revisions, which support the case for a rate cut [3]. - If the Federal Reserve suggests two more rate cuts, Wall Street anticipates an additional 25 basis points cut in October and another in December, totaling a 75 basis points reduction by year-end [4]. Federal Reserve Leadership - James Bullard, a candidate for the next Federal Reserve chair, confirms discussions with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant regarding his candidacy [5][6]. - There are criticisms regarding the timing of rate cuts, with some arguing that the Federal Reserve was slow to respond to inflation surges in 2021, 2022, and 2023 [7][8][9]. - The Trump administration's attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook has raised questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve, with legal proceedings ongoing [11][12][13]. Federal Reserve Independence - The importance of the Federal Reserve's independence from political influence is emphasized, with a call for clear definitions regarding the roles and protections of committee members [12][14][15]. - Maintaining the Federal Reserve's operational effectiveness and independence is deemed essential for sound monetary policy [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's legal team is seeking to expedite the process of removing Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook before the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which is crucial for interest rate decisions [1][2][4]. Group 1: Legal Proceedings - Trump's lawyers have filed a request with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit to allow his attempt to fire Cook to proceed before the FOMC meeting next week [1][2]. - A lower-court judge had previously blocked Trump's attempt to remove Cook while her lawsuit against him is ongoing [1][4]. - The appeal seeks a ruling by Monday afternoon to influence the FOMC's decisions regarding open market activities [2]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Trump is advocating for a reduction in interest rates to stimulate economic growth and lower the costs associated with national debt [3]. - He has expressed dissatisfaction with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell for not lowering rates in 2025 and has previously considered firing him [3]. Group 3: Allegations and Responses - Trump cited allegations of mortgage fraud against Cook as justification for her removal, although Cook has denied these allegations [4]. - Trump anticipates that he will soon have a majority on the Fed board that will support lowering interest rates [4]. Group 4: Federal Reserve Independence - The judge's ruling emphasized the importance of Federal Reserve independence, suggesting that reinstating Cook serves the public interest [5].

Core Viewpoint - Citadel CEO Ken Griffin warns President Trump against interfering with the Federal Reserve, arguing that such actions could lead to increased inflation and undermine economic stability [1][2][3] Group 1: Griffin's Concerns - Griffin emphasizes that Trump's public criticism of the Fed and pressure for lower interest rates could raise inflation expectations and weaken investor confidence in U.S. institutions [3] - He describes Trump's strategy as a "risky" game, particularly highlighting the recent firing of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and attempts to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook [3] Group 2: White House Response - A White House official contends that Trump's policies have resulted in lower inflation rates compared to the Biden administration, asserting that the Fed should respond by cutting rates to support economic growth [4] - Other Trump administration officials argue that Trump is merely expressing his opinions on monetary policy, similar to actions taken by President Biden [6] Group 3: Business Community Reaction - Griffin's op-ed represents a significant departure from the general silence of the U.S. business community regarding Trump's approach to the Fed, with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce previously defending the central bank [5]

Federal Reserve Independence & Credibility - The market is approaching a credibility crisis due to President Trump's actions regarding the Federal Reserve, including attempts to remove Governor Lisa Cook and influence interest rates [2][3] - The President's demands for a 3% interest rate cut and rhetoric towards Chairman Powell are unprecedented and concerning [3] - The financial industry expresses more concern over local grocery store policies than the potential politicization of the Fed, which poses a major threat to the financial system [6] Market & Economic Implications - Inflation expectations are trending upwards, and the spread between 30-year and 10-year bonds is widening, signaling potential market instability [4] - Markets are pricing in expected rate cuts, so the actual cut in September may not significantly impact long-term rates unless it signals a shift towards prioritizing easy rates [9] - Politicizing the Fed could lead to a pattern similar to the 1970s, where long-term rates rise despite rate cuts [10] Potential Policy Responses - If long-term rates increase, the administration might consider quantitative easing or pressure banks and pension funds to buy long-term bonds, which could compromise the financial system's integrity [11]

U.S. Economy & Labor Market - Applications for U.S unemployment benefits rose to the highest since June, indicating a cooling labor market [4][8] - Private sector payrolls increased by 54,000, falling short of estimates, ahead of the jobs report [4][13] - The service side of the U.S sector experienced expansion in August at the fastest pace in six months [8] Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - Discussions around the independence of the Federal Reserve were dominant, especially concerning potential conflicts of interest [9][20][21] - The market is anticipating potential rate cuts by the FED, influenced by weaker employment data [13][74] - Concerns exist regarding Lisa Cook's position at the FED and the potential for political influence [14] Retail & Consumer Behavior - Salesforce shares are down 18% due to profit missing expectations, despite a double-digit rise in quarterly revenue [5] - American Eagle Outfitters shares are up 32% due to expected sales boost from marketing campaigns [5] - A firm's average transaction size is just under $300, indicating use for considered purchases [50] Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) Industry - A firm reports accelerating demand and user base growth, with metrics stronger than the previous year [46][48] - A firm emphasizes transparency with no compounding interest or late fees, with 98% of consumers never being late [52][54][55] - BNPL accounts for just under 1% of U.S retail, with significant growth potential compared to markets like Australia [70] Media & Entertainment Industry - John Malone, Chairman of Liberty Media, discussed risk avoidance and diversification strategies [32] - The cable industry is seen as having "cooked its own goose" by not adapting to streaming options [36] - Live sports are considered a key element in maintaining cable bundling [37] Health Savings Accounts (HSA) & Healthcare - Health Equity administers flexible spending accounts and boosted its adjusted profit forecast for the full year [80] - HSAs are highlighted as tax-advantaged savings vehicles, with a maximum contribution of $8,500 a year [81][82] - New legislation expands HSA eligibility to a new class of Americans, specifically those in ACA marketplace bronze plans [88] Sports Business - The New York Giants are selling a minority stake, valuing the team at $10 billion [104] - Limited partners in sports teams have limited say in front office and business decisions [106] - The business of sports is booming, as evidenced by team valuations and event attendance [110]

As we monitor this RFK hearing, we also are monitoring another hearing that's happening in Washington today. That is President Trump's nominee for Federal Reserve Governor Steven Myin, his CEA chair testifying before Senate Banking. Our Steve Leeman has been monitoring that one and has some of the highlights.Steve. >> Yeah, Sarah. This one is about as interesting.Fed Governor nominee Steven Myron getting a grilling from ranking member Elizabeth Warren who in questioning tried to establish Myron's independen ...

You know, the independence of the Fed is critical for everything we do. And uh, you know, there are things that are going on that make people worried, but I still believe that we have a independent Fed. People that are appointed will behave that way and act in a political fashion.So, I think no matter what the Fed will maintain its independence. >> Um, you are one of the people who has been named as a potential candidate for uh, Federal Reserve Chair. Have you met with Treasury Secretary Scott Besson.>> I I ...

Fed Independence & Political Influence - The financial industry suggests the Federal Reserve is not independent and its appointees are partisan, similar to other government branches [2][3][4][14][17] - The industry questions whether a sitting president should have the authority to remove a Fed governor if their views are misaligned with the electorate's wishes [4] - The industry proposes revisiting the notion of the Fed's independence, considering that many of its functions could be better handled by the Treasury or other entities [17] - The industry acknowledges the 14-year terms for Fed governors are designed to insulate them from political cycles, promoting institutional resilience [17][18][21] Monetary Policy & Data Reliability - The financial sector expresses concern over the Fed's monetary policy decisions, which are based on potentially inaccurate data [6][7][11] - The industry suggests that capital markets and free markets are more effective at achieving price stability than the Fed [8] - The industry highlights the potential for real-time pricing oracles, utilizing blockchain-published economic data, to improve market efficiency [11][12][13] Fed's Role & Responsibilities - The industry questions whether the Fed should continue to act as a lender of last resort, suggesting the Treasury could perform this function more effectively [8] - The industry generally agrees that the Fed can continue its banking supervision and regulation, as well as its role as a payment system and clearing house [9][10] - The industry emphasizes the importance of considering the long-term costs of capital and the US's ability to service its debt when making monetary policy decisions [19][20]

LISA COOK'S HEARING ENDS WITH NO RULING. A JUDGE IN WASHINGTON GIVES LEGAL TEAMS ON BOTH SIDES MORE TIME TO MAKE THEIR CASE OVER PRESIDENT TRUMP'S EFFORT TO FIRE THE FEDERAL RESERVE GOVERNOR. WE WILL BRING YOU TO THE COURTHOUSE IN WASHINGTON FOR A LIVE REPORT FROM TYLER KENDALL WHERE THINGS JUST WRAPPED UP WITH INSIGHTS FROM MICHAEL AND NATASHA SERIN FROM THE YALE BUDGET LAB.OUR PANEL IS IN PLACE. JEANNE SHEEHAN ZAINO AND RICK DAVIS ARE WITH US. WE START ON WALL STREET.CHARLIE PELLETT HAS THE LATEST ON THE ...