Geopolitical & Market Confidence - Investors appear to be largely shrugging off geopolitical tensions, with a baseline assumption that conflicts will not escalate significantly [1][2] - Despite potential ceasefire breaks, futures are higher, suggesting investor confidence in the situation remaining stable [1] Equity Strategy - The firm is modestly overweight equities, seeing opportunities more broadly across the asset class [3] - A neutral geographic allocation within equities is favored, indicating no strong conviction in a particular region or country [4][5] US Market Focus - With the Federal Reserve potentially easing and geopolitical tensions lessening, the US market remains a key area of focus [6] - Cyclical sectors like financials or industrials are attractive investment areas, potentially leading the market [7] US Small Cap Opportunities - US small caps are being considered, especially if sustained US economic growth holds up despite tariffs [8][9] - Small caps offer diversified access to US growth, excluding the mega-cap tech exposure prevalent in the S&P 500 [13][14] - Russell 2000 futures are up over 1%, outperforming NASDAQ [11]

Market Trends & Geopolitical Impact - Rising geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, are driving increased defense spending worldwide [1] - The US defense spending remains one of the few areas with strong bipartisan support [1] - Global air traffic continues to rise due to the growing middle class and emerging economies, driving future air travel demand [1] US Defense Budget - President Trump has proposed a $1 trillion (万亿) National Defense Budget for fiscal year 2026, which is up 13% from the previous fiscal year [1] - Key priorities in this budget include the Iron Dome missile defense system, ship building, nuclear modernization, and pay for military personnel [1] ETF Performance & Holdings - iShares Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is the most popular in the space with approximately $79 billion in assets and an expense ratio of 072% [1] - The top three holdings in ITA account for 45% of the portfolio, with GE Aerospace accounting for more than 20% and RTX getting more than 15% weight [1] - Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF (PPA) has $55 billion in assets and a slightly higher expense ratio of 057% [1] - Global X offers a fund (SHLD) which holds defense technology companies, including industrial companies, cyber security companies, AI, and drone systems [1] - A European ETF (EUND) has surged 65% this year, while the Global X ETF (SHLD) is up about 55% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Barrick Mining Corporation and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited are leading gold producers with diversified portfolios, positioned to benefit from favorable gold prices and geopolitical tensions, making them relevant for investors in the precious metals sector [1][25]. Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices have increased approximately 29% this year, reaching a peak of $3,500 per ounce in April 2025, driven by aggressive trade policies and central bank accumulation of gold reserves [2]. Barrick Mining Corporation - Barrick is advancing key growth projects, including Goldrush and the Reko Diq project, which are expected to significantly enhance production [4][5]. - The Goldrush mine aims for 400,000 ounces of production annually by 2028, while the Reko Diq project is projected to produce 460,000 tons of copper and 520,000 ounces of gold annually [5]. - Barrick's Lumwana copper mine expansion is a $2 billion project expected to double throughput and produce 240,000 tons of copper annually [6]. - As of Q1 2025, Barrick reported cash and cash equivalents of approximately $4.1 billion and generated operating cash flows of around $1.2 billion, a 59% increase year-over-year [7]. - Barrick's dividend yield is 1.9% with a payout ratio of 28% and a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of about 5.1% [8]. - However, Barrick faces challenges with rising costs, with cash costs per ounce of gold and all-in-sustaining costs increasing by approximately 16% and 20% year-over-year, respectively [10]. Agnico Eagle Mines Limited - Agnico Eagle is focused on growth projects such as the Odyssey project and the Hope Bay project, which is expected to generate significant cash flow [11][12]. - Following its merger with Kirkland Lake Gold, Agnico Eagle has established itself as a high-quality senior gold producer with a strong pipeline of projects [13]. - In Q1 2025, Agnico Eagle's operating cash flow increased by roughly 33% year-over-year to $1,044 million, with free cash flows of $594 million, up around 50% [14][15]. - Agnico Eagle has a lower long-term debt-to-capitalization ratio of about 5% compared to Barrick's 12.3%, indicating lower financial risk [15]. - The company offers a dividend yield of 1.3% with a payout ratio of 32% and a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of 10.3% [15]. - Agnico Eagle's total cash costs per ounce of gold were $903, with projections for 2025 indicating an increase in costs [16]. Stock Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, Barrick's stock has increased by 36.3%, while Agnico Eagle's stock has risen by 56.8%, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's increase of 55.4% [17]. - Barrick is trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 10.73, representing a 23.8% discount to the industry average of 14.08X [20]. - Agnico Eagle trades at a premium with a forward earnings multiple of 20.27, above the industry average [21]. Growth Prospects - The consensus estimates for Barrick's 2025 sales and EPS imply year-over-year growth of 13.7% and 43.7%, respectively [22]. - Agnico Eagle's 2025 sales and EPS estimates suggest year-over-year growth of 23.6% and 43%, respectively [23]. - Both companies are well-positioned to capitalize on the current gold price environment, but Agnico Eagle's higher dividend growth rate and lower leverage may present better investment prospects [25].

June 17, 2025 02:00 PM GMT Internet | North America Where Are We Trading Now: After a Geopolitically Charged Week Internet names fell -1% last week (SPX/NDX flat/-1%) led by AMZN/GOOGL/META -1%/+1%/-2% as geopolitical tensions weighed on the market in the back half of the week. APP -13%, CHWY -14% (post-EPS move), and DUOL -7%. AMZN/GOOGL/ META 30X/17X/25X '26 EPS (-4%/-6%/+12% vs TTM avg). We would greatly appreciate your 5-star vote in the Internet Large Cap and Internet SmidCap categories in this year's ...

THE SMI IS UP BY .2% PLUS OF THE CONVERSATIONS, ANALYSIS START RIGHT NOW. ♪ >> NEWSMAKERS AND MARKET MOVERS, THIS IS "THE PULSE WITH FRANCINE LACQUA." TOM: GOOD MORNING AND WELCOME TO "THE PULSE." I AM TOM MACKENZIE. THESE ARE YOUR TOP STORIES.DONALD TRUMP HAS HELD TALKS WITH HIS NATIONAL SECURITY TEAM FUELING SPECULATION THE U.S. IS ABOUT TO TAKE A MORE ACTIVE ROLE IN ISRAEL'S MILITARY ACTION IN IRAN. BLOOMBERG UNDERSTANDS YESTERDAY'S MEETING IN WASHINGTON LASTED MORE THAN AN HOUR. IT WAS FOLLOWED BY A CAL ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish. Short - term investors are advised to closely monitor the impact of changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation on risk - aversion sentiment and focus on the statements of the Fed's June FOMC meeting regarding inflation, the economy, and interest rate prospects. Short - term corrections are still regarded as medium - to long - term buying opportunities [5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On Tuesday, the precious metals market showed gold fluctuating and silver rising. The surrounding US dollar index rose, the 10Y US Treasury yield fell, and the US stock market declined, indicating an increase in the demand for US dollar safe - haven assets. The final closing prices were: COMEX gold 2508 contract at $3406.5 per ounce, down 0.32%; US silver 2507 contract at $37.18 per ounce, up 2.01%; SHFE gold 2508 main contract at 785.08 yuan per gram, down 1.46%; SHFE silver 2508 contract at 8864 yuan per kilogram, up 0.45% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 97.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 2.7%. In July, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 85.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 14.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 0.3%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 36.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 54.8%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 8.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point rate cut is 0.2% [3]. - In terms of long - term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF's holdings increased by 4.01 tons to 945.94 tons, while the iShares Silver ETF's holdings decreased by 39.58 tons to 14675.36 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 20.2 tons to 1215.1 tons, and SGX silver inventory increased by 59.6 tons to 1378.9 tons in the week ending June 13 [3]. 3.3 Key Events This Week - The US retail sales month - on - month rate announced on Tuesday was - 0.9%, lower than the expected - 0.7%, and the previous value was revised down. The Bank of Japan's interest rate decision on Tuesday maintained the third on - hold stance this year. The focus this week is on the Fed's June FOMC meeting early on Thursday. The Fed will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook summary at 02:00 on Thursday, and Fed Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference at 02:03. The Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision at 19:00 on Thursday [4]. 3.4 Technical Analysis and Trading Suggestions - For London gold, the short - term technical trend has weakened. Support levels are around 3365, with strong support at 3300, and resistance levels at 3400, 3450, and strong resistance in the 3500 area. For London silver, the short - term trend has strengthened. Support levels are in the 36.9 - 37 area, then 36, 35.5, with strong support in the 34.8 - 35 area, and the upside space has opened up to the 40 area, and even 45 is possible [5]. 3.5 Other Market Data - The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of precious metal futures and spot prices, including SHFE gold and silver, SGX gold and silver, CME gold and silver, and the CME gold - silver ratio [6]. - The table presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of stock, bond, and commodity markets, such as the US dollar index, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot price, LmeS copper 03 price, 10Y US Treasury yield, 10Y US real interest rate, and 10 - 2Y US Treasury yield spread [24].

and others. Let's bring in Wells Fargo Investment Institute senior global markets strategist Scott Ren. Scott, good to have you.So, the major averages closed down nearly a percent today. The NASDAQ fairing worst. It's not a reaction to the 10-year, which was lower today. It's a reaction to oil.Well, John, I think that's part of it. And, you know, certainly the market, especially if we have a big jump, uh, you know, $90, $100 a barrel or something like that, that's going to be a negative. But I think a lot o ...

Well, let's talk more trade and rising geopolitical tensions. Joining me now is Ambassador Nicholas Burns, former US Ambassador to China. He's currently co-chair of the Aspen Strategy Group and a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School.Ambassador, thanks for joining me. So, we just heard from Megan Cassal. The president is not seeking deescalation between Israel and Iran.At the same time, the US seems to be getting a lot of its goals addressed through some unusually aggressive means in Iran right now. What' ...

>> GOOD MORNING, THIS IS BLOOMBERG "DAYBREAK EUROPE." I’M TOM MCKENZIE IN EUROPE. HOSTILITIES BETWEEN ISRAEL AND IRAN ENTER A FOURTH DAY, STOKING FEARS OF A WILDER WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST. PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYS THE TWO SIDES PLAY NEED TO "FIGHT IT OUT" BEFORE A DEAL CAN BE REACHED.OIL SUSTAINS GAINS WITH A MARKET BRACING FOR REBUYCKS DUCTIONS. GOLD NEARS A HIGH. AND TENSIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND GLOBAL TRAILED SET TO DOMINATE.GOOD MORNING. SO GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS WITH THE FOCUS ON THE MIDDLE EAST CONTINUE ...

Group 1: Market Reaction - Major international oil and oil-related stocks such as TotalEnergies, APA, and Torm plc experienced significant rallies, with stock increases of 2.6%, 4.4%, and 3.4% respectively [1] - The oil and gas prices had a "relief rally" due to OPEC+ announcements of supply increases being less than feared [3][4] Group 2: OPEC+ Supply Decisions - OPEC+ announced an increase in oil supply for July by 411,000 barrels per day, which was in line with market expectations [4] - The cartel had previously agreed to voluntary cuts of approximately 2.2 million barrels per day in January 2024 to support oil prices, but plans to phase out these cuts gradually [5] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Ukraine's recent strike against Russia's bomber fleet raised concerns about potential escalations in the conflict, which could impact Russian oil supply [6][7] - Russia is the third-largest oil producer, supplying about 12% of global oil, making its supply situation critical in the context of geopolitical tensions [7] Group 4: Strategic Implications for OPEC+ - OPEC+ increasing production despite declining oil prices may be a strategy to address quota violations by member countries and to align with U.S. interests for lower oil prices [10] - Saudi Arabia's potential price war strategy could aim to undermine U.S. shale production, reflecting a competitive approach in the oil market [11] Group 5: Investment Considerations - Oil and gas stocks may serve as a hedge against geopolitical turmoil, particularly in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while also providing substantial dividends [12]