All right, we got to start with futures. What do you make of futures turning negative. They were just very slightly higher earlier, but now pretty firmly in the red.>> Yeah, I mean it's not not much to make of it right now. I guess it's a little bit of it's ahead of the Fed meeting today and you know, I I don't really have any kind of don't have any expectation there and I think we're waiting to see. >> All right.Um, looking ahead today, does it matter to you as an investor if we get that hawkish pause that ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to lower its benchmark interest rates by a quarter percentage point to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, with a high probability of this occurring already priced into the market [1]. Group 1 - The market anticipates that any indication of restraint from the Fed could negatively impact equities, suggesting a potential "hawkish cut" where rates are lowered but future cuts may be delayed [2]. - The "dot plot," which projects future interest rates, will serve as a key indicator of the Fed's stance, alongside Chair Jerome Powell's press conference and economic growth and inflation estimates [3]. - The Fed's actions may dampen market sentiment despite a rate cut, potentially leading to a subdued end-of-year market environment [3].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to lower its benchmark interest rates by a quarter percentage point to a range of 3.5%-3.75% [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - Traders are anticipating an 88.6% chance of the rate cut, indicating that the news is likely already reflected in stock prices [2] - Any indication of restraint from the Fed could negatively impact equities, suggesting a potential "hawkish cut" where rates are lowered but future cuts may be delayed [2] Group 2: Future Projections - The "dot plot" will provide insights into Fed officials' projections for interest rates over the coming years, serving as a key indicator of any hawkish stance [3] - Investors will closely analyze Chair Jerome Powell's press conference and central bankers' estimates for U.S. economic growth and inflation to assess the Fed's future rate trajectory [3] - There is a possibility that year-end market sentiment may be subdued this year despite the rate cut [3]

MicroStrategy (MSTR) shares closed comfortably in the green on Dec. 9 as Bitcoin (BTCUSD) – the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap – rallied ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. BTC pushed past $94,000 this morning as investors grew more optimistic that the U.S. central bank will deliver a “hawkish cut” on Thursday. More News from Barchart Despite today’s gain, MicroStrategy stock remains down over 50% versus its year-to-date high in mid-July. www.barchart.com Is It Worth Buying Mic ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing a contentious meeting that will test Chair Jerome Powell's ability to secure support for a third consecutive interest rate cut amid a divided committee and mixed economic signals [1][2]. Economic Conditions - The Fed's 19-member rate-setting committee is sharply divided on whether to lower borrowing costs, with inflation remaining elevated while hiring is weak and the unemployment rate has risen [2][3]. - The unemployment rate increased to 4.4% in September, marking the highest level in four years, and companies reportedly shed 32,000 jobs in November according to ADP [13]. Committee Dynamics - Some economists predict that three Fed officials may vote against the proposed quarter-point cut, potentially leading to the most dissenting votes in six years [3]. - The potential for greater disagreement within the committee is seen as a sign of healthy debate, although sharp splits could undermine financial market confidence [6][12]. Future Outlook - Most economists expect a "hawkish cut," where the Fed will reduce rates while signaling a pause to assess the economy's health [8][15]. - Fed officials will have up to three months of backlogged jobs and inflation data to consider before their late January meeting, which could influence future rate decisions [14].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement its third consecutive interest rate cut, reducing the key interest rate to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, while signaling caution about future cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee is divided between those advocating for cuts to mitigate labor market weakness and those concerned that further easing could worsen inflation [2]. - The anticipated outcome is a "hawkish cut," where the Fed reduces rates but communicates that no additional cuts are imminent [2][3]. Group 2: Communication and Expectations - Bill English, a former Fed official, predicts that the Fed will convey a message of comfort with current rates, indicating no immediate need for further adjustments unless conditions change significantly [3]. - Market analysts expect the Fed's statement to reflect a higher threshold for any future cuts, with references to the timing and extent of potential adjustments [3]. - Investors will closely monitor updates on individual officials' rate expectations, GDP forecasts, unemployment, inflation, and possible changes to the Fed's asset purchase strategy [3].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement a "hawkish cut" of 25 basis points, with potential dissent among members regarding the decision [1][2] - There may be two to three members advocating for keeping interest rates unchanged, indicating significant dissent within the Fed [2] - The upcoming announcement of a new Fed official could influence market dynamics, particularly if it is Kevin Hasset [5] Group 2 - The bond market is anticipated to remain relatively stable despite a potential decrease in interest rates, as historical trends suggest the Fed funds rate typically sits about 100 basis points below the 10-year rate [6][7] - A significant amount of loans, over $15 trillion, are tied to the Fed funds rate, which will stimulate the economy through short-term borrowing despite limited impact on long-term rates [8] - Current economic indicators suggest that the economy is performing well, with no significant downturn in sales, which may alleviate concerns regarding the impact of tariffs [11]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion centers around the potential appointment of Kevin Hasset as the next Federal Reserve chair and the implications for the bond market, with a focus on long-term reforms needed within the Fed rather than short-term market reactions [1][4][5]. Group 1: Bond Market Reactions - There is skepticism regarding the concerns of bond investors about Hasset's potential appointment, as these worries have not been reflected in market behavior [2][3]. - The yield movements observed are attributed more to external factors, such as Japan's economic situation, rather than the Fed chair appointment [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Dynamics - The next chair will face a fractured Federal Reserve that requires time to establish authority and a unified vision for the economy [4][7]. - The importance of long-term reform within the Fed is emphasized, with all candidates on the shortlist acknowledging the need for such changes [4][5]. Group 3: Market Expectations - There is a strong market expectation (91%) for a rate cut in the upcoming Fed meeting, with the belief that the cut will be framed in a hawkish manner due to the confusing economic data [8]. - The Fed's tendency to be excessively data-dependent is noted, which may lead to a more hawkish signal despite the need for a forward-looking approach [9].

Welcome back to Morning Trade Live. It's time now for the big picture. So, let's welcome in Cooper Howard, director of fixed income research and strategy, Schwab Center for Financial Research.Okay, a lot of information to chew on this morning. Cooper, what did you make of all the data we got. Let's start off with ADP.>> Yeah, that was definitely the big one that the market has somewhat focused on. Um, what really stood out to me is obviously we got the headline print that was a negative number when the mark ...

December. >> Yes, definitely in the cards. Um >> on the cards or erasing certainty now.>> Uh given the statement by Waller just now and Marley, it's getting very close to near certain. >> Yeah. >> And one factor to consider is that once the market probabilities are this high, >> yeah, >> Fed follows through >> and December's the blackout, sorry, Friday is the blackout period for the December meeting.>> So they have a few more days to correct course. >> Yeah. Um otherwise if the probability is 70 80 >> let's ...