All right, we got to start with futures. What do you make of futures turning negative. They were just very slightly higher earlier, but now pretty firmly in the red.>> Yeah, I mean it's not not much to make of it right now. I guess it's a little bit of it's ahead of the Fed meeting today and you know, I I don't really have any kind of don't have any expectation there and I think we're waiting to see. >> All right.Um, looking ahead today, does it matter to you as an investor if we get that hawkish pause that ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to lower its benchmark interest rates by a quarter percentage point to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, with a high probability of this occurring already priced into the market [1]. Group 1 - The market anticipates that any indication of restraint from the Fed could negatively impact equities, suggesting a potential "hawkish cut" where rates are lowered but future cuts may be delayed [2]. - The "dot plot," which projects future interest rates, will serve as a key indicator of the Fed's stance, alongside Chair Jerome Powell's press conference and economic growth and inflation estimates [3]. - The Fed's actions may dampen market sentiment despite a rate cut, potentially leading to a subdued end-of-year market environment [3].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to lower its benchmark interest rates by a quarter percentage point to a range of 3.5%-3.75% [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - Traders are anticipating an 88.6% chance of the rate cut, indicating that the news is likely already reflected in stock prices [2] - Any indication of restraint from the Fed could negatively impact equities, suggesting a potential "hawkish cut" where rates are lowered but future cuts may be delayed [2] Group 2: Future Projections - The "dot plot" will provide insights into Fed officials' projections for interest rates over the coming years, serving as a key indicator of any hawkish stance [3] - Investors will closely analyze Chair Jerome Powell's press conference and central bankers' estimates for U.S. economic growth and inflation to assess the Fed's future rate trajectory [3] - There is a possibility that year-end market sentiment may be subdued this year despite the rate cut [3]

MicroStrategy (MSTR) shares closed comfortably in the green on Dec. 9 as Bitcoin (BTCUSD) – the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap – rallied ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. BTC pushed past $94,000 this morning as investors grew more optimistic that the U.S. central bank will deliver a “hawkish cut” on Thursday. More News from Barchart Despite today’s gain, MicroStrategy stock remains down over 50% versus its year-to-date high in mid-July. www.barchart.com Is It Worth Buying Mic ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing a contentious meeting that will test Chair Jerome Powell's ability to secure support for a third consecutive interest rate cut amid a divided committee and mixed economic signals [1][2]. Economic Conditions - The Fed's 19-member rate-setting committee is sharply divided on whether to lower borrowing costs, with inflation remaining elevated while hiring is weak and the unemployment rate has risen [2][3]. - The unemployment rate increased to 4.4% in September, marking the highest level in four years, and companies reportedly shed 32,000 jobs in November according to ADP [13]. Committee Dynamics - Some economists predict that three Fed officials may vote against the proposed quarter-point cut, potentially leading to the most dissenting votes in six years [3]. - The potential for greater disagreement within the committee is seen as a sign of healthy debate, although sharp splits could undermine financial market confidence [6][12]. Future Outlook - Most economists expect a "hawkish cut," where the Fed will reduce rates while signaling a pause to assess the economy's health [8][15]. - Fed officials will have up to three months of backlogged jobs and inflation data to consider before their late January meeting, which could influence future rate decisions [14].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement its third consecutive interest rate cut, reducing the key interest rate to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, while signaling caution about future cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee is divided between those advocating for cuts to mitigate labor market weakness and those concerned that further easing could worsen inflation [2]. - The anticipated outcome is a "hawkish cut," where the Fed reduces rates but communicates that no additional cuts are imminent [2][3]. Group 2: Communication and Expectations - Bill English, a former Fed official, predicts that the Fed will convey a message of comfort with current rates, indicating no immediate need for further adjustments unless conditions change significantly [3]. - Market analysts expect the Fed's statement to reflect a higher threshold for any future cuts, with references to the timing and extent of potential adjustments [3]. - Investors will closely monitor updates on individual officials' rate expectations, GDP forecasts, unemployment, inflation, and possible changes to the Fed's asset purchase strategy [3].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement a "hawkish cut" of 25 basis points, with potential dissent among members regarding the decision [1][2] - There may be two to three members advocating for keeping interest rates unchanged, indicating significant dissent within the Fed [2] - The upcoming announcement of a new Fed official could influence market dynamics, particularly if it is Kevin Hasset [5] Group 2 - The bond market is anticipated to remain relatively stable despite a potential decrease in interest rates, as historical trends suggest the Fed funds rate typically sits about 100 basis points below the 10-year rate [6][7] - A significant amount of loans, over $15 trillion, are tied to the Fed funds rate, which will stimulate the economy through short-term borrowing despite limited impact on long-term rates [8] - Current economic indicators suggest that the economy is performing well, with no significant downturn in sales, which may alleviate concerns regarding the impact of tariffs [11]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion centers around the potential appointment of Kevin Hasset as the next Federal Reserve chair and the implications for the bond market, with a focus on long-term reforms needed within the Fed rather than short-term market reactions [1][4][5]. Group 1: Bond Market Reactions - There is skepticism regarding the concerns of bond investors about Hasset's potential appointment, as these worries have not been reflected in market behavior [2][3]. - The yield movements observed are attributed more to external factors, such as Japan's economic situation, rather than the Fed chair appointment [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Dynamics - The next chair will face a fractured Federal Reserve that requires time to establish authority and a unified vision for the economy [4][7]. - The importance of long-term reform within the Fed is emphasized, with all candidates on the shortlist acknowledging the need for such changes [4][5]. Group 3: Market Expectations - There is a strong market expectation (91%) for a rate cut in the upcoming Fed meeting, with the belief that the cut will be framed in a hawkish manner due to the confusing economic data [8]. - The Fed's tendency to be excessively data-dependent is noted, which may lead to a more hawkish signal despite the need for a forward-looking approach [9].

Economic Overview - The recent ADP report showed a negative headline print, contrary to market expectations for a positive number, indicating weakness in the labor market, particularly among smaller businesses [2][4] - Smaller businesses experienced a decline of 120,000 jobs, while larger companies saw an increase of 39,000 jobs, highlighting a K-shaped recovery where larger businesses and higher-income individuals are faring better than their smaller counterparts [4][3] Labor Market Insights - Despite the weakness in small businesses, the overall unemployment rate remains low at around 4%, which is historically considered full employment, suggesting that the economy is not in a recessionary environment [7][6] - There are indications of pockets of weakness in the economy, but it is too early to declare a full-blown recession [6][5] Federal Reserve Expectations - The market anticipates a high probability of a rate cut in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with discussions around the possibility of a hawkish cut, which could influence future expectations for interest rates [8][10] - The Federal Reserve's actions will largely depend on the labor market's development, with expectations of two to three rate cuts next year, although inflation remains above the 2% target [11][9] Fixed Income Market Opportunities - Investors are advised to focus on a benchmark duration of about 6 years and higher-rated investments due to concerns about a potential economic slowdown [15] - The municipal bond market is highlighted as an area of opportunity, particularly for investors in higher tax brackets, as these bonds typically offer tax-exempt interest and have shown stable credit quality [17][18]

December. >> Yes, definitely in the cards. Um >> on the cards or erasing certainty now.>> Uh given the statement by Waller just now and Marley, it's getting very close to near certain. >> Yeah. >> And one factor to consider is that once the market probabilities are this high, >> yeah, >> Fed follows through >> and December's the blackout, sorry, Friday is the blackout period for the December meeting.>> So they have a few more days to correct course. >> Yeah. Um otherwise if the probability is 70 80 >> let's ...