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Summary of Lowe's (LOW) FY Conference Call - June 11, 2025 Company Overview - **Company**: Lowe's (LOW) - **Event**: FY Conference Call - **Date**: June 11, 2025 Key Points Industry and Market Conditions - The overall health of homeowners is strong, characterized by a solid balance sheet, wage growth, low unemployment, and record equity [5][6] - Personal disposable income is growing faster than inflation, which is a positive indicator for the DIY market [6][7] - Elevated mortgage rates are creating headwinds for home improvement, with housing turnover at its lowest since the 1990s [6][9] - Short-term borrowing rates are also affecting discretionary big-ticket DIY projects [6][10] - Despite current challenges, there is optimism for medium to long-term demand in home improvement due to factors like aging housing stock and available equity [7][8] Consumer Behavior and Demand - Consumer sentiment remains healthy, but affordability challenges persist due to high rates and inflation [9][10] - Approximately 75% of mortgages are fixed below 5%, leading to a "lock-in effect" where homeowners are hesitant to move [9][10] - There is an estimated $50 billion of pent-up demand in home improvement projects, as these projects are often delayed rather than canceled [16][17] - Seasonal demand has met expectations in favorable weather conditions, indicating a strong business strategy [23][24] Tariffs and Global Trade Policy - Lowe's has about 20% of its cost of goods sold exposed to China, with recent tariff escalations prompting a pause in activities from that region [27][28] - The company is diversifying its supply chain and exploring alternative countries for sourcing to mitigate tariff impacts [29][30] - Lowe's is committed to maintaining competitive pricing and market share despite tariff challenges [31][32] Strategic Initiatives and Transformations - Lowe's has undergone significant transformation over the past several years, modernizing its IT systems and supply chain to improve operational efficiency [41][42] - The company has reintroduced national brands to better serve professional customers and enhance credibility [56][58] - A focus on segmentation has allowed Lowe's to tailor its offerings to different customer demographics, such as rural and urban markets [48][50] E-commerce and Online Growth - E-commerce has grown from 4% to approximately 12% of total revenue, with ongoing investments in digital platforms and user experience [66][67] - A partnership with Miracle aims to enhance online marketplace capabilities, which is expected to drive further growth [68][69] - Over 50% of online orders are fulfilled through stores, showcasing the integration of online and physical retail strategies [71] Financial Performance and Capital Allocation - Lowe's maintains a consistent capital allocation strategy, targeting a 35% dividend payout ratio and prioritizing organic and inorganic investments [72][73] - The company has paused share repurchases to finance the recent ADG acquisition, while focusing on maintaining a strong credit rating [73][74] Future Outlook - Lowe's plans to open 10 new stores this year, with a run rate of 10 to 15 stores annually in the coming years [64][65] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on recovery in the DIY market, leveraging its total home strategy and operational improvements [45][46] Additional Insights - Weather is a significant factor influencing business performance, particularly during peak seasons [21][22] - The company is focused on enhancing its loyalty program, which has around 30 million members, to better understand customer shopping patterns [52][53]

Core Viewpoint - The market reacted negatively to Lowe's recent earnings report despite beating earnings estimates, primarily due to cautious guidance for future quarters [1][11]. Financial Performance - Lowe's reported net sales of over $20.9 billion, a 2% decline from the same period in 2024, with comparable sales down by 1.7% [3]. - Net income decreased to $1.64 billion ($2.92 per diluted share) from $1.76 billion in the previous year [3]. - Analysts had estimated revenue slightly under $21 billion and per-share net income of $2.88, expecting a 2.1% decline in same-store sales [5]. Competitive Landscape - Home Depot, Lowe's main competitor, reported a 9.5% increase in revenue while missing on net income, which may have influenced investor sentiment towards Lowe's [6]. Management Commentary - CEO Marvin Ellison noted that cautious consumer spending and adverse weather conditions negatively impacted results, particularly at the start of the spring season [7]. - CFO Brandon Sink expressed hope for improved discretionary spending and DIY traffic but indicated that current conditions are not expected to change significantly in 2025 [11][12]. Future Guidance - Lowe's maintained its 2025 sales guidance of $83.5 billion to $84.5 billion, with comparable sales expected to be flat to 1% higher than the previous fiscal year [9]. - The projected net income per share is between $12.15 and $12.40, aligning closely with analyst estimates [10]. Growth Strategy - The company announced the acquisition of Artisan Design Group for over $1.3 billion, which is expected to enhance its Pro offerings and overall fundamentals [13][14]. Investor Sentiment - The overall investor reaction to Lowe's quarterly performance was negative, reflecting concerns about the company's ability to reverse the downward trend in its business [15].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total sales for Q1 2025 were $39.9 billion, an increase of 9.4% from the same period last year [5][25]. - Adjusted diluted earnings per share were $3.56, down from $3.67 in Q1 2024, reflecting a decrease of approximately 3% [6][28]. - Gross margin was 33.8%, a decrease of 35 basis points from the previous year [26]. - Operating margin for Q1 was 12.9%, compared to 13.9% in Q1 2024 [27]. - Return on invested capital was 31.3%, down from 37.1% in the same quarter last year [29]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Six out of 16 merchandising departments posted positive comps, including appliances, plumbing, indoor garden, electrical, outdoor garden, and building materials [19]. - Comp sales in the U.S. were positive 0.2% for the quarter, with negative 3.3% in February, positive 1.3% in March, and positive 1.8% in April [25][26]. - Pro comp sales outpaced DIY customers, with strength in pro-heavy categories like gypsum, decking, concrete, and siding [20]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In local currency, Canada posted comps below the company average, while Mexico posted positive comps [6]. - Foreign exchange rates negatively impacted total company comps by approximately 70 basis points for the quarter [26]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on diversifying its global supply chain, with over 50% of purchases sourced in the U.S. and plans to ensure no single country outside the U.S. represents more than 10% of purchases [7][9]. - The company aims to invest in its business to gain market share, particularly in periods of disruption, and is focused on enhancing the pro ecosystem to better serve professionals [10][11]. - The addressable market for home improvement is approximately $1 trillion, with a healthy consumer base and rising home equity encouraging investment in home improvements [9]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating the current macroeconomic environment, with customer engagement continuing from the previous fiscal year [30]. - The company reaffirmed its fiscal 2025 guidance, expecting total sales growth of approximately 2.8% and comp sales growth of about 1% compared to fiscal 2024 [30][31]. - Management noted that while there is macro uncertainty, the fundamentals of home improvement remain strong, with a healthy consumer base and increasing home equity [39][40]. Other Important Information - The company opened three new stores, bringing the total store count to 2,350 [28]. - Merchandise inventories were $25.8 billion, up approximately $3.3 billion compared to the previous year, with inventory turns down from 4.5 times to 4.3 times [28]. Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on overall demand environment and sales trends - Management noted that macro concerns have eased, with improved consumer sentiment and low unemployment, but larger remodeling projects remain pressured due to high interest rates [36][39]. Question: SG&A growth and one-time impacts - SG&A grew 12% year-over-year, influenced by a legal settlement from the previous year and the addition of SRS expenses [41][42]. Question: Comp guidance and potential for better performance - Management reaffirmed guidance, noting that FX pressure impacted results, but they feel good about business heading into Q2 [50][51]. Question: Tariffs and pricing strategy - The company is diversifying its supply chain to mitigate tariff impacts and does not anticipate broad-based price increases for customers [60][62]. Question: Deferred demand in home improvement - Management expects to capture share opportunities from deferred demand as macro conditions improve [68][70]. Question: Regional performance and housing activity - Some markets showed slight softening, but overall sales remained stable, with weather being a significant factor in performance [99][100].

The home improvement retail sector in the United States is dominated by two giants — The Home Depot Inc. (HD) and Lowe’s Companies Inc. (LOW) . As the top players in the industry, both companies serve millions of homeowners, DIY enthusiasts and professional contractors (Pro) across North America. While these companies share a similar customer base and product assortment, their strategic approaches, market positions and financial performances set them apart. With the housing market in flux and consumer spend ...

Core Insights - CRAFTSMAN, a brand under Stanley Black & Decker, released a survey revealing how DIYers prepare for home improvement projects, likening the process to a football draft where teamwork and the right tools are essential [2][3] Group 1: Survey Findings - The survey indicates that more than half of DIYers consider the powered cordless screwdriver as their top tool choice, highlighting its versatility [5][7] - Spouses are the most preferred project partners, with 30% of respondents selecting them as their first overall pick, followed by best friends at 23% [6][5] - Rock music is the leading genre for DIYers to get motivated, chosen by 22% of respondents, followed by hip-hop/rap at 17% and country at 16% [4][12] Group 2: Tool Preferences - The powered cordless screwdriver is viewed as a dual-threat tool, capable of handling various tasks with precision [7] - The circular saw is recognized for its powerful cutting ability, akin to a running back breaking through defenses [7] - The hammer drill is noted for its effectiveness in penetrating tough materials like concrete and brick, serving as a hard-hitting specialist in the DIY toolkit [7] Group 3: Survey Methodology - The survey was conducted by Atomik Research, involving 1,006 adults across the United States, ensuring a representative sample based on demographic variables [9]

Core Points - Lowe's Companies, Inc. reported net earnings of $1.1 billion and diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.99 for the quarter ended January 31, 2025, an increase from diluted EPS of $1.77 in the fourth quarter of 2023 [1][10] - Total sales for the quarter were $18.6 billion, with comparable sales increasing by 0.2%, driven by high-single-digit Pro and online sales, strong holiday performance, and rebuilding efforts post-hurricanes [2][3] - The company recognized an $80 million pre-tax gain from the sale of its Canadian retail business, which positively impacted diluted EPS by $0.06 [1][24] Financial Performance - The adjusted diluted EPS for the fourth quarter of 2024, excluding the gain from the Canadian business sale, was $1.93 [1][27] - Gross margin for the quarter was 32.86%, compared to 32.40% in the same quarter of the previous year [15] - Operating income for the quarter was $1.83 billion, representing 9.87% of sales, an increase from 9.07% in the prior year [15] Capital Allocation - During the quarter, the company repurchased approximately 5.5 million shares for $1.4 billion and paid $650 million in dividends [4] - For the fiscal year, Lowe's returned $6.5 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends [4] Business Outlook - The company introduced its outlook for fiscal 2025, indicating continued near-term uncertainty in the home improvement market [5] - Expected total sales for fiscal 2025 are projected to be between $83.5 billion and $84.5 billion, with comparable sales anticipated to be flat to up 1% compared to the prior year [11] Operational Highlights - As of January 31, 2025, Lowe's operated 1,748 stores with a total retail selling space of 195 million square feet [3] - The company serves approximately 16 million customer transactions weekly in the United States [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total sales for fiscal year 2024 were $159.5 billion, an increase of 4.5% from the previous year [6][33] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share for the fourth quarter were $3.13, compared to $2.86 in the prior year, reflecting a 9.4% increase [7][37] - Gross margin for the fourth quarter was approximately 32.8%, a decrease of 25 basis points from the previous year [33] - Operating margin for the fourth quarter was 11.3%, down from 11.9% in the same quarter last year [35] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the fourth quarter, 10 of the 16 merchandising departments posted positive comps, including appliances and building materials [23] - Comp sales in the fourth quarter increased by 0.8%, with U.S. stores seeing a 1.3% increase [7][31] - Online sales, excluding the impact of an extra week in the quarter, increased approximately 9% compared to the fourth quarter of last year [24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - 15 of the 19 U.S. regions delivered positive comps in the fourth quarter, with Canada and Mexico also reporting positive comps in local currency [8] - The company experienced a net contribution of approximately $220 million in hurricane-related sales, positively impacting total company comps by approximately 65 basis points for the quarter [32] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains focused on creating the best interconnected shopping experience and growing its Pro wallet share through strategic investments [9][10] - The acquisition of SRS contributed $6.4 billion in sales for the seven months of ownership, with expectations for mid-single-digit organic growth in fiscal 2025 [11][41] - Plans to open 13 new stores in fiscal 2025, building on the 12 new stores opened in fiscal 2024 [13][41] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the underlying momentum of the business, despite uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment [40] - The company expects total sales growth of approximately 2.8% and comp sales growth of approximately 1% for fiscal 2025 [41][43] - Management noted that while there are signs of normalization in the home improvement market, continued pressure on larger remodeling projects is anticipated [40] Other Important Information - The company announced a 2.2% increase in its quarterly dividend to $2.30 per share, equating to an annual dividend of $9.20 per share [39] - Return on invested capital was approximately 31.3%, down from 36.7% in the previous year [38] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the macro housing backdrop and its impact on comp sales? - Management indicated that while there was slight improvement in housing turnover, they do not expect a significant rebound in new housing starts or mortgage rates [47][48] Question: Were the increases in appliances and paint volume-driven? - Management noted that the positive performance was a combination of healthy transactions and unit performance across various categories [60][62] Question: What market share assumptions are embedded in the 2025 outlook? - Management expects the overall market to be flat, with continued strength in their business initiatives contributing to incremental sales [71][72] Question: How is the SRS acquisition impacting the bottom line? - Management confirmed that SRS is cash accretive and contributing positively to both top and bottom lines, with a mix impact of about 40 basis points [105][106] Question: What is the current pricing environment? - Management stated that the pricing environment has settled into a rational market, with no significant changes in promotional activity compared to pre-COVID levels [106][108]