As any savvy investor knows, the crucial part of a company's earnings report isn't the historical financial figures -- it's the guidance. Stocks trade on the future, not the past.This is a major reason why the market was rather cool on Lowe's Companies' (LOW -1.16%) recently released first-quarter earnings report. The company beat analyst estimates on earnings and only slightly missed on revenue, but what it had to say about the coming quarters concerned investors -- and rightly so.Let's dive in to see what ...

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Marvin R. Ellison, Chairman & CEO "Despite near-term uncertainty and housing market headwinds, our team's unwavering focus on exceptional customer service has elevated satisfaction scores. Strategic investments in technology, inviting store environments, and our dedicated associates continue to solidify our commitment to our customers and communities." 3 of 15 Regions Q1 2025 RESULTS Delivered comp growth above company average Ranked #1 In customer satisfaction by J.D. Power among home improvement retailers ...

Core Viewpoint - Lowe's reported a smaller-than-expected decline in first-quarter sales and plans to maintain competitive pricing, while not ruling out potential price increases due to tariffs [1][5][12] Sales Performance - The company experienced a 1.7% drop in same-store sales for the quarter ended May 2, which was better than analysts' average estimate of a 2% decline [12] - Steady demand from construction professionals contributed to the smaller-than-expected sales drop [6] Pricing Strategy - CEO Marvin Ellison emphasized the importance of competitive pricing to avoid losing market share to competitors [1] - CFO Brandon Sink indicated that profit margins are expected to remain flat this fiscal year, with tariff impacts anticipated in the second half of the year [2] Tariff Impact - The imposition of tariffs has raised concerns in the retail sector, with Walmart warning of potential price increases and Target lowering its sales and profit forecasts [3] - Lowe's and Home Depot have both been affected by tariff fears, which have negatively impacted consumer sentiment and renovation projects [4][8] Supply Chain Management - Lowe's has diversified its supply chain and increased local suppliers to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs [7] - Approximately 60% of Lowe's purchase volume comes from the U.S., while 20% is sourced from China, with specific items like holiday trees and tools being affected by tariffs [10] Future Outlook - The company expects comparable sales for 2025 to be flat to 1% higher, with earnings per share projected between $12.15 and $12.40 [11]

Core Insights - Lowe's Companies reported Q1 FY2025 sales of $20.9 billion, with comparable sales down 1.7%, while Pro sales showed mid-single-digit growth, offsetting weaker DIY demand [1][2] - The company affirmed its full-year sales outlook of $83.5-$84.5 billion for FY2025, despite challenging market conditions [2][10] Sales Performance - Q1 FY2025 sales reached $20.9 billion, with comparable sales declining by 1.7% [1] - Pro segment sales experienced mid-single-digit growth, countering the decline in DIY spending [3] Strategic Acquisitions - Lowe's announced the acquisition of Artisan Design Group (ADG) for $1.325 billion, expected to close in Q2 FY2025, targeting a fragmented $50 billion market [3][4] - ADG generated $1.8 billion in sales in 2024 and is projected to be EPS accretive in FY2026 [3][11] Digital Transformation - Online sales increased by 6% in Q1 FY2025, driven by improved traffic and conversion rates [2][5] - The company is in the early stages of deploying a third-party home improvement marketplace, enhancing product breadth without significant inventory risk [6][7] Supply Chain Management - 60% of purchases are sourced domestically, with China accounting for approximately 20% due to diversification efforts [8][9] - The company is actively working to further reduce dependency on China and mitigate tariff risks through robust supplier relationships [9] Future Outlook - Management reaffirmed FY2025 sales guidance of $83.5-$84.5 billion, with comparable sales expected to be flat to up 1% [10] - Operating margin is forecasted at 12.3%-12.4%, with diluted EPS outlook of $12.15-$12.40 [10]

Core Insights - Lowe's is enhancing its online marketplace through a partnership with Mirakl, aiming to provide more options and convenience for DIY and professional customers [1][3] - The marketplace features a wide range of products from value to premium, allowing Lowe's to expand into new product categories [2][4] - The collaboration with Mirakl is expected to accelerate Lowe's e-commerce growth and improve the management of third-party seller catalogs [3][5] Company Overview - Lowe's operates over 1,700 home improvement stores and serves approximately 16 million customer transactions weekly in the U.S. [8] - The company reported total fiscal year 2024 sales exceeding $83 billion [8] - Lowe's employs around 300,000 associates and is committed to community support through various programs [8] Marketplace Features - Lowe's Marketplace offers products from verified sellers, including small businesses and nationally recognized brands, ensuring quality and alignment with Lowe's standards [6] - Members of the MyLowe's Rewards loyalty program can earn points on marketplace purchases, enhancing customer engagement [5] - All marketplace products are available for home delivery and can be returned to any of Lowe's stores, providing added convenience [5]

Core Viewpoint - Lowe's Companies has reaffirmed its 2025 outlook and capital return strategy, indicating a potential continuation of its stock price uptrend despite mixed quarterly results [1][8]. Financial Performance - Revenue contracted by 2.2% year-over-year, missing consensus estimates, with comparable sales down 1.7% due to weather and consumer-related weaknesses, although growth was noted in professional and online segments [6][8]. - GAAP earnings reported at $2.92, slightly ahead of consensus estimates, despite a faster contraction than revenue [7]. Guidance and Forecast - Lowe's forecasts revenue between $83.5 billion and $84.5 billion for 2025, with margins expected to remain strong [8]. - The 12-month stock price forecast is set at $276.17, indicating a potential upside of 20.97% based on 25 analyst ratings [9][12]. Shareholder Returns - The company has a dividend yield of approximately 2.01%, with a low payout ratio of about 40% of the 2025 earnings forecast, and a 5% increase in the 2024 payment is anticipated [10][11]. - Share repurchases have slowed but remain sufficient to offset share-based compensation, resulting in a net 2% decline in shares compared to the previous year [10]. Market Sentiment - Analysts maintain a Moderate Buy rating on Lowe's stock, with ongoing institutional buying expected to provide bullish momentum [12][13]. - Recent price target reductions from some analysts may limit potential gains, but overall coverage remains firm with a bullish bias [12].

Core Insights - Lowe's reported revenue of $20.93 billion for the quarter ended April 2025, reflecting a 2% decrease year-over-year, with EPS at $2.92 compared to $3.06 in the same quarter last year [1] - The revenue exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $20.92 billion by 0.03%, while the EPS surpassed the consensus estimate of $2.88 by 1.39% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Comparable store sales decreased by 1.7% year-over-year, better than the average analyst estimate of a 2.1% decline [4] - The total number of stores remained at 1,750, matching the average estimate from five analysts [4] - Sales per store were reported at $11.96 million, slightly above the average estimate of $11.92 million from two analysts [4] Stock Performance - Over the past month, Lowe's shares returned +5.6%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite increased by +12.7% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Insights - Two major retailers, Target Corp and Lowe's Companies Inc, reported mixed earnings results, leading to declines in their stock prices due to cautious outlooks and macroeconomic challenges [1] Target Corp - Target's stock decreased by 7% to $91.32 after missing first-quarter revenue estimates and lowering its full-year sales outlook [2] - The retailer reported earnings of $2.03 per share, exceeding estimates, but revenue of $24.53 billion fell short of the $24.52 billion consensus [2] - Year-to-date, Target's stock is down 32.4%, with its 50-day moving average hindering any rallies this month [2] Lowe's Companies Inc - Lowe's stock fell by 1.4% to $227.79, despite beating earnings expectations with first-quarter earnings of $2.92 per share, compared to the expected $2.88 [3] - Revenue for Lowe's was $20.93 billion, slightly missing expectations [3] - The company reaffirmed its full-year outlook, projecting earnings between $12.15 and $12.40 per share and comparable sales growth between flat and 1% [3] Options Activity - Both Target and Lowe's are experiencing heightened intraday options activity, with volumes at four times the average pace for each [4] - Target has seen 2,884 calls and 2,063 puts traded, while Lowe's has recorded 2,908 calls and 2,075 puts [4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, the company reported sales of $20.9 billion, with comparable sales down 1.7%, aligning with expectations [5][36] - Diluted earnings per share were $2.92, consistent with expectations, while gross margin improved to 33.4%, up 19 basis points from the previous year [36][38] - Comparable average ticket increased by 2.1%, but comparable transactions declined by 3.8% due to unfavorable weather impacting spring traffic [36][37] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Pro sales experienced mid-single-digit growth, driven by a strong product and service offering [10][28] - Online sales rose by 6%, supported by increased traffic and conversion rates [13] - The company saw solid growth in categories such as patio furniture, fertilizer, and appliances, despite ongoing pressure in DIY discretionary project demand [19][22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted a decline in DIY bigger ticket discretionary demand, attributed to macroeconomic uncertainties and unfavorable weather conditions [6][24] - The housing market remains a significant focus, with an estimated 18 million new homes needed in the U.S. by 2033, driving pro plan spending [11][52] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is committed to diversifying global sourcing, with approximately 60% of purchases originating in the U.S. and efforts to reduce dependency on China [8][9] - The acquisition of Artisan Design Group for $1.325 billion is expected to enhance pro penetration and position the company in a fragmented $50 billion market [11][39] - The company aims to accelerate online growth and enhance customer experience through technology investments, including the launch of an AI-powered virtual adviser named Milo [15][30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate macroeconomic challenges, citing healthy consumer balance sheets and positive demand drivers [78] - The outlook for fiscal 2025 remains unchanged, with expected sales between $83.5 billion and $84.5 billion and comparable sales projected to be flat to up 1% [40][42] Other Important Information - The company celebrated its recognition as number one in customer satisfaction among home improvement retailers by J.D. Power [6][25] - The company is focused on community support initiatives, including a commitment to deliver 10 million square feet of impact nationwide [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Relationship of comp to expense leverage for the rest of the year - Management indicated that the first half is mainly a weather story, expecting roughly flat comps and strong inventory levels for Q2 [46][48] Question: Larger Pro and Artisan Design Group acquisition - Management expressed confidence in the acquisition, viewing it as a strategic move to enhance pro penetration and capitalize on market opportunities [49][52] Question: Tariffs and pricing impacts - Management emphasized a portfolio approach to pricing and strong supplier relationships to navigate tariff impacts [66][70] Question: Soft trends in bigger ticket projects - Management noted that consumer confidence and mortgage rates are key factors affecting larger discretionary spending [80][81] Question: Performance in markets with steady spring weather - Management confirmed that business performance improves significantly with favorable weather conditions [89][91] Question: DIY environment and competition - Management acknowledged increased competition but emphasized the importance of product knowledge and customer service as competitive advantages [99][100]