Monetary Policy - South Africa's finance minister supports a 3% inflation target [1] - This gives political backing to the central bank's advocacy for the change [1]

RT Bloomberg Opinion (@opinion)Is the Fed’s inflation target still 2%?If so, the board has a funny way of showing it, @clive_crook explains 🎥 https://t.co/WQl7tZ3lWl ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement a second consecutive 25 basis point "risk management" cut in response to a softer US jobs market and a slight easing in September core CPI [1] - Market focus will be on the press conference for signals regarding future rate cuts, with a further 25 basis point cut by December being a possibility, though not guaranteed [2] - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions due to political pressure and differing views on the inflation target, complicating the decision-making process [3] Economic Context - The US economy is showing resilience, raising questions about the duration of the softer labor market data, while the ongoing government shutdown complicates the availability of official data [5] - Increased US trade tariffs and broader price pressures highlight the need for caution, as political interference could undermine the Fed's independence and credibility [4] - Current inflation remains above the official target of 2%, with some estimates suggesting it may average around 3% in the near future [3][6]

Group 1 - Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that the central bank will analyze various data, including information from Washington, to decide on potential interest rate hikes in October [1][4] - Ueda noted the resilience of global and U.S. economies, while acknowledging that the impact of U.S. tariffs may soon become apparent [2] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its 2025 global growth forecast, attributing the more benign tariff shocks to a potential slowdown in output due to renewed U.S.-China trade tensions [3] Group 2 - The BOJ ended a decade-long stimulus program last year and raised rates to 0.5% in January, believing Japan was close to achieving its inflation target [5] - With inflation exceeding the 2% target for over three years, the BOJ is prepared to continue raising rates if economic conditions improve [5] - Market expectations for a rate hike in October increased after two BOJ board members proposed a rate increase in September, although these expectations diminished following the election of Sanae Takaichi as Japan's first female prime minister [6] Group 3 - Analysts generally expect the BOJ to raise rates to 0.75% by January next year, although there is some disagreement regarding the exact timing [7]

Economic Outlook - The trade tensions between the United States and China pose a significant risk to Thailand's economic growth, with the central bank's deputy governor indicating limited room for further rate cuts [1][2] - The Bank of Thailand expects growth rates of 2.2% for the current year and 1.8% in 2026, which are below the potential growth rate of 2.7% [3] Monetary Policy - Despite sluggish economic growth, the central bank decided to maintain the key interest rate at 1.5%, which is historically low, rather than implementing cuts [4] - The deputy governor noted that lending rates have only dipped below 1.5% three times in history, during significant crises [4] Economic Constraints - The central bank is focusing on financial measures, such as debt restructuring and loan guarantee schemes, rather than solely relying on funding conditions to stimulate the economy [5] - Recent negative inflation data for six consecutive months does not necessitate a change in the central bank's inflation target of 1-3%, as declines are attributed to external factors [6]

Core Insights - The Chicago Fed has introduced new labor market indicators that combine private sector data with official labor statistics to provide a real-time view of hiring, layoffs, and other job information [1][4][21] Labor Market Indicators - The new indicators include a real-time estimate of the unemployment rate, the layoff and separations rate, and the hiring rate for unemployed workers, which collectively offer insights into the current job market [4][21] - Current statistics indicate stability in the job market, characterized by low hiring and low layoff rates, which contrasts with the larger swings observed in aggregate payroll employment numbers [5][21] Inflation and Interest Rates - The Fed maintains a long-term inflation target of 2%, emphasizing the need to return to this target despite recent inflationary pressures [6][16] - The current interest rate is viewed as mildly restrictive, with a neutral rate estimated to be 100 to 125 basis points lower than the current level [9][15] - There is a consensus among committee members that rates could potentially settle around 3% if inflation is brought back to the target [16] Economic Outlook - The labor market is cooling at a mild to modest pace, with the possibility of the unemployment rate decreasing, although this is less likely than it remaining stable or increasing [21][23] - The aggregate jobs numbers have shown a decline compared to the previous year, but factors such as immigration are influencing the supply side of the labor market [22]

Group 1 - The Conservative Income Portfolio targets high-value stocks with significant margins of safety, while the Enhanced Equity Income Solutions Portfolio aims to generate yields of 7-9% with reduced volatility [1] - Trapping Value, in collaboration with Preferred Stock Trader, focuses on capital preservation and income generation through Covered Calls and a fixed income portfolio that emphasizes high income potential and undervaluation [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's inflation target of 2% is questioned, indicating a potential disconnect in their monetary policy approach as investors prepare for a crucial meeting [1]

Market Overview - Global equities experienced an increase as expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut solidified following disappointing U.S. job data [1] - The Labor Department reported that U.S. job growth was overstated by 911,000 over the past year, indicating a longer-term decline in labor market momentum [2] - Markets are fully pricing in a 25-basis-point Fed cut on September 17, with an increased likelihood of a half-point move due to the employment data [2] Interest Rates and Treasury Yields - Two-year Treasury yields are around 3.55%, while 10-year yields have risen to 4.09% [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates next week despite inflation remaining around 3%, which is above the target [4] Commodity Markets - Gold reached a record high of $3,673.95 per ounce before a slight pullback, with prices rising again early on Wednesday [2] - Global oil benchmarks increased following military actions in the Middle East, with Brent crude trading near $67 and WTI above $63 [2] European Market Dynamics - Europe's STOXX 600 index rose slightly, driven by strong sales momentum from Spanish fast-fashion giant Inditex [2] - French bond yields remained stable after the appointment of Sebastien Lecornu as prime minister, indicating continuity in pro-business reforms [2] Geopolitical Events - Poland's military engagement in response to Russian attacks marks a significant escalation in NATO's involvement in the conflict [4] - U.S. President Donald Trump's call for EU tariffs on China aims to exert pressure on Russia, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions [4]

Bitcoin Adoption & Corporate Strategy - Corporations are increasingly driving Bitcoin adoption, catching up to initial adoption by individuals [4] - Businesses have emerged as the primary force behind Bitcoin's ongoing bull market [4] - Bitcoin inflows onto business balance sheets in the first eight months of 2025 have exceeded the total for all of 2024 by $125 billion [5] - Treasury companies account for 76% of all Bitcoin purchases since January 2024 and 60% of publicly reported business holdings [6] - A 1% allocation to Bitcoin in 2020 could have resulted in a $14 billion to $29 billion treasury gain for companies like Microsoft, Google, and Apple [12] - Businesses using River allocate an average of 22% of their net income to Bitcoin, with a median allocation of 10% [13] Inflation & Investment - Inflation has eroded the purchasing power of corporate balance sheets by $14 billion to $21 billion since 2020 [11] - Holding cash leads to losses due to the debasement of the dollar, while holding assets like stocks, gold, Bitcoin, and real estate leads to gains [16] - The dollar has lost 30% of its purchasing power since 2020 [17] Monetary Policy & Inflation Target - The Federal Reserve's inflation target of 2% may be too low, and a 3% target might be more appropriate given current economic conditions [20][21][23] - Consumer finances data suggests that 3% is the new 2% [27][28][29]

Inflation Target - The Federal Reserve's inflation target is 2% [1]