Central banks across developing Asia are facing a sudden shift in their policy outlook as traders ramp up bets on an Iran war-driven oil shock, adding to inflation pressures that were already building before the latest crisis https://t.co/FYtxIIfvza ...

bpawesome/iStock via Getty Images Listen here or on the go via Apple Podcasts and Spotify Global portfolio strategist James Kostohryz explains why the US and Israel are at war with Iran and why it may last longer than we think (0:35) Oil shocks can lead to business cycle recessions (29:00) Gold pricing in risk (37:20) US treasury bonds (53:40) Silver and copper (1:01:20) Transcript Rena Sherbill: James Kostohryz, very happy to have you back on Investing Experts. Welcome back to the show. James A. Kos ...

Group 1: Global Macro Risk and Oil Supply - Rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are prompting crypto traders to consider global macro risks alongside blockchain fundamentals, as approximately 20% of the world's oil supply passes through this region daily [1] - Military activity has led to a significant increase in war-risk insurance premiums, with oil tanker premiums surging over 50% and insurance costs for a $100 million vessel rising from $250,000 to $375,000 per voyage [2] Group 2: Implications for Oil Prices and Inflation - Analysts estimate that crude oil prices could rise to $120–$130 per barrel due to potential supply disruptions, which would have broader implications for inflation expectations [3][4] - An increase in oil prices would likely reignite inflation expectations, impacting transportation, manufacturing, and consumer goods costs, thereby exerting upward pressure on global Consumer Price Index (CPI) data [4] Group 3: Impact on Central Banks and Yields - Rising inflation expectations may force central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, to delay or scale back anticipated rate cuts, leading to higher Treasury yields [6] - Increased yields tighten global liquidity conditions, causing capital to rotate away from speculative assets, which could result in trillions in rate-sensitive capital being repriced [7] Group 4: Crypto Market Dynamics - Bitcoin has historically acted as a high-beta liquidity asset during tightening cycles, often underperforming during periods of rising real yields as leverage unwinds and funding costs increase [8]