vitalik makes the [great] case that democracy could not function without privacyI'd go further and say that markets can not function without privacymarkets, like democracies, need secret ballots — private intent, public outcomeas an example, consider the idea of copytradingif one person with size (or authority) makes a trade to express their view of the market, others copy the trade (with varying size)so the market ends up representing not the aggregated view of individuals but the authority of fewer source ...

the reason gold is going up violently is not because of some extremely rare eventit is because of increasing reflexivity within an increasingly connected world causing self reinforcing beliefsthis is the new norm, I can not believe people don't get it yetgoing forward all narratives will be violently aggressively but short livedthe idea of a cycle is dead, the cycle happens every single daymert | helius.dev (@0xMert_):the idea of a cycle as you know it is likely deadthe internet increased the connectivity o ...

Reflexivity and Market Dynamics - Reflexivity, where investors' beliefs shape the market and vice versa, is amplified by the convergence of the internet and finance [1][2] - Narratives spread faster than fundamentals on the financial internet, similar to how fake news spreads faster than truth [2] - Systems that benefit from reflexivity include privacy-focused systems [3] Privacy and Financialization - Increased speculation on privacy strengthens the underlying system's privacy properties as shielded pools grow [3] - Privacy-related systems like Zcash (ZEC) are expected to benefit disproportionately from the financialization of the internet and the acceleration of the reflexive loop [4] Internet-Native Finance - Finance has become internet-native, driving the rise of perps, memes, and prediction markets [2][3] - The effects of reflexivity are becoming stronger [2]

Market Analysis - Crypto market sees a decent pullback on CCM coins [1] - Risk/reward ratio is currently favorable [1] - A new market has emerged, but Crypto Twitter (CT) is prematurely dismissing it after its first major pullback [1] Investment Strategy - Suggests studying reflexivity, implying a potential investment strategy based on market psychology and reactions [1]

Core Concepts - Reflexivity, where investors' beliefs shape the market and vice versa, and connectivity are crucial for understanding the future of finance, markets, and crypto [1] - The internet and social media have accelerated the reflexive loop by connecting information and people globally [2] - Crypto transforms information into value, further accelerating speculation [2] Investment Implications - Storytelling is increasingly important as money flows based on belief [2] - Awareness of the reflexive loop is crucial before making investments [2] Market Dynamics - Speculation is inherent and accelerating in markets [2] - Perps, prediction markets, and memecoins represent different forms of speculation on outcomes [2]

Financial Analysis - MSTR trades at 230% of Bitcoin NAV due to a reflexivity loop [1] - Capital is raised at a 67% premium to buy Bitcoin [1] - $21 billion raised resulted in $42 billion in holdings [1] Market Dynamics - Leveraged derivative trades outperform spot trading [1]

Market Dynamics & Competition - In a highly connected system, speed of spread dominates, making fundamentals less important [1] - Speed is a significant market force in finance, exemplified by high-frequency trading [1] - Increased speed accelerates competition, leading to faster displacement of market leaders [1] - Narratives are more important than fundamentals [2] Strategic Imperatives - Moving extremely fast while maintaining retention is crucial for sustained success [1] - Retention is achieved through a focus on fundamentals [1] - Speed matters more than ever, but it must be grounded in reality [1] - Fundamentals still matter [2]

Market Connectivity & Reflexivity - Crypto increases the connectivity of markets by turning information into value and vice versa [1] - Reflexivity becomes exponentially more prevalent due to increased market connectivity [1] - Prices become more detached from fundamentals, requiring constant reassessment and recorrection from market participants [1] Cycle Dynamics - The traditional concept of a cycle is likely obsolete [1] - Cycles are accelerating, potentially occurring weekly or even daily [1]

Market Dynamics - Memetic consensus around a high price target supercharges the run, leading to intense supply discipline [1] - Everyone hoards their coins, forcing buyers to be sloppy, further entrenching the idea price will keep going up [1] - Reflexivity is at its finest [1]