Reversion to the mean
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Stock Of The Day: Amgen Slips With Healthcare Sector, But Signals Point To A Reversal
Benzinga· 2025-05-15 19:25
Core Viewpoint - Amgen Inc. is experiencing a rise in stock price despite the overall healthcare sector being in a downtrend due to potential fraud issues at UnitedHealth Group, indicating a possible bottoming out for Amgen and a potential reversal in its stock price [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Amgen's shares are currently oversold, suggesting that they have been aggressively sold and are trading below their normal range, which may attract buyers [1][4]. - The Stochastics Momentum Indicator shows that the blue line is below the lower horizontal red line, confirming the oversold conditions [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Many trading strategies are based on the concept of reversion to the mean, where buyers anticipate a price reversal, potentially creating a self-fulfilling prophecy [5]. - Amgen's shares are approaching a potential support level, which could lead to increased buying activity [5]. Group 3: Historical Support Levels - The price level of $255.50 served as support in March 2023 and December 2024, indicating that previous support levels can become relevant again due to trader psychology [6]. - If the stock price drops back to this support level, it is likely that buy orders will be placed, creating renewed support at this price [7].
Stock Of The Day: AbbVie's Rally Looks Stretched — Could A Reversal Be Next?
Benzinga· 2025-04-29 15:12
Core Viewpoint - AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) is experiencing an upward trend in its stock price, gaining over 12% in the past week, but is now considered overbought, which may attract sellers and pressure the stock lower [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - AbbVie has been trading higher, with a notable increase of more than 12% in the past week [1]. - The stock is currently classified as overbought, indicating that it has moved above its normal trading range [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The concept of reversion to the mean suggests that an overbought stock like AbbVie may experience a downward movement, prompting some traders to sell in anticipation of this trend [2]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is highlighted as a popular momentum indicator, with a default time period of 14 days, which currently shows neutral momentum for AbbVie [2][4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - A 14-day RSI indicates that today's price is roughly the same as it was two weeks ago, not reflecting the recent rally [4]. - Adjusting the RSI time period from 14 to 5 days reveals that AbbVie shares are very overbought, suggesting a potential pause or end to the rally [5].