Just a few days uh remain before the government shuts down unless Democrats and Republicans can come to an agreement uh on federal funding. Joining us now, Wisconsin Republican Senator Ron Johnson. And um Senator, it's good to see.I don't know what before that guy wrote that book, A Perfect Storm. I don't know what we used to use. Um but we do use it now.And there are some people that think we're looking at something close to that. when you listen to Schumer or listen to Senator Schumer, listen to Democrats ...

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Economic Cycles - The economy functions like a machine, driven by short-term and long-term debt cycles [4] - Short-term debt cycles, typically lasting 5 to 8 years, are primarily controlled by the central bank through interest rate adjustments [5] - These cycles involve expansion fueled by credit, leading to inflation, followed by contraction (recession) when the central bank raises interest rates [1][2][3] - Long-term debt cycles occur because debts rise faster than incomes over decades, leading to a debt burden [6] - The ratio of debt to income is called the debt burden, which remains manageable as long as incomes rise [7] Debt and Credit - Spending increases are fueled by credit, which can be created instantly [1] - When credit is easily available, there's an economic expansion; when it's not, there's a recession [4] - Rising incomes and asset values help borrowers remain creditworthy for a long time, even with accumulating debt [8] - At some point, debt repayments grow faster than incomes, forcing people to cut back on spending, leading to a reversal of the cycle [9] - Debt burdens become too big, leading to deleveraging, as seen in 2008 in the United States and Europe [10][11] Inflation and Deflation - Inflation occurs when spending and incomes grow faster than the production of goods, causing prices to rise [1] - The central bank raises interest rates to combat inflation [2] - Deflation occurs when people spend less, causing prices to go down, leading to a recession [3] Human Behavior - People have an inclination to borrow and spend more instead of paying back debt, pushing the economy [5] - Lenders freely extend credit because everyone thinks things are going great, focusing on rising incomes and asset values [6] - People borrow huge amounts of money to buy assets as investments, causing their prices to rise even higher, creating a boom and potentially a bubble [8][7]

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Inflation Metrics - Personal income increased by 04% in July, aligning with expectations [1] - Spending rose by 05% in July, meeting expectations [2] - Real spending, adjusted for inflation, increased by 03%, matching expectations and marking the best performance since March [2] - Month-over-month PCE increased by 02%, consistent with May's level [3] - Year-over-year PCE stood at 26%, precisely as anticipated [3] - Core PCE year-over-year reached 29%, slightly higher than the previous month's 28% [4][5] Trade Balance and Inventories - The trade deficit came in at negative 103 billion, exceeding expectations of negative 902 billion, and approaching the record deficit of negative 161 billion from March [6] - Wholesale inventories increased by 02% in July (preliminary) [6] - Retail inventories also increased by 02% in July [6] Market Reaction - The 2-year Treasury yield decreased slightly from 364% to 363%, compared to last Friday's close of 370% [7] - The 10-year Treasury yield remained relatively stable at 421%, unchanged from yesterday's close but lower than last Friday's close of 426% [7]

Economic Principles - Productivity growth, driven by innovation and hard work, is the primary driver of rising living standards over time [1] - Credit's impact is more significant in the short term due to its ability to create economic swings, allowing consumption to exceed production temporarily [2] - Borrowing is essentially pulling spending forward, creating a future obligation to spend less than one earns to repay the debt, thus forming a cycle [5][6] Credit and Debt Dynamics - Credit differs from money; money settles transactions immediately, while credit creates an asset and a liability, representing a promise to pay in the future [7] - The total amount of credit in the United States is approximately $50 trillion, significantly exceeding the total amount of money, which is about $3 trillion [8] - Credit is beneficial when it finances productive investments that generate income to repay the debt, but detrimental when it funds overconsumption that cannot be sustained [10] Economic Cycles - Economic swings are primarily influenced by the availability of credit, not by fluctuations in innovation or hard work [4] - Borrowing sets in motion a predictable series of events, making understanding credit crucial for anticipating future economic outcomes [6] - An economy with credit experiences increased spending and faster income growth than productivity in the short run, but this is unsustainable in the long run [9] Example of Credit Amplification - An individual earning $100,000 annually can borrow $10,000, enabling them to spend $110,000, which in turn becomes another person's income [11][12]

How the economic machine works in 30 minutes. The economy works like a simple machine, but many people don't understand it or they don't agree on how it works. And this has led to a lot of needless economic suffering.I feel a deep sense of responsibility to share my simple but practical economic template. Though it's unconventional, it has helped me to anticipate and to sidestep the global financial crisis and it has worked well for me for over 30 years. Let's begin.Though the economy might seem complex, it ...

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Spending Trends - Having a child impacts spending habits of new parents across the country [1] Data Source - The company spoke with new parents from across the country to understand their spending changes [1]