Market Impact of Geopolitical Tensions - Oil prices are surging following strikes by Israel, with the market closely watching Iran's response [1] - The Strait of Hormuz is a key chokepoint, with Iran potentially disrupting a quarter of the world's oil supply [3] - JPMorgan simulations assign a 7% probability to a worst-case scenario of oil reaching $130 per barrel [6] Potential Disruptions and Risks - A worst-case scenario could see oil prices rise to $120 per barrel due to Strait of Hormuz closure [4] - Lower-level actions by Iran, such as harassing shipping, could increase shipping rates and cause tanker shortages [4] - Traders are buying call options to protect against potential escalation [5] Iranian Oil Supply - Sanctions could be reimposed, potentially removing Iranian barrels from the market [8] - The market needs to prepare for the possibility of Iranian barrels being removed from the market, even without military action [9]

Market Reaction to Geopolitical Events - Initial reports of no damage to Iranian oil infrastructure led to a price correction after Brent crude prices initially spiked by 13%, settling at a 7% increase [1] - The market is closely monitoring the potential impact on Iran's oil production, export capabilities, storage, and refining capacity [2] - The market is sensitive to the possibility of a larger conflict involving the Strait of Hormuz, despite the difficulties and potential detriment to Iran [3][4] - Potential self-sanctioning by ship owners avoiding the region due to prolonged conflict could reduce oil and gas supply [5] - The market is in a wait-and-see mode, closely observing Iran's response to the Israeli attack and Israel's subsequent actions [6] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The oil market is currently considered frothy and oversupplied, providing a buffer against potential supply disruptions [9] - Brent crude prices had risen to $78, after being at $60 at the beginning of May due to concerns about the trade war impacting demand [10] - Weaker oil demand, influenced by trade war concerns and lagging Chinese industrial output, mitigates the immediate impact of potential supply reductions [10][11] - Despite the oversupplied market, the potential disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, though a remote possibility, is causing price gains [12] Geopolitical Developments - Reports indicate a large-scale Israeli attack involving over 200 Air Force planes targeting 100 Iranian nuclear and missile facilities [7][8] - Iran's response includes a statement emphasizing the necessity of nuclear enrichment [7][8]