Market Analysis & Predictions - Bitcoin is in a healthy uptrend, supported by a previous resistance-turned-support level on the daily chart [1] - A cup-and-handle pattern suggests potential further upward movement, targeting a previous high around the 0.080618 level [1] - The analyst uses New Moon and Full Moon cycles as a "mystical" indicator, noting past correlations with market movements and suggesting watching for potential highs around the next New Moon in 10 days [1] - Historical patterns of Bitcoin halving events suggest a potential peak around 520-540 days after the most recent halving in April 2024 [1] - The analyst expresses a neutral stance, viewing market volatility as an opportunity and suggesting potential shorting opportunities if Bitcoin reaches certain levels and exhibits specific price action [1][2] Trading Strategies & Risk Management - The analyst advises against blindly placing limit orders, instead recommending waiting for a breakout and pullback before entering a short position with a stop-loss above the high [2] - For Ethereum, the analyst suggests that if Bitcoin rallies, Ethereum is likely to follow, targeting a specific level; if both reach potential highs, any pullback could be a shorting opportunity [2] - The analyst mentions Bybit and Binance exchanges, highlighting potential fee discounts for users [2] Contrarian View & Long-Term Belief - The analyst acknowledges the "eternal bull market" narrative but cautions against complacency, emphasizing the importance of profiting from potential downturns [1] - The analyst believes Bitcoin will eventually reach $1 million USD, but is more concerned with how to profit during potential pullbacks [1]

Market Analysis - The analysis suggests Bitcoin might be breaking out of a consolidation phase on the daily chart, after a prolonged period of sideways movement with parallel highs and lows [1] - A cup and handle pattern appears to be forming, with the handle coinciding with a full moon cycle, which the analyst considers significant despite skepticism from some [1] - The analyst suggests that if Bitcoin holds above the previous high, it could signal the start of a rally; however, a drop below this level could indicate a false breakout and a potential shorting opportunity [1] - On the hourly chart, Bitcoin has surpassed a previous resistance level, potentially turning it into support; a sustained position above this level could lead to rapid gains [1] - Despite price increases, there's evidence of short positions increasing, suggesting potential buying pressure from spot markets aiming to push prices higher [1] - The analyst suggests a long position with a stop-loss below the current level, targeting a 066%-068% increase, around $120,000, while being cautious about setting targets too high due to a potential market structure shift [1] - A break below the parallel highs would signal a clear shorting opportunity, potentially targeting a $5,000-$6,000 drop [1] - Ethereum is showing signs of support and a potential rebound, but its movement is contingent on Bitcoin's performance, particularly whether Bitcoin can maintain its position above the parallel highs [1] Trading Strategy - Consider a long position with a stop-loss below the current level, targeting a 066%-068% increase, around $120,000 [1] - If Bitcoin fails to hold above the previous high, consider a short position targeting a $5,000-$6,000 drop [1] Risk Management - A drop below the previous high could indicate a false breakout and a potential shorting opportunity [1] - Be cautious about setting targets too high due to a potential market structure shift [1]

Market Trends & Analysis - The market is experiencing a persistent uptrend with major averages hovering near all-time highs, and a breakout in June fostered additional upside momentum [1][2] - Technical analysis suggests a price objective of approximately 6880 with a timeframe of 2026 for the S&P 500, with support around 6130 [2] - The 20-day moving average is pointing higher for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, advising clients to stay invested as long as this trend continues [12][13] - August and September typically carry seasonal headwinds and volatility [11] - October tends to carry volatility but also major lows, potentially offering a reset for Q4 [13][15] Oil & Energy Sector - Crude oil showed an oversold indication on the monthly chart around April-May lows, but needs to break above resistance in the mid $70s to reverse the downtrend [5] - The energy sector continues to underperform [5] Yield Curve & Interest Rates - The yield curve is considered important, especially with events like Jackson Hole, employment reports, CPI, and PPI, but remains at the low end of the range [6] - A neutral bias on yields has been maintained for most of the year [7] - Peaks in the fed funds rate tend to be associated with peaks in the S&P 500 [8] Bitcoin Analysis - Bitcoin is currently in a consolidation phase with a neutral short-term bias, having broken out above former resistance at approximately 108,000 [19] - Bitcoin has support around 111,000 and a potential objective of approximately 134,000 to 135,000 based on the breakout [19]

Trading Strategy & Analysis - The trader aims for over $8,000 profit by increasing risk per trade, utilizing technical analysis, trend direction, critical levels, and fair value gaps [3][6][7] - Risk management involves containing risk, letting winners run, reducing risk to break even, and taking profits along the way, targeting a 1 to 2 risk-reward ratio [8][13][14] - The trader uses a combination of trend analysis, fair value gaps, and Elliot wave analysis to identify high-probability trading areas [6][7][34][35] Trade Execution & Journaling - The trader documents live trading sessions on YouTube, providing insights into the trading team's strategies and mindset [2][1] - A trading journal is used to log information, track data, and monitor the step-by-step progression of each trading session [4] - The trader adjusts stop-loss orders and takes partial profits to manage risk and secure gains during volatile market conditions [13][15][43] Market Observation & Adaptation - Economic news and calendar events are monitored to anticipate market movements, but the trader focuses on intraday setups [5] - The trader emphasizes the importance of adapting to market volatility and avoiding psychological biases, sticking to a pre-defined trading plan [24][25][30] - The trader acknowledges that losses are part of trading and focuses on maintaining a high win rate and maximizing profits on winning trades [24][25][89] Performance & Goal - The trader aims to achieve a daily profit goal, adjusting risk and strategy based on market conditions and trade outcomes [3][38][65] - The trader achieved approximately $11,000 in profit, with a 55% win rate, demonstrating the potential of the strategy despite frequent losses [89][90] - The trader reviews and analyzes trading data to identify areas for improvement and refine the trading strategy [77][90]

Core Viewpoint - PepsiCo, Inc. shares experienced a decline after a significant gain driven by an earnings surprise, indicating potential downward movement due to overbought conditions and resistance levels [1][6]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - Second-quarter earnings for PepsiCo were reported at $2.12, surpassing the estimated $2.02 [1]. Group 2: Price Levels and Market Psychology - The stock has encountered a significant resistance level at $144.50, which previously served as a support level in March before becoming resistance in April [3][4]. - Investor psychology plays a crucial role, as those who bought at the support level may have regretted their decision when the price fell, leading to sell orders when the stock returned to the resistance level [5][6]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The stock is currently considered overbought, with its price two standard deviations above the 20-day moving average, which typically attracts sellers anticipating a price correction [6][7]. - Stocks that are overbought and at resistance levels often reverse and enter downtrends, suggesting a potential decline for PepsiCo [7].