The U.S. economy is still stuck in its low hiring, low firing rut according to the Federal Reserve's anecdotal Beige Book report. https://t.co/O2mkRVLMtJ ...

Economic Outlook - U S economic growth may exceed expectations based on pre-shutdown data [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy has not yet been significantly impacted by increased tariffs or reduced labor supply due to stricter immigration policies, but potential changes may occur in the future [1] Economic Impact - The current state of the U.S. economy remains resilient despite challenges posed by tariff increases and labor supply constraints [1] - Future implications of these economic factors could lead to changes in the overall economic landscape [1]

Core Functions of the Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve System performs five key functions [1] - These functions serve all Americans [1] - The functions promote the health and stability of the U S economy and financial system [1] Financial System Stability - The Federal Reserve promotes financial system stability [1] - More information is available at the provided link [1]

Core Insights - CFOs have shown a significant increase in optimism regarding the U.S. economy, with 51% expressing confidence, up from 39% in the previous quarter [1][3]. Group 1: CFO Optimism Trends - The optimism level among CFOs had previously declined sharply this year, peaking at 68% in Q4 2024 before falling due to tariff announcements by the Trump Administration [3]. - Recent survey results indicate a recovery in confidence, with notable increases in various areas such as supply chain needs, cost control, and technology objectives [4][5]. Group 2: Confidence Metrics - 57% of CFOs reported confidence in meeting supply chain needs, a rise of 20 percentage points from Q2 [5]. - Confidence in cost control increased by 13 points to 50%, while confidence in achieving technology objectives rose by 14 points to 66% [5]. Group 3: Future Concerns - Despite the increase in optimism, 45% of CFOs foresee potential layoffs in the next six months, indicating ongoing concerns about economic turbulence [6]. - The survey also highlighted the impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, with only 54% of CFOs confident that their tax function understands its benefits [7].

Geopolitical Developments & Market Impact - A 20-point proposal for a Gaza ceasefire, agreed upon by U S President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, awaits Hamas approval, potentially impacting regional stability and oil markets [1][5][38] - Qatar's role as a key mediator between Israel and Hamas is crucial for the ceasefire, requiring a face-saving gesture, such as Israel expressing regret for a past attack [8][9][10] - The Israeli Shekel has strengthened against the USD by approximately 10% this year, reflecting the impact of geopolitical developments on local markets [46] - RBA (澳大利亚储备银行) holds cash rate at 36%, notes uncertainties in global environment and upside risks to inflation [40][41][42][43] Economic & Financial Market Trends - Looming U S government shutdown raises market risk, potentially delaying crucial jobs data release and impacting monetary policy assessment [2][3][23][25][44] - Gold hits record highs, massively outperforming Bitcoin, driven by uncertainty and a pullback in USD, with potential for further gains amid Fed rate cuts [3][4][23][32][33][44] - The market has aggressively priced in 3-4 rate cuts by June 2026, making upcoming jobs market data pivotal for determining monetary policy [27] - Potential tariffs on imports of timber and lumber, particularly impacting Canada, add to market uncertainty [23][39] - MSCI China is logging five-month gains, the longest streak since 2018, driven by better-than-expected PMI data and geopolitical signals [48] Energy Sector - Brent crude oil is slipping down by 08% ahead of the OPEC Plus meeting, where increased supply is expected [4] - The oil market is bearish due to well-supplied conditions, with focus on Iran snapback and Russia-Ukraine conflict, leading to investment in gold over oil [52][53] - Afentra is cautious about oil price volatility, focusing on a strong balance sheet and strategic acquisitions [64][65][66] - Nigeria's government intervenes to resolve a clash between the petroleum and natural gas association and oil labor group, potentially impacting crude production of 650 thousand barrels a day [76][77][78]

Economic Concerns - The US economy is facing challenges primarily due to tariffs, which are leading to higher consumer prices, increased input costs for businesses, and reduced profit margins [1] - A highly restrictive immigration policy is negatively impacting various industries that rely on immigrant labor, including construction, agriculture, manufacturing, transportation, distribution, retailing, leisure, and hospitality [2] Federal Reserve Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for a well-functioning economy and financial system; any loss of this independence could lead to future issues such as higher inflation and interest rates [3]

Core Viewpoint - Despite high tariffs, persistent inflation, and challenges in job searching, consumer spending in the U.S. has increased in August, contributing positively to the economy [1] Group 1 - Consumer spending has shown resilience, indicating that Americans are continuing to spend despite economic pressures [1] - The increase in spending is crucial for maintaining economic momentum in the U.S. [1]

RT unusual_whales (@unusual_whales)"Ray Dalio says ‘most people are silent’ because they’re afraid to talk about what’s really happening with the U.S. economy," per FORTUNE ...

Core Insights - Student loan borrowers are reducing discretionary spending to manage loan repayments, with many successfully handling their loans, but an increasing number are facing difficulties [2][5][6] Spending Adjustments - The typical student loan borrower has reduced their weekly spending by approximately $12.20 for every $10,000 of student debt, leading to an annual spending cut of about $1,590 for the median borrower with a $25,000 balance [3][4][9] Borrower Status - Out of 18.8 million borrowers in repayment, nearly 13 million are in good standing, while about 25% expect to pay off their debt by next year [6][9] - Over 4 million borrowers are nearing default, a figure that is more than eight times the pre-pandemic delinquency rate [7] Economic Context - Borrowers are facing challenges due to rising prices from tariffs and a slowing labor market, complicating their ability to budget for loan payments [8]