Market Overview & Economic Commentary - The market exhibits investor exuberance, potentially indicating overvalued or fully valued assets [4] - Deregulation and the ability to execute deals are expected to stimulate the economy [3][9] - The depreciation on capital expenditures is a significant economic driver [10] - October is anticipated to be a challenging month for the overall market [8] Banking Sector Analysis - JP Morgan's stock is considered expensive, while Wells Fargo is undergoing a rerating as it emerges from a penalty box [1] - Citigroup is viewed as undervalued compared to its peers, reaching a target range of $102-105 [1] - Goldman Sachs has achieved its most profitable year ever, signaling a positive environment for the economy [6] - Financing activity is increasing, including the largest leveraged buyout (LBO) ever, and banks are eager to finance AI buildout [5][6] CEO Sentiment & Future Outlook - Bank CEOs express optimism, particularly regarding M&A activity [7] - Goldman Sachs believes it can strategically accomplish objectives in the current environment [5] - The core M&A business is thriving, indicating active deal-making [7] - The job market's stagnant nature, characterized by low hiring and firing rates, poses a potential downside risk [9]

Economic Outlook - Trump's advisers are presenting a positive economic outlook for next year, despite potentially unreliable economic data [1]

On this episode of the Big Take podcast, @MollySmithNews and @gregorykorte join @davidgura to talk about what the US government shutdown means for economic data — and the policymakers, investors and institutions who rely on it https://t.co/b9hHfUuhMC https://t.co/C1K0Buuj8u ...

Market Impact of Government Shutdown - The market has historically performed reasonably well during government shutdowns [2] - Current market strength is attributed to AI excitement, global rallies, and certainty about interest rates [3][4] - Equity investors may not have the longest attention span, focusing on immediate impacts like the potential for an October Fed rate cut [23] - The equity market is currently placid about the government shutdown, caught up in its own preoccupations [25] Economic Data and Analysis - Government shutdown leads to upgrading the priority and significance of available non-government data [6] - There's a risk associated with relying on non-government data, which may not be as reliable as government data [8] - Economists are focusing on broader themes rather than specific monthly numbers due to data uncertainty [15] - The economic data is deferred, not derailed, but the shutdown highlights changes in the economic profession [17] Debt and Deficits - The US has $375 trillion in debt, a $2 trillion budget deficit, and over $1 trillion a year to service the debt [9] - The government shutdown is fundamentally about spending more money than the country has [10] Impact on Employment - A general rule of thumb is a 01 percentage point impact on the economy for each week of the shutdown [19] - If the shutdown extends beyond October 17th, there could be a significant impact on the October unemployment rate, potentially as high as 48% [19] - The US needs to create 40000 jobs to keep the unemployment rate stable [29]

On this episode of the Big Take podcast, @MollySmithNews and @gregorykorte join @davidgura to talk about what the US government shutdown means for economic data — and the policymakers, investors and institutions who rely on it https://t.co/b9hHfUuhMC https://t.co/hsEVGKEJDN ...

On this episode of the Big Take podcast, @MollySmithNews and @gregorykorte join @davidgura to talk about what the US government shutdown means for economic data — and the policymakers, investors and institutions who rely on it https://t.co/b9hHfUuhMC https://t.co/zaHii8CWYA ...

On today’s Big Take podcast, @MollySmithNews and @gregorykorte join @davidgura to talk about what the US government shutdown means for economic data — and the policymakers, investors and institutions who rely on it. https://t.co/AnzLcmXl8C ...

💥BREAKING:🇺🇸 Bureau of Labor Statistics says it will not release economic data including the jobs report on Friday, if US government shuts down. ...

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 BLS will not release economic data in the case of a U.S. government shutdown.Shutdown odds have soared to a new all-time high this morning 🚨 ...

Interest Rate Policy - The Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by 0.25% [1] - The rate cut aims to stimulate the stock market and reduce borrowing costs [2] - The Fed's decision is primarily influenced by signs of a slowing US economy, not political pressure [3] Key Personnel - Steven Mirren, appointed by the president, favored even larger rate cuts [1] - Two Fed governors appointed in the president's first term agreed with the 0.25% cut [2] - Jay Powell's press conference indicated that his decisions are based on economic data [3] Economic Outlook - Economic data suggests a slowdown in the US economy [3]