Economic Outlook - High youth unemployment in China suggests a challenging economic environment [1] - A property slump in China indicates potential financial instability [1] - The situation is likely to worsen for millions of people in China due to these factors [1]

Monetary Policy Outlook - The World Bank anticipates Thailand's monetary policy to become "more accommodative" in the current year [1] Economic Uncertainty - Mounting external and domestic uncertainty are factors influencing the expected monetary policy shift [1]

Monetary Policy Stance - The ECB believes it is near its target after hiking rates ten times and lowering them eight times, but should not be complacent [2] - The ECB is taking a meeting-to-meeting, data-dependent approach due to uncertainty [4] - The ECB considers the current interest rate level to be in neutral territory, around 2% [5][6] - A rate cut would be stimulative [4] Economic Outlook & Risks - Volatility in energy markets indicates a need for caution [3][8] - Trade frontloading may have contributed to good numbers in the first quarter [12] - Uncertainty surrounding trade and tariffs could negatively impact the European economic outlook [15] - The European economy is in a fragile situation, making it vulnerable to uncertainty [16][17] Euro's Role & Stability - The current price level of the euro against the dollar is close to the long-term mean [9] - The ECB is not overly focused on the exchange rate, but considers it as one factor among many affecting inflation [10][11] - Strengthening the capital market union and banking union is crucial to making the euro more attractive to international investors [23][25] - A more relevant euro could contribute to a stable global environment alongside the US dollar [26]

Economic Outlook - The economic outlook has brightened a bit, but it's not as rosy as the market looks [1] - Most forecasts still see tariff effects weakening growth and driving inflation higher [2] - The average of 15 forecasts on the street in the CNBC rapid update up almost a percentage point for the second quarter to 25% from 16% in April [2] - The overall year outlook is 13% [3] Inflation and Fed Policy - Average core PCE inflation also came down for the second quarter with what looks to be an expectation of a delayed tariff impact, but it's forecast to shoot up in the third and fourth quarters back towards 3% before settling down next year [4] - Inflation remains a percentage point above and it fuels this debate about whether the Fed should cut now or hold till those numbers start to come down [5] - The Fed's dilemma is weaker growth, but inflation remains relatively high [10] - If the Fed can feel confident that inflation will come down, they could maybe cut a little bit in the back half of this year [11] Tariff Impact - There have been markdowns in the earnings outlook for tariff affected companies [9] - The idea being when you put up GDP numbers that are weaker towards 1%, the theory is that something's got to give in terms of tariffs [8] - It looks like the tariff impact will be a little less, and if we get out of this with a couple quarters of weaker growth, that would be getting off cheap [9]

- Incoming data suggests that the economy remains solid. Following growth of 2.5% last year, GDP was reported to have edged down in the first quarter, reflecting swings in net exports that were driven by businesses bringing in imports ahead of potential tariffs. Surveys of households and businesses, however, reported decline in settlement sentiment in recent months, and elevated uncertainty about the economic outlook, largely reflecting trade policy concerns.It remains to be seen how these developments migh ...

Nick Tamros of the Wall Street Journal. Uh, Cher Pal, I guess I'm wondering if you could explain a little bit more the divergence we see in the dot plot, particularly around the 2025 rate projections. I realize this is uh, you know, you have one group of officials that are putting down no cuts, another that are putting down more than one.Um, and again recognizing that could be difficult to summarize, but is it a matter of people having a different outlook or a different reaction function, a different commit ...

It could be a pressure cooker of a summer for the US economy, and not because of the warmer weather. Tariffs from the Trump administration don’t appear to be going anywhere anytime soon, forcing businesses to raise prices on consumers and delay key projects. At the same time, the Federal Reserve is in no hurry to cut interest rates amid stagflation fears. Economic data has also begun to weaken, with the latest evidence being the employment readings from the last three months. Yahoo Finance executive editor ...

M Global Insight May 20, 2025 06:00 PM GMT Global Economics Mid-Year Outlook Skewed to the Downside Global growth steps down by a percentage point from 2024. US trade policy and the uncertainty it engenders are the main drivers. Central banks have to confront the slowing, but the Fed must wait until inflation ebbs. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could aff ...

市场影响与未来展望 当地时间5月7日，欧洲债券市场收益率普遍下跌，显示出市场对欧洲经济前景的担忧以及对货币政策的预 期变化。英国10年期国债收益率跌5.5个基点报4.456%，法国10年期国债收益率跌6.4个基点报3.192%，德 国10年期国债收益率跌6.6个基点报2.472%，意大利10年期国债收益率跌7.9个基点报3.546%，西班牙10年 期国债收益率跌6.3个基点报3.127%。这一现象引发了市场的广泛关注，特别是在当前全球经济形势不确定 的背景下，欧洲债券市场的表现对投资者和政策制定者都具有重要意义。 欧债收益率普跌的原因 1. 经济前景的不确定性 欧洲债券收益率的普遍下跌反映了市场对欧洲经济前景的担忧。尽管欧洲经济在逐步复苏，但全球经济形 势的不确定性，特别是贸易政策的变化和地缘政治风险，增加了市场的波动性。投资者对经济增长的可持 续性表示担忧，从而增加了对债券的需求，推动收益率下降。 2. 货币政策的预期变化 市场对欧洲央行货币政策的预期变化也影响了债券收益率。尽管欧洲央行尚未明确表示将调整货币政策， 但市场预期其可能在未来逐步放松货币政策，以应对经济增长的放缓。这种预期导致投资者调整投资组 ...