Small deep value individual investor, with a modest private investment portfolio, split approx. 50%-50% between shares and call options. I have a B.Sc. in aeronautical engineering and over 6 years of experience as an engineering consultant in the aerospace sector. The latter statement is not relevant in any way whatsoever to my investment style, but I thought to add it for self-indulgent purposes. I have a contrarian investment style, highly risky, and often dealing with illiquid options. How illiquid? Well ...

Market Overview - The exchange-traded funds tracking the S&P 500 index (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are trading below their long-term averages amid ongoing market volatility, influenced by President Trump's tariff announcements [1][2]. SPY Analysis - As of Wednesday's close, SPY's price was below its 20, 50, and 200-day simple moving averages, indicating a bearish trend [2]. - SPY experienced pressure for 10 trading days after slipping below its 200-day average on March 10, but managed to recover briefly before declining again [2]. - The relative strength index (RSI) for SPY was neutral at 44.86, while the MACD line was negative at -6.37, though it showed signs of approaching the signal line with a positive histogram of 1.78, suggesting potential bullish momentum within a bearish trend [3]. QQQ Analysis - QQQ's price was also below its 20, 50, and 200-day simple moving averages as of Wednesday's close, marking 16 sessions below its long-term average since March 5 [4]. - The RSI for QQQ was neutral at 44.28, and the MACD indicator was negative at -7.58, with a positive histogram value of 2.13, indicating a similar bullish sign within a bearish trend [5]. Tariff Impact - President Trump announced a 25% tariff on auto imports, which he claims will spur growth, despite the expected economic costs associated with tariffs [6][8]. - Scott Wren, a senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo, noted that while tariffs will have economic costs, their negative effects can be mitigated through company and consumer actions, such as diversifying supply chains and adapting consumer behavior [7][8]. - Companies have already begun raising prices due to tariff impacts, but often less than the full tariff rate, indicating that high corporate profit margins may allow for some absorption of price increases [7]. Price Action - On Wednesday, SPY declined by 1.19% to $568.59, while QQQ dropped by 1.84% to $484.38 [8].

Core Viewpoint - The individual investor adopts a contrarian investment style, focusing on deep value opportunities, particularly in stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, while also considering insider buying as a positive signal [1] Investment Strategy - The investment portfolio is split approximately 50%-50% between shares and call options, indicating a balanced approach to risk and potential returns [1] - The investor's timeframe for holding positions typically ranges from 3 to 24 months, suggesting a medium-term investment horizon [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, including their leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] Stock Selection Criteria - The investor screens for stocks that have undergone recent sell-offs, particularly those with insider buying at lower prices, which may indicate potential recovery [1] - Professional background checks are conducted on insiders who purchase shares post-sell-off, adding a layer of due diligence to the investment process [1] Technical Analysis - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, with a focus on support and resistance levels on weekly charts, employing multicolor lines for clarity [1] - Trend lines are drawn in multicolor patterns to assist in visualizing market movements and potential price actions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has faced a challenging start to 2024, with an 18% decline in stock price year-to-date, despite reporting strong earnings and revenue growth in Q4 and FY 2024 [1][2] Financial Performance - AMD's data center revenue increased by 69% year-over-year to $3.86 billion, but it significantly lags behind Nvidia, which reported a 93% growth to $35.6 billion in the same segment [2] - Client revenue rose by 58% year-over-year, driven by demand for AMD Ryzen processors, while gaming revenue fell by 59% and embedded processor sales decreased by 13% [3] Market Sentiment - Despite the recent stock pullback, Wall Street analysts remain optimistic, viewing the current dip as a potential buying opportunity [4] - Technical analysts have identified a bullish setup for AMD, projecting a rebound towards $320 in the next uptrend [5] Technical Analysis - AMD's stock has been in a downtrend for one year, trading below its 200-week moving average, indicating a strong long-term buying opportunity [6][7] - The stock is currently hovering just above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, with the 0.786 level slightly lower, suggesting potential for a price rebound [8] - The one-week RSI is nearing oversold levels, which historically aligns with significant reversal points, indicating a favorable risk-to-reward setup for investors [9]

Despite a positive Q4 FY 2025 earnings report on February 26, Nvidia stock (NASDAQ: NVDA) is still on a rather steep downward trajectory as of the first week of March.Although analysts reacted positively to the quarterly results, NVDA shares ended February below the 200-day moving average (MA). The last time this bearish signal occurred was January 2023.In addition, on Monday, March 3, President Trump announced that the tariffs he announced on February 1 would come into effect a day later. China immediately ...

Investment Philosophy - Warren Buffett's success is attributed to his partnership with Charlie Munger, who provided wisdom and investment knowledge until his passing in November 2023 at age 99 [1] - Munger emphasized the importance of buying high-quality stocks at fair prices rather than merely seeking cheap valuations, influencing Buffett's investment strategy [5][22] Technical Analysis - Munger's quote suggests that Buffett and Munger utilized long-term technical analysis, specifically the 200-week moving average, to enhance their investment decisions [4] - The 200-week moving average has proven to be a significant indicator for stock performance, with examples like Apple (AAPL) demonstrating its effectiveness over time [7][10] Stock Selection Criteria - Investors are encouraged to focus on institutional quality stocks, which are driven by institutional investors, and to prioritize companies with healthy fundamentals and strong cash positions [6][8] - The article highlights several companies that exemplify successful investment strategies based on the 200-week moving average, including Apple, Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and MicroStrategy (MSTR) [11][13][15] Current Market Opportunities - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is identified as a potential investment opportunity due to its recent pullback to the 200-week moving average, despite strong fundamentals [17][18] - AMD's valuation is attractive from a price-to-book perspective, indicating potential for significant upward movement [21]