Oil prices spiking following Israel's strike on Iran, adding an inflationary input ahead of the Fed's meeting next week. Meanwhile, we just got a positive signal from the data. An early read on Michigan consumer sentiment for June coming in well above expectations.Also, inflation expectations fell. Joining us is former Dallas Fed President and CNBC contributor Richard Fiser. So Richard, is is it your view that this is just going to make the Fed even more patient on its stance to do anything because it has t ...

Closer look at the markets here and reaction to the geopolitical news overnight. S&P's down 610 of 1%. Scott Croner joins us, Cityroup US equity strategist.He's here at Post 9. He raised his year-end S&P target to 6,300 this week from 5800. So kind of catching up with the market here, I guess, as we continue to make new highs, although a step back today.Does this how do you think that what happened overnight impacts the US equity market if at all. Yeah, Sarah. So, I I the way we've been talking about it is ...

Market Volatility & Investment Strategy - The market has shown resilience with a V-shaped recovery, and investors should embrace volatility as it favors long-term value buyers [1] - Despite major market averages being in the black for the year, many individual stocks, especially in the Russell 2000, are still down significantly, presenting value opportunities [4] - Stock picking is expected to outperform buying indexes, offering better sleep-at-night valuations and generous dividend yields [11] Undervalued Sectors & Stocks - The energy sector, particularly Sevitas Resources, is attractive due to being hit hard, offering a big dividend yield and low PE ratio while remaining profitable [5][6] - Pharmaceutical companies like Merc are viewed as high quality, trading at a PE around 11 with a 4% dividend yield, lower than its historical valuation [6] - Whirlpool, the appliance maker, offers a yield over 7% with a PE in the 9-10 range, anticipating support from lower interest rates later in the year [8] - Target, the discount retailer, has a low valuation relative to its history and a dividend yield pushing 5% [8][9] - UPS, the package shipping company, aligns with the theme of low valuations and generous dividend yields [9] Economic Outlook & Fed Policy - Good news rate cuts are anticipated throughout the year, although immediate cuts are unlikely due to tariff uncertainties and high inflation expectations [12][13] - Historically, stocks have performed well regardless of Fed tightening or easing, rising or falling interest rates, or high or low inflation [14] - Value stocks have historically lost only a couple percent on average during recessions, with spectacular returns of 30-40% coming out of recessions [15][16] Portfolio Valuation - The portfolio's forward earnings trade at 14 times, compared to the S&P 500's 23 times forward earnings [10] - The portfolio's overall dividend yield is 250 basis points (25%) versus 130 basis points (13%) for the S&P 500 [10]

Bitcoin's longest ever streak above $100,000 now extending to 31 days. The streak comes as the Senate voted Wednesday to advance stable coin legislation and Treasury Secretary Scott Besson saying he sees a potential $2 trillion market for stable coins. Joining us now in studio, we've got Andy Bear, who is the managing director at Coindesk Indices.Okay, so a lot to dive in on here. Yes. But first, just the significance of us remaining above this psychological but key milestone of 100,000 and that marker for ...

Market & Economic Outlook - The market is experiencing significant uncertainty, requiring careful consideration and diversification [3][4] - Volatility presents opportunities for investors [4] - Companies are currently hesitant to invest, holding back on capital expenditure [5] - A global nationalism is emerging due to people feeling left behind [14] AI & Technological Disruption - The speaker is bullish on AI and anticipates significant productivity gains by 2026 for those who leverage it effectively [6][7] - AI's rapid development raises concerns about potential job displacement [7] - AI's potential for misuse, including self-replication and blackmail, highlights the need for caution [8][9] - Training is crucial to equip employees with the skills to utilize AI effectively [13] American Competitiveness - The US still maintains American exceptionalism due to factors like regulation, labor laws, and capital markets [16] - The US attracts entrepreneurs with great ideas due to its favorable environment [15] - The dollar's position as a reserve currency is being chipped away, but there are limited alternatives [16][17]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期 steels CI生量中 =: F0251925 2025/6/12 数据来源: Wind,国贸期货研究院 | | 行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘价 | | 张肤帽(%) | | 成交覆(亿元) | | 成交里(亿) | | | 上证50 | 2692. 1365 | | 0. 59 | | 665. 28 | | 35. 57 | | | 沪深300 | 3894. 6252 | | 0. 75 | | 2572. 18 | | 142. 41 | | | 中证1000 | 6186. 5122 | | 0. 40 | | 2436. 71 | | 197.64 | | | | 中金所股指期权成交情况 | | | | | | | | | 指数 | 期权成交里 | 认购期权 | 认法期权 | 日成交里 | 期权持仓里 | 认购期权 | 认沽期权 | 持仓里 | | | (万张) | 成交里 | 成交里 | PC ...

Core Viewpoint - Chewy Inc's stock has experienced a downgrade from "buy" to "hold" by Jefferies, despite an increase in the price target from $41 to $43, primarily due to valuation concerns [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Chewy's stock is down 2.8% in pre-market trading [1] - The stock has increased by 113% over the last 12 months and 41.2% year-to-date [1] - The stock reached a two-year high of $47.55 on June 3 [1] - The 10-day moving average has served as a reliable support level during recent pullbacks [1] Group 2: Analyst Sentiment - A majority of analysts remain positive, with 20 out of 28 covering firms maintaining a "buy" or better rating [2] - There is potential for sentiment to shift if momentum fades [2] - Short interest has decreased by 17.2% in the last two weeks, with 7.8% of the float sold short, which could support future gains [2] Group 3: Options Market - Options are currently pricing in relatively low volatility, with Chewy's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) at 65%, placing it in the 29th percentile of its annual range [2] - This suggests that options premiums are affordable [2]

Core Insights - The article discusses the anticipated decline in book value for mortgage REITs during Q1 2025, indicating a negative trend in the sector [1][4][6] - Two Harbors is highlighted as a significant underperformer among agency mortgage REITs, facing legal challenges that could further impact its book value [4][5] - The overall volatility in the mortgage REIT market is contributing to the decline in book values, with most companies projected to see decreases ranging from 1.4% to 14.5% [6][7] Mortgage REITs - The article notes that volatility in the market, including tariff issues and bond market fluctuations, is detrimental to mortgage REITs [6] - Most mortgage REITs are expected to experience declines in book value per share, with only one REIT estimated to have a slight increase of less than 1% [7] - ARMOUR Residential REIT is mentioned as one of the larger projected losers in terms of book value [8] Business Development Companies (BDCs) - In contrast to mortgage REITs, BDCs are showing more stability in book value, with gains of about 1% for the top performers and declines of around 2% for the worst performers [9] Legal and Management Issues - Two Harbors' management faced criticism for their performance during the pandemic, leading to a legal battle that may result in significant financial losses for shareholders [4][5] - The potential legal loss for Two Harbors could allow the former external manager to collect approximately $140 million, raising concerns about corporate governance and accountability [4][5] Investment Strategy - The article emphasizes a preference for lower-risk shares due to the current volatility in the market, suggesting a cautious approach to investment in mortgage REITs [10]

Core Viewpoint - Cheniere Energy (LNG) is experiencing a decline in stock price due to poor natural gas performance, with prices down approximately 2% and inventories exceeding estimates [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - LNG is currently trading at $227.58, down 0.8%, and is facing a potential fifth consecutive daily drop [1][2]. - The stock has previously recovered from a low of $190 in April but is struggling again this week [2]. - Historical data indicates that LNG has approached its 50-day moving average trendline five times in the past three years, with an 80% success rate of stock price increases averaging 2.4% within five trading days following those signals [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The natural gas sector has seen a smaller-than-expected decline in output and gas flows, contributing to the current market conditions [1]. - Options for LNG are currently considered affordable, with a Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 29%, ranking in the 20th percentile of its annual range, indicating low volatility expectations among options traders [3].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed sentiment on equities, with a notable improvement compared to previous bearish views, but still reflects uncertainty in the market [2][6]. Core Insights - Following the US-China trade truce, investors have significantly adjusted their recession expectations, with nearly 60% now assigning a 30% or lower probability of a recession occurring within the next 12 months, a stark contrast to the previous month where nearly half expected a 50% or higher probability [4][6]. - Despite improved sentiment, volatility is anticipated to remain elevated throughout the year, with 60% of respondents expecting the VIX index to reach 30 or higher by year-end [3][13]. - A majority of investors (70%) expect the S&P 500 to end the year above 5,800, a significant increase from only 25% who held this view last month [6]. Summary by Sections Market Sentiment - Risk sentiment has improved on the margin, but investors still expect more bouts of elevated volatility this year [2][13]. - 48% of respondents now expect the Fed funds rate to end the year above 3.75%, up from 31% last month [17][20]. Equities Outlook - The current sentiment on equities is mixed, with 36% bullish and 30% bearish [6]. - The S&P 500 is currently at 5,896, with expectations for year-end values significantly higher than previous estimates [8]. Interest Rates - Investors expect the next Fed rate cut to occur in September, with a slight bull steepening anticipated in the yield curve [20][24]. - 59% of respondents expect 2-year yields to be below 3.4% by year-end [20]. Currency Expectations - There has been a notable shift in sentiment regarding the euro against the dollar, with 46% expecting EUR/USD to end the year above 1.15, compared to only 22% last month [25].