Core Viewpoint - Cheniere Energy (LNG) is experiencing a decline in stock price due to poor natural gas performance, with prices down approximately 2% and inventories exceeding estimates [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - LNG is currently trading at $227.58, down 0.8%, and is facing a potential fifth consecutive daily drop [1][2]. - The stock has previously recovered from a low of $190 in April but is struggling again this week [2]. - Historical data indicates that LNG has approached its 50-day moving average trendline five times in the past three years, with an 80% success rate of stock price increases averaging 2.4% within five trading days following those signals [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The natural gas sector has seen a smaller-than-expected decline in output and gas flows, contributing to the current market conditions [1]. - Options for LNG are currently considered affordable, with a Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 29%, ranking in the 20th percentile of its annual range, indicating low volatility expectations among options traders [3].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed sentiment on equities, with a notable improvement compared to previous bearish views, but still reflects uncertainty in the market [2][6]. Core Insights - Following the US-China trade truce, investors have significantly adjusted their recession expectations, with nearly 60% now assigning a 30% or lower probability of a recession occurring within the next 12 months, a stark contrast to the previous month where nearly half expected a 50% or higher probability [4][6]. - Despite improved sentiment, volatility is anticipated to remain elevated throughout the year, with 60% of respondents expecting the VIX index to reach 30 or higher by year-end [3][13]. - A majority of investors (70%) expect the S&P 500 to end the year above 5,800, a significant increase from only 25% who held this view last month [6]. Summary by Sections Market Sentiment - Risk sentiment has improved on the margin, but investors still expect more bouts of elevated volatility this year [2][13]. - 48% of respondents now expect the Fed funds rate to end the year above 3.75%, up from 31% last month [17][20]. Equities Outlook - The current sentiment on equities is mixed, with 36% bullish and 30% bearish [6]. - The S&P 500 is currently at 5,896, with expectations for year-end values significantly higher than previous estimates [8]. Interest Rates - Investors expect the next Fed rate cut to occur in September, with a slight bull steepening anticipated in the yield curve [20][24]. - 59% of respondents expect 2-year yields to be below 3.4% by year-end [20]. Currency Expectations - There has been a notable shift in sentiment regarding the euro against the dollar, with 46% expecting EUR/USD to end the year above 1.15, compared to only 22% last month [25].

Group 1 - Palantir Technologies Inc stock is experiencing resistance at peak call open interest levels and February highs following the recent first-quarter results [1] - The stock's post-earnings rebound has stalled around the 50% year-to-date level and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating potential for lower highs [1] - Short interest constitutes only 2.3% of the equity's available float, the lowest level since March, allowing room for short sellers to increase their positions [4] Group 2 - The peak call open interest at the 125-strike is acting as resistance, and a decline below $115 could attract shares towards the 100-strike [4] - The stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) is 83 out of 100, indicating it has surpassed options traders' volatility expectations over the past year [5] - A recommended June put option has a leverage ratio of 5.5, which would double with a 15.8% drop in the underlying security [5]

市场洞察 - Marquee --- Market Insights - Marquee Market Insights | Markets | Equities 市场洞察 | 市场 | 股票 GS Flow of Funds: Pulse Check ⾼盛资⾦流动：脉搏检查 Gail Hafif Gail.Hafif@gs.com | Brian Garrett Brian.Garrett@gs.com | Lee Coppersmith Lee.Coppersmith@gs.com Not Zac Efron, but the VIX was 17 Again. 不是扎克 · 埃夫隆，但 VIX ⼜回到了 17 。 and add exposure? Sure you don't remember learning that one in school but still true nonetheless. April Showers bring May vol collapse i.e. opportunities to roll hedges 四⽉的阵⾬带来五⽉的波动率崩溃，也就是对冲滚动和增加敞⼝的 ...

Core Insights - The Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) is a valuable tool for options traders, measuring realized volatility against expectations priced into options over the past year [2][3] - A high SVS indicates that a stock has realized greater volatility than what its options have priced in, making it a potential target for options trading [3][4] - The analysis highlights stocks with consistently high SVS scores, suggesting they are more likely to yield positive returns for options traders [4][9] Summary by Category SVS Overview - SVS is calculated using hypothetical at-the-money straddle trades held until expiration, generating around 250 data points annually [2] - The scoring system combines average straddle return (40%), percentage of positive returns (40%), and percentage of straddles that doubled (20%) into a score from 0 to 100 [3] High-Performing Stocks - Stocks like Moderna Inc (MRNA) and Mondelez International (MDLZ) have high SVS scores, indicating they have consistently provided positive returns despite recent price declines [4][9] - The table of stocks with SVS above 90 shows that several sectors, including pharmaceuticals and food producers, have performed well [5] Consistent Positive Straddles - The analysis identifies stocks with the highest percentage of positive straddles, including MDLZ and MRNA, which have shown strong performance metrics [8] - The data suggests that stocks with a history of positive straddle returns are likely to continue attracting options traders [9] Growth Stocks and Risk Appetite - Risky growth stocks like HIMS and SoundHound AI (SOUN) are highlighted as potential targets for options traders looking for high returns, despite their volatility [11] - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding risk tolerance when selecting stocks for options trading, especially in a post-earnings season environment [11]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported assets under management of $1.4 billion for the quarter, with operating revenues of $2.1 million, reflecting a decrease of $490,000 or 19% from the same quarter last year [64][65] - The net loss for the quarter was $832,000, or $0.03 per share, which is an unfavorable change compared to a net loss of $35,000 in the same quarter of the previous fiscal year [67] - Operating expenses were $3 million, a decrease of $85,000 or 3%, primarily due to lower fund expenses [66] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The decrease in operating revenues was primarily attributed to declines in assets under management, particularly in the JET ETF [65] - Operational earnings consist of advisory services and other earnings, which include realized and unrealized gains and losses on investment holdings [65] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted a significant apathy towards the airline industry despite strong performance from airlines like United, which was up 130% last year [18][36] - The gold mining stocks are trading at multiyear highs, yet there is a paradox where redemptions are occurring despite rising gold prices [40][42] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to increase exposure to the Bitcoin ecosystem and plans to deploy remaining capital back into Bitcoin and Hive, citing a unique growth opportunity [17][26] - The strategic buyback of stock is part of the company's two-pillar strategy to enhance shareholder value through increasing dividends and buying back stock [48][53] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the airline industry transitioning from a cyclical to a growth business, driven by increased travel demand post-COVID [23][20] - The company remains bullish on gold as an asset class, anticipating continued interest from central banks and a potential rise in gold prices due to modern monetary theory [30][34] Other Important Information - The company has maintained a strong balance sheet with high levels of cash and securities, and it has no long-term debt [67] - The current dividend yield is approximately 4.13%, with a total shareholder yield of 10.53% [50][53] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the company's outlook on the airline industry? - Management believes the airline industry will evolve into a growth business rather than remaining cyclical, supported by strong demand for travel [18][20] Question: How does the company view the current state of gold stocks? - Despite the paradox of rising gold prices and redemptions in gold stocks, management remains optimistic about the long-term potential of gold as a safe haven asset [40][42] Question: What are the company's plans regarding Bitcoin investments? - The company plans to increase its exposure to Bitcoin through a dollar-cost averaging program and investments in Hive shares, anticipating regulatory changes that will favor Bitcoin [26][17]