Breaking: The Supreme Court allowed Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook to keep her job for now. It will hear arguments in January on President Trump’s bid to fire her. https://t.co/ygKalkdL8z ...

The US Supreme Court refused to allow President Donald Trump to immediately oust Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook while she sues to keep her job https://t.co/JQi8LqnGrr ...

US Treasuries jumped after a measure of private sector jobs plummeted, leading traders to add to bets on interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year https://t.co/ABoL8Jp7Se ...

Bond Market Reaction & Fed Policy - The long end of the curve is considered cheap based on valuation metrics, but the front end could also move if economic data weakens due to a prolonged shutdown [2] - The market is pricing in gradual Fed cuts to neutral, but a worsening economy (unemployment rate above 45%) could lead to more aggressive Fed action [2] - An independent Fed is responding to data and aiming to reduce the level of restrictiveness, making bonds attractive [6] - The Fed is expected to cut rates to 3%, which is close to neutral, even without a significant slowdown [8] Auction & Demand - End-user demand for Treasury auctions remains strong, indicating structural positives in the US economy [5] - Structural positives in the US economy, such as AI capex and strong corporate fundamentals, are driving demand for US bonds [6] - People look at 55%-6% in high-quality bonds and they like it [6] Investment Strategy & Risk Hedge - The 5 to 10-year part of the curve is considered a sweet spot, offering a balance between yield and duration risk [3][14][15] - Bonds are still considered a hedge, especially with the Fed likely to cut rates more aggressively [12][13] - Investors may diversify into other assets like gold and cryptocurrency, but US Treasuries remain a safe haven [9][10][11][12] - High-yield market can offer yields higher than 5%-6% without taking on that much duration risk [15]

Economic Impact - The Trump administration's policies, including tariffs and attacks on the Federal Reserve, have negatively impacted the dollar [1] - A government shutdown would further harm the dollar, but its impact would be limited [1]

Because when you hear shutdown, it's easy to assume that everything I mean the entire store is closed. Not the case. Let's welcome in Pimco's head of public policy, Libby Cantrill.Uh Libby, welcome. Um lot of 750,000 people, huge potential impact. But I do want to remind our audience that I think this is critical because a lot of people are scared.People get social security, they they use Medicare for healthcare. They're scared. Let's be very clear.During a quote shutdown, people still get social security. ...

All these headwinds? Well, let's ask G Squared Private Wealth CIO and CNBC contributor Victoria Green and Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer Brent Chute. Guys, uh, welcome. Um, Victoria, it's been a really good September by historical standards, unless tomorrow's a disaster. Uh, so assuming it's not, should investors stay long risk? Yes, we're advising staying long risk because we don't fight the Fed. We don't fight the tape. And there are three things going for this market. Tech ...

Government Shutdown Risk - A US government shutdown is looming within 36 hours, with congressional leaders meeting with the President to seek a resolution [2] - The mood in Washington DC suggests a shutdown is likely, although the meeting could be a turning point [3] - Disagreements between Republicans and Democrats over healthcare provisions, specifically Affordable Care Act premium tax credits impacting 20 million Americans, are a key sticking point [4] Economic Impact - A government shutdown would halt the release of economic reports, including the widely watched jobs number [5] - Longer shutdowns extending into October would hinder data collection for key economic indicators like PPI, CPI, and jobs data, potentially impacting data accuracy [7][8] - Moody's predicts each week of a shutdown would shave 0.1% off quarterly GDP growth [9] Impact on Federal Workers - Millions of federal government workers and contractors face potential pay delays or non-payment during a shutdown [9] - While federal workers typically receive back pay, federal contractors may not, impacting businesses [10] - Mass layoffs of federal employees could begin if a government shutdown starts on Tuesday at midnight [10]

for a look at the economy following last week's PCE report. To join us right now is Carlile, head of global research, Jason Thomas. Good morning to you, sir.I think we're all trying to figure out where we really are. So, where are we. >> Well, I I think when you think when you look at the PCE report, I think the first point to make is that the Fed has not hit its inflation target in now 54 months.That's quite a long time. There are about three million uh children who are enrolled in elementary school in the ...

Inflation hawks and doves agree that the Fed is getting it wrong. That's encouraging (via @opinion) https://t.co/JR7L24Es2L ...