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[Music] Hello and welcome to Asking for a Trend. I'm Josh Flipton and for the next half hour, we are breaking down the trends of today that'll move stocks tomorrow. There's a lot to keep track of, so we're focusing on what you need to know to get ahead in the curve here.Some of the trends we're going to be diving right into. The last day of the trading week ends down. Fears of renewed tensions between the US and China sparking a sell-off.All major indices did end the day lower. Gen Z and millennials are gai ...

Market Performance - The S&P 500 reached two new record highs before experiencing its largest daily loss in six months, dropping -2.7% on Friday and resulting in a weekly loss of -2.4% [1] - The index has shown significant volatility, with the largest intraday price volatility recorded at 10.77% on April 9, 2023, since December 24, 2018 [3] Historical Context - The S&P 500 peaked at 1565.15 on October 9, 2007, before a decline of approximately 57% during the Global Financial Crisis, reaching a low of 676.53 on March 9, 2009 [1] - It took over five years for the index to recover and reach a new all-time high of 1569.19 on March 28, 2013 [1] Moving Averages - The S&P 500 has been above the 50-day moving average since May 1, 2023, and above the 200-day moving average since May 12, 2023, with the 50-day moving average surpassing the 200-day moving average since July 1, 2023 [2] Index Comparison - Year-to-date performance shows the S&P 500 up 11.65%, while the S&P Equal Weight Index, which equally weights the same constituents, is up 5.96% [4]

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Volatility across the Digital Stack — Credit $STRC, $STRF, $STRD, $STRK, Capital $BTC, and Equity $MSTR. https://t.co/2BCUNkrEmJ ...

The worst day for US stocks since April sent volatility gauges sharply higher, but left them far below levels that have accompanied past bouts of prolonged equity selling https://t.co/8r3uYj5KxG ...

Market Sentiment and Risk Assessment - The market experienced a pullback, down 15% to 2%, bringing it back to levels seen about a week and a half prior, highlighting the ever-present risks [1][2][4] - A sense of complacency had settled into the market, requiring a reminder that risks are always present and potentially underestimated [3][4] - Institutional investors are expressing increased nervousness about the market situation, though many remain long on their positions [5] - Investors are holding positions in leading stocks to avoid underperformance, despite potential concerns [6] Geopolitical and Economic Factors - News regarding rare earth quotas initially failed to trigger a market reaction [7] - Escalatory language from the president, potentially related to tariffs, served as a catalyst for market movement [8] - The market reaction is viewed as a potential start to a larger trend, contingent on whether buyers emerge to "buy the dip" [9] Volatility and Hedging - The VIX (volatility index) surged from 16 to 22 rapidly, indicating that some participants were caught off guard [11] - The VIX is considered a proxy for institutional hedging demand, which was not significantly high prior to the market shift [13] - Some market participants had been selling implied volatility and were forced to adjust their positions quickly [14]

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