I heard someone say this recently, and it spoke to me: “Market timing is about trying to catch the lightning; risk management is about checking the radar so you aren't standing in a field during a storm.” You might think I’m talking about the stock market. But I’m actually referring to bond investing — and bond exchange-traded fund (ETF) trading. Because bonds have been doing a dance since last year, after rates went from zero to a very respectable amount. More News from Barchart That, for the first ti ...

新华财经北京2月12日电（王菁）债市周四（2月12日）期现券表现稍有分化，国债期货主力合约尾盘回 落、半数收跌，银行间现券收益率延续下行1BP以内；公开市场单日净投放4480亿元，资金利率普遍回 落。 机构认为，临近春节假期，机构持券过节意愿较高，使得盘面呈现"偏暖而克制"的特征；展望节后，市 场焦点或回归基本面与政策节奏。央行对国债买卖常态化的表述让长端利率更有"锚"，短期波动空间被 压住，对配置盘实际比较有利。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘半数下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.03%报112.7，10年期主力合约涨0.02%报108.585元，5年 期主力合约持平于106.065，2年期主力合约跌0.02%报102.458。 银行间主要利率债收益率普遍下行，10年期国开债"25国开20"收益率下行0.55BP报1.9435%，10年期国 债"25附息国债16"收益率下行1BP报1.776%，30年期国债"25超长特别国债06"收益率下行0.15BP报 2.2255%。 【机构观点】 中信证券：CPI同比低位波动而PPI同比稳步回升，对债市基本面定价影响可能偏边际。虽然PPI同比连 续处于回升空间，但2025年8月 ...

2 月债市展望 20260210 摘要 可转债估值已达较高水平，接近 2015 年牛市中期，新券定价甚至超过 当时水平，需警惕高估值风险。 条款调整是近期高溢价率偏股型可转债溢价率压缩的主要原因，存续条 款对可转债估值支撑作用显著。 权益资产配置需求和慢牛预期是配置盘需求的刚性来源，短期内估值中 枢难以受表象问题影响。 2023 年 8 月后可转债供给快速压缩，科技股发新券或改善供给，但政 策效果预计四季度后期显现。 当前策略应聚焦资质好且有存续意愿的老券，这类标的是资金抱团和拔 高估值的主要方向。 价格中枢未明显上升至 150 元以上的转债面临赎回问题，需关注正股的 短期爆发力或具有下修意愿的中低价转债。 预计 2026 年一季度资金面维持平稳宽松，央行大概率续做 6 个月逆回 购，债市收益率或进一步下行。 Q&A 最近可转债市场波动较大，投资者持有体验不佳。请问导致这种情况的主要原 因是什么？ 最近可转债市场波动较大的主要原因包括以下几个方面： 1. 估值水平：从年初以来，可转债的溢价率大幅抬升了 6-7 个百分点，最 近估值波动率也达到了 3-4 个百分点。目前可转债的估值水平与 2015 年牛市中期相 ...

上周受风险资产表现偏弱、央行呵护资金面支撑，债市做多情绪有所提升。昨日国债期货整体走强。分 析人士认为，在避险情绪惯性回落、日历效应以及资金面维持平稳背景下，机构"持券过节"意愿将增 强，春节假期前债市偏强走势将延续，但需警惕政策信号以及风险资产反弹的扰动。节后债市行情分化 和波动率回升的概率较大，重点关注宏观面变化和风险资产走势。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors are advised to consider long-dated put options on the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF due to anticipated increased volatility in the U.S. Treasury markets, driven by rising geopolitical risks and concerns over the national debt trajectory [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The U.S. Treasury debt market is facing significant headwinds, including geopolitical risks and an unsustainable national debt trajectory [1]. - Recent trends indicate that bond and stock market volatility has increased, suggesting a potential for strategic options trading [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - A long-dated put option on TLT stock is recommended for investors looking to capitalize on expected Treasury market volatility [1]. - There are various options strategies available for investors, including a long straddle, which may be beneficial if bond volatility increases [1].

The Bond Market's Calm Could Be Ending. It's a Big Week for Fixed-Income Risks. - Barron'sSkip to Main ContentThis copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit www.djreprints.com.# The Bond Market's Calm Could Be Ending. Clouds Are Piling Up Overseas.By [Martin Baccardax]ShareResize---Reprint ...

Developments from Tokyo to Beijing to London and Washington have the potential to send yields higher. Wall Street is watching. ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京2月9日电（王柘）上周（2026年2月2日至2月6日）政府债发行迎峰，净融资额近8000亿元，央行加大流动性呵护，重启14 天期逆回购操作，并加量开展3个月期买断式逆回购续做，资金面平稳度峰。债市在资金面无虞、PMI不及预期、权益和商品市场走势偏 弱等因素支撑下，收益率整体下行，超长端跌幅明显。 本周债市核心扰动因素仍在资金跨节，预计央行将延续呵护，关注6个月期买断式逆回购到期操作。同时，10年期国债收益率再度临近 1.8%关键点位，后续止盈需求升温及权益市场年前或企稳也将给债市带来一定压力。 行情回顾 2026年2月6日，中债国债到期收益率1年期、2年期、3年期、5年期、7年期、10年期、30年期、50年期较1月30日分别变动 2.08BP、-1.68BP、-2.05BP、-2.09BP、-0.94BP、-0.1BP、-3.8BP、-3.1BP。 | | | 中债国债收益率曲线(到期)* | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 标准期限(年) | 1月30日 | 2月6日 | 变动(BP) | | 0 | 1.112 | 1.092 | ۹ | | 0.0 ...

The iShares 5-10 Year Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (NASDAQ:IGIB) and the iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:IEI) both target the intermediate-term bond market but take different approaches: IGIB focuses on investment-grade corporate debt, while IEI sticks to U.S. Treasuries. This comparison highlights how their expense ratios, yields, historical drawdowns, and portfolio makeup may appeal to different risk and income profiles. Snapshot (cost & size) Metric IGIB IEI Issuer IShares ...

Group 1 - The bond market is currently experiencing an exceptionally quiet phase despite a volatile macroeconomic backdrop [1] - The US benchmark interest rate concluded last week at a notable level, indicating potential trends in the bond market [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of analyzing macro drivers across various asset classes, including stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, and cryptocurrencies [1] - There is a focus on creating engaging narratives around financial data to make it accessible and relevant to everyday investors [1]