Group 1: CPI Expectations - July CPI is expected to rise, with Bloomberg analysts predicting a month-on-month increase of +0.2% and a year-on-year increase of +2.8%[2] - Core CPI is forecasted to increase by +0.3% month-on-month and +3.0% year-on-year[2] - The Federal Reserve's Inflation Nowcasting predicts a month-on-month increase of +0.16% for CPI and +0.24% for core CPI, with year-on-year increases of +2.72% and +3.04% respectively[2] Group 2: Market Reactions - The expectation of a rate cut has increased due to geopolitical easing, leading to a rise in U.S. stock markets, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gaining 2.43% and 3.87% respectively[3] - U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 6.7 basis points to 4.283% and the 2-year yield rising by 8.1 basis points to 3.762%[3] - The dollar index decreased by 0.97% to 98.18, while spot gold prices rose by 1.02% to $3,397 per ounce[3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The ISM Services PMI for July recorded at 50.1, below the expected 51.5, indicating a slowdown in service sector growth[3] - New orders fell to 50.3 and the employment index dropped to 46.4, suggesting weakening demand in the services sector[3] - The New York Fed's consumer survey indicated a one-year inflation expectation of 3.09%, up from 3.02%[3] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - The implementation of tariffs may lead to further inflationary pressures, with the potential for CPI to rise in the coming months[4] - There is a risk that the Federal Reserve's rate cuts could lead to an inflation rebound if executed too aggressively[4] - The nomination of Stephen Milan to the Federal Reserve Board may increase internal disagreements regarding future interest rate paths[3]

Inflation Data Summary - In July 2025, the CPI year-on-year remained at 0.0%, down from 0.1% in June, while the month-on-month increased by 0.4% compared to a previous decrease of -0.1%[2] - The PPI year-on-year remained at -3.6%, with a month-on-month decrease of -0.2%, an improvement from -0.4% in June[2] CPI Analysis - The core CPI year-on-year rose to 0.8%, the highest since March 2024, driven by a 0.6% increase in service prices[2] - Food prices showed significant weakness, with a month-on-month decrease of -0.2%, below the 5-year average of 1.1%[2] - Non-food prices increased by 0.3% year-on-year, up from 0.1% in June, with travel services and certain consumer goods contributing to this rise[2] PPI Insights - The month-on-month decline in PPI narrowed to -0.2%, the smallest drop since March 2025, indicating a potential stabilization in upstream prices[2] - The decrease in production materials was -0.2%, a reduction of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by "anti-involution" policies[2] Risks and Future Outlook - Key risks include potential delays in domestic policy implementation, unexpected declines in real estate investment, and inflation in the U.S. exceeding expectations[2]

Core Insights - The July PPI improved on a month-on-month basis but remained unchanged year-on-year at -3.6%, slightly below market expectations, indicating a disconnect in price transmission from upstream raw materials to downstream industries [1][2] - The "anti-involution" policy has led to significant price increases in key commodities such as coal, steel, and lithium, but these increases have not effectively translated into higher industrial product prices [2][3] - The ongoing "pig cycle misalignment" has resulted in CPI slightly exceeding market expectations, driven by unexpected price increases in core goods, energy, and other services [5][6] PPI Analysis - The month-on-month PPI improved due to rising commodity prices, but the year-on-year figure did not show improvement, highlighting weak downstream demand and limited pricing power for enterprises [1][3] - The analysis framework indicates that while upstream raw material prices have improved, the PPI for downstream industries has continued to decline, particularly in the export chain [4] - The dual impact of supply-side policies and demand-side pressures is evident, with the export chain facing significant downward pressure [4] CPI Insights - The CPI for July was reported at 0.0% year-on-year, slightly above the expected -0.1%, driven by durable goods benefiting from trade-in subsidies and rising energy prices [5][6] - The increase in CPI was significantly influenced by the price hikes in gold and platinum jewelry, contributing approximately 0.22 percentage points to the overall CPI [5] - Expectations for CPI improvement are projected for September, considering the ongoing misalignment in the pig cycle and slow recovery in consumer spending [6] Market Implications - The bond market may experience low volatility as CPI and PPI figures align closely with market expectations, with a focus on inflation recovery and potential demand-side policies [7] - The overall economic environment remains sensitive to both domestic policy effectiveness and international trade dynamics, which could influence future market performance [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Current price data remains weak, and domestic demand recovery is limited after excluding seasonal summer effects. The increase in July's core CPI is mainly supported by the summer travel boom and high gold prices. The divergence between PPI production and living materials shows that the policy effects of the national unified market construction are concentrated in upstream industries, and the ineffective recovery of domestic demand restricts PPI's year - on - year recovery. The sustainability of the industrial price increase and its price transmission to downstream industries depend on the improvement of terminal demand. Given the uncertainty in the trade environment, a loose monetary environment is needed to stabilize domestic demand [4][29]. - After the implementation of the VAT policy, the bond market adjustment is limited. With relatively loose funds, the central bank's net injection of 300 billion yuan in 3 - month repurchase agreements on the 8th may help the market recovery. The first - stage interest rate will return to the pre - adjustment level. Whether it can break through the previous low depends on other market performances and fundamental pressures. The recent rise in commodities and the stock market is mainly based on expectations, and the unchanged year - on - year decline in July's PPI indicates slowing demand. For the bond market, the overall pattern of asset shortage remains unchanged. It is expected that the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds may return to around 1.65% and 1.85% in the short term, and may break through the previous low if other markets rise moderately and demand continues to slow [5][30]. Summary by Related Catalogs CPI Analysis - **Overall CPI Situation**: In July, CPI continued to be low, with the year - on - year growth rate slowing down by 0.1 percentage points to 0%. The month - on - month growth rate was 0.4%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. Core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and 0.4% month - on - month. The growth of core CPI was mainly due to the summer travel demand and high gold prices. After excluding the "other goods and services" item affected by gold prices, the overall price level was still weak [1][2]. - **Non - food CPI**: In July, non - food CPI increased by 0.3% year - on - year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and 0.5% month - on - month. The rise in summer service prices was the main reason, with service prices increasing by 0.6% month - on - month, contributing more than 60% to the CPI increase [2]. - **Food CPI**: In July, food CPI decreased by 1.6% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, and decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points. The year - on - year decline in pork prices was the main reason for the expanding decline in food CPI. Affected by high - temperature and rainy weather, the prices of fresh vegetables and aquatic products increased month - on - month [13]. PPI Analysis - **Overall PPI Situation**: In July, PPI showed a lagging performance, with a year - on - year decline of 3.6%, the same as the previous month. The decline in the year - on - year and month - on - month production materials PPI narrowed slightly. The prices of most domestic manufacturing raw materials decreased month - on - month, mainly affected by seasonal factors and international trade uncertainties. The prices of industries with high export proportions were under increasing downward pressure, but the month - on - month decline in many industries' prices converged under the influence of the national unified market construction [1][3][23]. - **Production and Living Materials PPI**: In July, the production materials PPI decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points. The living materials PPI decreased by 1.6% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [23][24]. Bond Market Analysis - After the implementation of the VAT policy, the bond market adjustment was limited. With relatively loose funds, the central bank's net injection of 300 billion yuan in 3 - month repurchase agreements on the 8th may help the market recovery. The first - stage interest rate will return to the pre - adjustment level. The recent rise in commodities and the stock market was mainly based on expectations, and the unchanged year - on - year decline in July's PPI indicated slowing demand. For the bond market, the overall pattern of asset shortage remained unchanged. It is expected that the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds may return to around 1.65% and 1.85% in the short term, and may break through the previous low if other markets rise moderately and demand continues to slow [5][30].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Not provided Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Data - **Futures Settlement Prices and Weekly Changes**: 10 - year Treasury bond futures T2509.CFE settled at 108.61 with a 0.15% weekly increase, T2512.CFE at 108.505 with a 0.07% increase; 5 - year Treasury bond futures TF2509.CFE at 105.82 with a 0.09% increase, TF2512.CFE at 105.875 with a 0.09% increase; 2 - year Treasury bond futures TS2509.CFE at 102.37 with a 0.02% increase, TS2512.CFE at 102.436 with a 0.04% increase; 30 - year Treasury bond futures TL2509.CFE at 119.25 with a 0.13% increase, TL2512.CFE at 118.880 with a 0.05% increase [7] - **Spread Data**: The T2509 - T2512 inter - term spread was 0.105 with a weekly decline of 0.523; TF2509 - TF2512 was - 0.055 with a decline of 12.000; TS2509 - TS2512 was - 0.066 with an increase of 7.250. The 2TS - T cross - variety spread was 300.870 with a decline of 0.088; 2TF - T was 103.030 with an increase of 0.020; TS - TF was 98.920 with a decline of 0.054 [7] - **Spot Bond Yields**: The 1Y Treasury bond yield was 1.35% with a weekly decline of 1.99 BP; 2Y was 1.40% with a decline of 2.69 BP; 3Y was 1.42% with a decline of 2.86 BP; 5Y was 1.54% with a decline of 2.39 BP; 7Y was 1.65% with a decline of 1.67 BP; 10Y was 1.69% with a decline of 1.88 BP; 30Y was 1.96% with an increase of 0.90 BP. The 1Y China Development Bank bond yield was 1.50% with an increase of 0.04 BP; 3Y was 1.63% with a decline of 0.99 BP; 5Y was 1.66% with a decline of 0.62 BP; 7Y was 1.79% with a decline of 0.01 BP; 10Y was 1.78% with an increase of 1.59 BP; 30Y was 2.05% with an increase of 0.16 BP [7] - **Funding Rates**: The DR001 inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.31% with a weekly decline of 0.23 BP; DR007 was 1.43% with an increase of 0.09 BP; DR014 was 1.47% with a decline of 6.13 BP. The SHIBOR1M rate was 1.53% with a decline of 2.34 BP; SHIBOR3N was 1.55% with a decline of 0.86 BP [7] 2. CPI and PPI Data - **CPI Data**: The CPI in July was 0.4%, up 0.5 pct compared to the previous period, and the CPI in February 2024 was 0.8%, up 0.4 pct compared to the previous period. There were also various historical CPI data comparisons [21] - **PPI Data**: The PPI had changes such as a 0.4 pct change to - 0.2%, a 1 pct change to - 0.2 pct, etc [24]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A remains negative, while Index B shows a seasonal decline of 0.43, indicating a slowdown in domestic economic growth momentum[1] - Investment sector sentiment has improved, while consumption and real estate sectors have seen a decline in sentiment[1] - Fixed asset investment year-on-year growth is at 2.80%, retail sales year-on-year growth is at 4.80%, and exports year-on-year growth is at 7.20%[3] Price Trends - Food prices have increased by approximately 1.0% month-on-month, while non-food prices have decreased by about -0.1%, leading to an overall CPI increase of 0.1% month-on-month and a year-on-year CPI drop to -0.3%[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month, with a significant year-on-year recovery to -2.6%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, and the Shanghai Composite Index is high; predictions indicate a rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of August 15, 2025[1][19] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of August 15, 2025, is 2.42%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to be 3,196.51[20]

Group 1 - In July 2025, Guangdong's Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month; month-on-month, it shifted from a decrease of 0.2% to an increase of 0.5% [1] - From January to July 2025, the average CPI in Guangdong fell by 0.4% compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2 - In July 2025, Guangdong's Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.0% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month; month-on-month, it fell by 0.2%, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points [1] - The Industrial Producer Purchase Price Index (IPI) in Guangdong decreased by 4.1% year-on-year and fell by 0.3% month-on-month in July 2025 [1] - From January to July 2025, the average PPI in Guangdong decreased by 1.4%, while the IPI fell by 2.8% [1]

Economic Indicators - In July, China's CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a 0.1% decline from the previous month, and the year-on-year core CPI rose by 0.8%, marking the highest increase since March 2024 [3] - The PPI in July decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was narrowed by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the first contraction since March [3] Agricultural Sector - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported that China's pork production and consumption account for about 60% of total meat consumption, and measures will be taken to adjust the breeding of approximately 1 million sows to prevent price volatility [3] Small and Medium Enterprises - The China Small and Medium Enterprises Development Index (SMEDI) for July remained stable at 89.0, with significant increases in sectors such as construction, transportation, real estate, and information technology [3] Trade and Tariffs - The U.S. trade-weighted average tariff rate has risen to 20.11%, significantly higher than the 2.44% at the beginning of the year, indicating a substantial increase in trade barriers [5] - The World Trade Organization has downgraded the global goods trade growth forecast for 2026 from 2.5% to 1.8%, citing recent tariff adjustments as a negative influence on global trade prospects [5] International Relations - European leaders emphasized that any diplomatic solution regarding the Ukraine crisis must protect the significant security interests of Europe and Ukraine [5] - Discussions are ongoing between Qatar and the U.S. regarding a comprehensive ceasefire agreement for the Gaza conflict, expected to be submitted for discussion soon [5]

（文章来源：深圳商报） ...

Core Viewpoints - The weak performance of PPI is attributed to two "dark lines": the timing of statistics and low capacity utilization in the mid and downstream sectors [2][8][69] - In July, PPI continued to bottom out, with a month-on-month decline of 0.2% and a year-on-year rate of -3.6%, which was below market expectations [2][8][69] - The rise in commodity prices did not fully reflect in the PPI due to the timing of price surveys, which did not capture late-month price increases [2][8][69] PPI Analysis - The PPI's month-on-month decline was influenced by a significant drag from mid and downstream prices, which contributed to a -0.3% impact on PPI [2][13][69] - The PPI performance was also affected by tariffs, with industries heavily reliant on exports experiencing downward price pressure [2][13][69] - High-frequency data showed a divergence from PPI trends, with coal and steel prices recovering, while coal mining and black metal processing remained negative [2][8][69] CPI Analysis - In July, the core CPI rose to its highest level in a year and a half, driven by demand recovery and the end of commodity subsidies [3][20][70] - The CPI's month-on-month increase of 0.4% was slightly above the average since 2017, with core CPI rising 0.8% year-on-year [3][20][70] - The demand for core services improved due to summer travel, although rental prices remained weak [3][28][70] Food Prices Impact - Food prices were weak, constraining the CPI's recovery, with food CPI down 1.6% year-on-year, a decline that expanded by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month [4][33][71] - Fresh vegetable prices fell significantly, contributing to the downward pressure on CPI [4][33][71] - The supply of pork continued to rise, leading to lower pork prices, which also impacted the overall food CPI [4][34][71] Future Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to boost commodity prices, but excess supply in the mid and downstream sectors may limit the transmission of upstream price increases [4][39][71] - The forecast suggests that inflation will remain weak throughout the year, with limited recovery in both PPI and CPI due to the current supply-demand dynamics [4][39][71] - Core commodity CPI may be suppressed by downstream PPI, and agricultural supply is expected to remain ample, leading to moderate improvements in CPI [4][39][71]