7月CPI、PPI数据将公布；新发国债等债券利息将交增值税；港股市场下调最低上落价位的第一阶段将生 效；2025世界机器人大会将举行。 开源证券指出，CPI方面，结合农产品批发价格指数等高频数据，预计7月CPI环比在0%左右，同比或 在-0.5%左右。PPI方面，结合CRB现货指数等高频数据，预计7月PPI同比、环比均有回升。 新发国债等债券利息将交增值税 近日，财政部、税务总局就国债、地方政府债券、金融债券利息收入增值税政策有关事项发布公告称，自 2025年8月8日起，对在该日期之后（含当日）新发行的国债、地方政府债券、金融债券的利息收入，恢复 征收增值税。 港股市场下调最低上落价位的第一阶段将生效 【重磅新闻】 7月CPI、PPI数据将公布 8月9日，国家统计局将公布7月CPI、PPI数据。 7月28日，香港交易所宣布，香港证券市场下调最低上落价位的第一阶段将于下周一（8月4日）生效。所谓 最低上落价位是每只股票的最小价格变动单位，这项措施将有助于降低市场的交易成本并提升交易效率。 其中，10港元—20港元区间的证券买卖最低上落价位从0.02港元调整为0.01港元，20港元—50港元区间的最 低上落价位从 ...

Anyone with half a brain knew the BLS data was wrong for years.Bitcoiners have been calling attention to how inaccurate the CPI metric has been.Gold is outperforming the stock market in the last decade and you think inflation was only 2% per year?! ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年8月1日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：8月1日关税大限临近，今日重要事件和数据集中，金价震荡回升；美国 三大股指全线收跌，欧洲主要股指收盘全线下跌；美债收益率涨跌不一，10年期美 债收益率跌0.20个基点报4.366%；美元指数跌0.02%报100.04，离岸人民币对美元小 幅贬值报7.2085；COMEX黄金期货跌0.31%报3342.30美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货770.28，现货766.53，基差-3.75，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单35643千克，增加2199千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，k线 ...

俄罗斯统计局：俄罗斯7月28日当周CPI周环比下降0.05%，2025年迄今CPI上升4.51%。 ...

俄罗斯7月28日当周CPI周环比下降0.05%（7月21日当周下降0.05%），2025年迄今CPI上升4.51%（前次 升幅报4.56%）。 ...

Group 1 - Key Point 1: The Bank of Japan is set to announce its interest rate decision, which could impact market expectations and investor sentiment [1] - Key Point 2: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release its interest rate decision, followed by a press conference from Chairman Jerome Powell, indicating potential shifts in U.S. monetary policy [1] - Key Point 3: China's official manufacturing PMI for July will be released, providing insights into the health of the manufacturing sector and economic activity [1] Group 2 - Key Point 1: Switzerland's actual retail sales year-on-year for June will be reported, which may reflect consumer spending trends in the region [1] - Key Point 2: The press conference by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will be closely watched for insights on future monetary policy direction [1] - Key Point 3: France's preliminary CPI month-on-month for July will be released, which is crucial for understanding inflation trends in the Eurozone [1] Group 3 - Key Point 1: Germany's seasonally adjusted unemployment figures for July will be published, providing a snapshot of the labor market [1] - Key Point 2: The Eurozone's unemployment rate for June will be reported, which is essential for assessing economic stability in the region [1] - Key Point 3: The Challenger Job Cut Report for July will indicate the number of layoffs in the U.S., offering insights into employment trends [1] Group 4 - Key Point 1: Germany's preliminary CPI month-on-month for July will be released, which is important for gauging inflationary pressures [1] - Key Point 2: Canada's GDP month-on-month for May will be reported, providing insights into economic growth [1] - Key Point 3: The U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending July 26 will be published, which is a key indicator of labor market health [1] Group 5 - Key Point 1: The U.S. core PCE price index year-on-year for June will be released, which is a critical measure of inflation [1] - Key Point 2: The U.S. personal spending month-on-month for June will be reported, indicating consumer behavior and economic activity [1] - Key Point 3: The U.S. labor cost index quarter-on-quarter for Q2 will be published, which is important for understanding wage pressures [1] Group 6 - Key Point 1: The U.S. core PCE price index month-on-month for June will be released, providing further insights into inflation trends [1] - Key Point 2: The Chicago PMI for July will be published, which is a key indicator of manufacturing activity in the U.S. [1] - Key Point 3: The EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending July 25 will be reported, which is significant for energy market dynamics [1]

Group 1: Market Trends and Economic Indicators - The current commodity futures market is driven by a combination of "strong expectations," "weak realities," and "speculative demand," with PPI expectations for April 2026 turning positive[2] - As of June 2025, the CPI increased by only 0.1% year-on-year, significantly below the 2% inflation target, while PPI fell to a new low of -3.6%, marking 33 consecutive months of negative growth[2] - Recent commodity price movements include coking coal surpassing 1200 CNY/ton, lithium carbonate exceeding 80000 CNY/ton, rebar breaking 3300 CNY/ton, and live pig prices exceeding 15000 CNY[2] Group 2: Policy Implications and Market Dynamics - The "anti-involution" policy aims to establish a high-level market system and correct local government behaviors, rather than directly targeting price increases[4] - The current low inflation environment is influenced by supply-side factors, structural adjustments, and global industrial roles, validating China's manufacturing advantages[2] - The speculative demand has reignited due to the combination of strong expectations and weak realities, leading to increased price volatility in the commodity market[2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The commodity market currently reflects a positive price recovery expectation, with potential for PPI to turn positive by April 2026 if current price levels are maintained[4] - The report highlights risks including unexpected downturns in real estate, insufficient policy implementation, and underwhelming effects of new real estate policies[4] - The "anti-involution" policy is not necessarily synonymous with rising prices, as it focuses on optimizing supply-demand dynamics rather than broad monetary expansion[4]

Group 1: Report Core View - Bank - to - bank major interest - rate bond yields generally rose by about 4bp; Treasury bond futures closed sharply lower, with the 30 - year main contract down 0.78% and the 10 - year main contract down 0.25%. The yields of bank "secondary and perpetual bonds" generally rose by about 4bp. The central bank made continuous net injections in the open market, and the short - term liquidity in the inter - bank market further eased. The weighted average rate of DR001 dropped by about 10bp to around 1.36%. Recently, the sharply falling commodity futures showed signs of stabilizing, and the stock market continued to fluctuate strongly, expanding its gains in the afternoon, suppressing the risk - aversion sentiment. In addition, rumors about the Politburo meeting focusing on "anti - involution" also had a certain negative impact. Continued attention should be paid to the final meeting content and the progress of China - US negotiations [3] - On July 29, the People's Bank of China conducted 449.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. The bid volume was 449.2 billion yuan, and the winning volume was 449.2 billion yuan. According to Wind data, 214.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on that day, resulting in a net injection of 234.4 billion yuan for the day [3] - The main basis of TS is 0.0139, with the spot bond at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The main basis of TF is 0.0286, with the spot bond at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The main basis of T is 0.1589, with the spot bond at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The main basis of TL is 0.3153, with the spot bond at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [3] - The balances of deliverable bonds for the main contracts of TS, TF, and T are 1.3594 trillion, 1.4935 trillion, and 2.3599 trillion respectively; it is neutral [4] - The main contract of TS is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish. The main contract of TF is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish. The main contract of T is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [4] - The main contract of TS has a net long position, and the long position increases. The main contract of TF has a net long position, and the long position increases. The main contract of T has a net long position, and the long position decreases [5] - In June, the three major PMI indices all rebounded, the year - on - year CPI turned positive, and the core CPI continued to rise. China's LPR in July remained unchanged for the second consecutive month. In the first half of the year, the total financial volume increased reasonably, and China's credit total... (incomplete information in the original text) [6] Group 2: Market Review - The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contract market element table shows that for T2509, the current price is 108.130, down 0.25%, with a trading volume of 77,800, an open interest of 187,214, a daily open - interest change of - 625, and the CTD bond is 240013.IB; for TF2509, the current price is 105.545, down 0.17%, with a trading volume of 59,900, an open interest of 148,330, a daily open - interest change of - 32, and the CTD bond is 240001.IB; for TS2509, the current price is 102.302, down 0.06%, with a trading volume of 40,300, an open interest of 98,505, a daily open - interest change of - 2929, and the CTD bond is 240012.IB; for TL2509, the current price is 117.87, down 0.78%, with a trading volume of 140,800, an open interest of 120,771, a daily open - interest change of + 488, and the CTD bond is 200012.IB [9] Group 3: Cash Bond Analysis - There are data on DR interest rates and inter - bank Treasury bond yields and Treasury bond term spreads, but specific numerical analysis is not clearly summarized in the given text [10][14] Group 4: Basis Analysis - There are basis analysis charts for T2509, TF2509, and TS2509 CTD bonds, showing the basis trends from December 16, 2024, to May 20, 2025 [17][18][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report updates the high - frequency data of the Guosheng fixed - income fundamental index from July 21 to July 25, 2025, covering various aspects such as production, demand, prices, transportation, inventory, and financing. It shows that the fundamental high - frequency index is stable, with different trends in each sub - index, including changes in growth rates and fluctuations in specific indicators [1][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Stable - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 126.8 points (previous value 126.7 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 5.3 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds weakens, with the signal factor at 4.6% (previous value 4.7%) [1][9]. 2. Production - The industrial production high - frequency index is 126.1 (previous value 126.0), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 5.0 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The PX operating rate has been declining continuously. The current PX operating rate is 82.4% (previous value 83.2%) [1][13]. 3. Real Estate Sales - The real estate sales high - frequency index shows that property transactions are picking up. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities is 21.0 million square meters (previous value 17.1 million square meters), and the premium rate of land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities is 7.8% (previous value 6.7%) [25]. 4. Infrastructure Investment - The infrastructure investment high - frequency index is 119.8 (previous value 119.5), with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 points and a year - on - year increase of 4.2 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt devices has decreased, with the current operating rate at 28.8% (previous value 32.8%) [9][34]. 5. Export - The export high - frequency index is 143.9 (previous value 144.0), with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 3.7 points, and the year - on - year growth rate narrows. The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) has been declining continuously, with the current CCFI index at 1261 points (previous value 1304 points) [9][36]. 6. Consumption - The consumption high - frequency index is 119.7 (previous value 119.7), with a week - on - week increase of 0.0 points and a year - on - year increase of 2.5 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands. Retail and wholesale sales of passenger vehicle manufacturers continue to rise. The current retail sales of passenger vehicle manufacturers are 58,207 units (previous value 47,548 units), and the wholesale sales are 57,826 units (previous value 46,085 units) [9][49]. 7. CPI - The month - on - month CPI forecast is 0.1% (previous value 0.0%). Fruit prices continue to decline. The average wholesale price of 7 key monitored fruits is 7.1 yuan/kg (previous value 7.3 yuan/kg) [1][55]. 8. PPI - The month - on - month PPI forecast is 0.2% (previous value 0.1%). The price of thermal coal has rebounded. The closing price of thermal coal (produced in Shanxi) at Qinhuangdao Port is 649 yuan/ton (previous value 637 yuan/ton) [1][61]. 9. Transportation - The transportation high - frequency index is 129.2 (previous value 129.0), with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 points and a year - on - year increase of 8.9 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands. Passenger volume and flight operation numbers have decreased. The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities is 39 million person - times (previous value 41.14 million person - times), and the number of domestic flights is 14,428 flights (previous value 14,653 flights) [2][71]. 10. Inventory - The inventory high - frequency index is 161.0 (previous value 160.9), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 9.4 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. Soda ash inventory has declined. The current soda ash inventory is 1.874 million tons (previous value 1.895 million tons) [2][77]. 11. Financing - The financing high - frequency index is 232.7 (previous value 232.1), with a week - on - week increase of 0.6 points and a year - on - year increase of 29.6 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands. Net financing of local government bonds and credit bonds has increased. The net financing of local government bonds is 292.9 billion yuan (previous value 150.5 billion yuan), and the net financing of credit bonds is 54.9 billion yuan (previous value 44.6 billion yuan) [2][87].

Economic Overview - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, ranking among the top major economies globally [1] - The per capita disposable income for residents reached 21,840 yuan, also reflecting a nominal growth of 5.3% compared to the same period last year [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year, indicating a stable yet decreasing trend in domestic prices [1] Real Estate Market Changes - The real estate market continued to experience a decline in both volume and price, with new residential sales area down by 3.5% and sales value down by 5.5% in the first half of 2025 [5] - A significant change in housing prices is expected, with a divergence in price trends across different cities; cities with previously larger declines may see a slowdown, while major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen may face further price drops [5] - The pre-sale system for commercial housing is anticipated to be gradually abolished, with an increase in the proportion of completed homes for sale, allowing buyers to view properties before purchasing [7] - The government plans to accelerate the market entry of affordable housing, aiming to provide 6 million units over the next five years, which will likely reduce costs for buyers and exert downward pressure on market prices [7] Automotive Market Dynamics - The automotive market is experiencing a price reduction trend, with many brands reducing prices by 20,000 to 30,000 yuan for mid-range vehicles and up to 90,000 yuan for luxury cars [9] - Factors contributing to this price reduction include an influx of new energy vehicles, increased competition from tech companies entering the automotive sector, and a decline in demand due to reduced middle-class incomes [9] Banking and Savings Landscape - Concerns are rising that holding cash may become less valuable due to excessive money supply, with M2 reaching 326 trillion yuan, over twice the GDP of 2024 [11] - Despite a slight decline in CPI, the economy is currently experiencing deflation rather than inflation, as excess money is not circulating into the economy [11] - Although deposit rates have fallen to historic lows, further declines are expected to be limited, as extremely low rates may lead to significant withdrawals from banks, increasing financing difficulties [13]