生产热度回升，出口量价分化 [Table_Authors] 国内高频指标跟踪（2025 年第 37 期） 本报告导读： 生产热度回升，出口量价分化，10 年期国债利率上行至 2025 年最高位。 投资要点： 宏 观 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.09.14 [Table_Report] 2025-09-17 [Table_Summary] 上周高频数据显示，消费方面，服务消费持续回落，商品消费分化， 食品服装消费季节性上升，耐用消费品表现偏弱；投资方面，地产 仍显疲弱，尽管 9 月北深等一线城市相继优化地产政策，新房销售 未见持续好转，土地市场整体平淡，开工建设有所好转，或因天气 扰动消退；进出口方面，港口运力需求随圣诞备货旺季来临有所上 升，国内出口运价持续下行，反映技术性抢运逐步退潮。生产方面， 整体热度回升。价格方面，CPI 平稳运行，PPI 多数下降。流动性层 面，10 年期国债利率上行至 2025 年以来最高位，或与权益市场表 现强势、通胀数据有所改善有关。 风险提示：贸易局势不确定性，地缘政治风险加 ...

加拿大8月CPI环比下降0.1%，前值0.3%。 ...

3892点！周五A股盘中突然冲高，离3900点仅一步之遥。 诡异的是成交量却连续两周下滑，从8月底日均近3万亿跌到本周2.3万亿，一边是AI算力板块带着科创50指数暴涨5.5%。 一边是不少投资者纠结要不要减仓，这缩量上涨到底是陷阱还是机会？ 更关键的是，8月CPI同比降0.4%，通缩担忧还没散，美国却要启动年内第三次降息。 内外消息搅在一起，接下来该盯着哪些信号做决策？ 先看资金动向：存款搬家还在继续，聪明钱已悄悄调仓 别被缩量吓住，资金面的积极信号其实不少。 截至本周四，两融资金成交额占比回到11.5%，和之前的高点持平，单周净流入518亿，比上周的256亿翻了一倍还多，说明杠杆资金开始主动进场。 ETF这边更能看出普通投资者的动作，虽然整体增量有限，但近4周行业主题 ETF 吸金1010 亿，这可不是小数字，意味着大家不是在撤资，而是在找方向。 还有个细节值得注意，8月居民新增存款只有1100亿，远低于往年同期水平，反观非银机构新增存款11800亿，差了10倍还多。 这背后的逻辑很清晰：居民手里的钱没再往银行躺，而是通过基金、券商等渠道进入市场，这种 "存款搬家" 的趋势没断，市场就有资金支撑。 再盯基 ...

今夜，万众瞩目的8月CPI数据即将揭晓，北京时间9月12日晚8点30分，这场经济盛宴将准时开席。华尔街的普遍预期是，受 到夏末油价回升以及部分进口商品新关税的连锁反应，通胀或将呈现温和反弹之势。预测普遍指向，整体CPI环比将达到 0.3%，同比约为2.9%；而剔除食品和能源的核心CPI，预计环比亦为0.3%，同比则可能维持在3.1%。然而，在这看似一致的 预测背后，投行内部的意见却并非铁板一块。高盛便乐观地预测核心CPI环比将攀升至0.36%，摩根大通更是将这一数字推高 至0.4%。这两家巨头不约而同地将关税视为"通胀的隐形推手"，在其模型中，关税如同一个蓄势待发的发动机，一旦企业消 化完旧库存，上涨的成本便会悄无声息地传导至货架标价。 场内外的对话充满了经济学家的智慧与市场的敏锐。在一次简短的电话交流中，当被问及今晚最关键的观察点时，一位中型 基金的策略师几乎是脱口而出："千万不要只盯着总体数据，务必聚焦核心项目的细分项：关税项、住房成本、二手车价格以 及机票价格——这些数据的任何风吹草动，都可能导致我们的投资策略需要'翻页'。"这句话极具洞察力，它提醒我们，CPI 报告并非一个单一的"惊雷"，而是由无数个 ...

"The 2% inflation target is dead."@VincentDeluard says inflation likely will surprise to the upside.Powell may resist aggressive cuts, but the regime shift is clear: “3% is now the CPI floor." https://t.co/uQA79CtLj8 ...

资产配置与金融工程 证券研究报告 美元弱势，降息在即，全球风险资产上行 ——大类资产周报（20250908-20250914） 分析师：朱定豪 SAC执业资格证书编码: S0020521120002 邮箱：zhudinghao@gyzq.com.cn 2025年9月15日 分析师：汤静文 SAC执业资格证书编码: S0020524060001 邮箱：tangjingwen@gyzq.com.cn 一、本周大类资产交易主线 本周宏观增长因子继续向上，通胀高频因子反弹态势减弱，国内CPI同比转负（-0.4%），PPI同比降幅收窄至-2.9%，反映内需不足 矛盾仍突出，美联储降息节奏推动全球流动性预期向上。亚洲权益市场（韩综指+5.94%、恒生科技+5.31%）受益于外资回流及AI 产业主线，美股三大指数创下历史新高，美联储降息预期下美元走弱（-0.13%），黄金、白银（沪银+2.79%创历史新高）避险逻辑 强化。A股成长风格占优（科创50涨5.48%），中小盘（中证1000涨2.45%）跑赢大盘蓝筹，估值压力抬升，但盈利预期未见明显同 步改善，资金面支撑仍然是目前主要驱动力。债市资金分流， 10年期国债期货跌0. ...

Group 1 - The "anti-involution" governance effects are becoming evident, with recent measures to regulate disorderly competition among enterprises leading to positive changes in production prices across related industries [2] - Consumer demand is expected to expand, driven by seasonal factors such as increased food consumption as temperatures drop and upcoming holidays like the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, which are likely to boost CPI [2] - The transmission of production prices to consumer prices is expected to support the rise of CPI, although there are uncertainties regarding the impact of international energy market price fluctuations on domestic prices [2] Group 2 - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that in August, the year-on-year decline in factory prices for coal, steel, new energy vehicles, and photovoltaics has narrowed, indicating a weakening downward pressure on PPI and a return to a reasonable price range [2] - The steel industry is a key focus of the "anti-involution" initiative, with the China Iron and Steel Association actively promoting industry self-discipline and the establishment of a price supervision system [2][3] - High-tech manufacturing industries have shown significant growth, with a 9.3% increase in value added for large-scale high-tech manufacturing in July and August, outpacing the overall industrial growth rate [3] Group 3 - The macroeconomic policies are expected to continue to support steady economic growth in the third quarter, with ongoing efforts to enhance high-level openness and diversify trade [4]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% year-on-year in August, indicating a cooling trend, but the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased by 0.9%, reflecting a gradual recovery in consumer spending [3][5] - Food prices overall dropped by 2.5% in August, primarily due to significant declines in pork prices (down 16.1%) and fresh vegetables (down 15.2%), which are influenced by seasonal factors [3][4] - Other consumer sectors showed positive trends, with clothing prices rising by 1.8%, household goods and services also up by 1.8%, and education, culture, and entertainment increasing by 1.0%, indicating a shift towards improved consumer quality of life [4][6] Group 2: PPI Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers fell by 2.9% year-on-year in August, but the rate of decline narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared to July, signaling a potential easing of profit pressures for industrial enterprises [4][6] - The narrowing decline in PPI suggests that the costs of raw materials for factories are stabilizing, which may lead to improved business expectations and increased production investments [4][6] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The core CPI's steady increase is a key indicator of underlying economic strength, suggesting that consumer spending foundations are gradually solidifying, which is essential for economic recovery [5][6] - The positive changes in CPI and PPI data indicate a trend towards economic stability, with potential investment opportunities in sectors related to consumer quality goods and industrial production as the economy shows signs of gradual recovery [6]

证券研究报告 | 固定收益定期 gszqdatemark 2025 09 15 年 月 日 固定收益定期 食品价格环比回升——基本面高频数据跟踪 本期国盛基本面高频指数为 127.6 点（前值为 127.5 点），当周同比增 加 5.6 点（前值为增加 5.6 点），同比增幅不变。利率债多空信号不变， 信号因子为 5.0%（前值为 5.0%）。 生产方面，工业生产高频指数为 126.9，前值为 126.7，当周同比增加 5.3 点（前值为增加 5.2 点），同比增幅扩大。 总需求方面，商品房销售高频指数为 42.8，前值为 42.9，当周同比下 降 6.3 点（前值为下降 6.3 点），同比降幅不变；基建投资高频指数为 121.0，前值为 120.8，当周同比增加 6.5 点（前值为增加 6.1 点），同 比增幅扩大；出口高频指数为 143.7，前值为 143.7，当周同比增加 2.1 点（前值为增加 2.3 点），同比增幅收窄；消费高频指数为 120.3，前 值为 120.2，当周同比增加 3.3 点（前值为增加 3.2 点），同比增幅扩 大。 物价方面，CPI 月环比预测为 0.1%（前值 0.4%）；P ...

Group 1 - The unexpected drop in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for June, which rose by 2.6% year-on-year, significantly lower than the expected 3%, has been interpreted as a clear signal of cooling inflation [2] - The immediate market reaction included a surge in the S&P 500 index to a historical high, a rise in gold prices exceeding 1.5%, and an increase in the probability of a rate cut in September to over 90% [3] Group 2 - There are three cognitive traps investors may overlook: the transmission from PPI to Consumer Price Index (CPI) is not straightforward, with current core CPI still at 3.8%, far above the 2% target [3][4] - The market has overestimated the rate cut expectations, pricing in 3-4 cuts this year, which exceeds the Federal Reserve's implied 1-2 cuts [3] - The divergence between valuations and earnings is increasing, with the S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio exceeding 21 times, while expected earnings growth for Q2 has dropped to 3.2% [3] Group 3 - Investors are advised to adopt a layered strategy: short-term traders should follow the trend but maintain strict stop-loss orders, while long-term investors should focus on high-certainty value stocks and gradually reduce exposure to overvalued assets [4] - Key upcoming data to watch includes the CPI, which will be crucial in validating the PPI signals [4] - All investors should prepare for two scenarios: if inflation continues to cool, gradually increase holdings in interest-sensitive assets; if inflation shows persistent stickiness, allocate more to defensive assets [4]