The government shutdown in the US was lifted, but US inflation data had not been published yet, so there was not enough bullish sentiment to continue driving markets higher. Markets were rattled on Thursday as investor sentiment abruptly shifted toward caution, sparking a sharp pullback in many of the year’s strongest stocks and intensifying the ongoing decline in cryptocurrencies. The S&P 500 dropped 1.7%, and the Nasdaq 100, dominated by tech names, fell by 2%. Bitcoin had slid below $97, and the senti ...

Market Reaction to U.S. Tariffs - The market's reaction to President Trump's tariff reversal on over 200 food products was muted, attributed to ongoing cost-of-living issues [1][14] - The U.S. dollar index rose slightly to 99.37, despite a broad selloff in U.S. stocks and bonds last week [6][14] Currency Movements - The Swiss franc remained around a one-month high at 0.7941 per dollar, supported by concerns over recent stock market selloffs [2][14] - The euro decreased by 0.11% to $1.1607, while the Australian dollar fell 0.15% to $0.6527, and the New Zealand dollar dropped 0.12% to $0.5673 [5][14] U.S. Economic Data Expectations - There is heightened market interest in upcoming U.S. economic data releases, particularly the September nonfarm payrolls report, due to a data vacuum lasting over 40 days [4][14] - Current market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month have decreased to just over 40%, down from over 60% earlier in the month [6][14] UK Economic Concerns - The British pound traded 0.11% lower at $1.3161, influenced by Finance Minister Rachel Reeves' announcement of no plans to raise income tax rates, which raised concerns about fiscal shortfalls [8][14] - Reeves is expected to need to raise tens of billions of pounds to meet fiscal targets in the upcoming November 26 budget, with financial markets viewing income tax increases as a primary solution [9][14] Japanese Economic Data - Japan's economy contracted an annualized 1.8% in the July-September quarter, marking the first decline in six quarters, primarily due to the impact of U.S. tariffs on exports [11][14]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming quarterly wage price index is critical for determining the likelihood of an interest rate cut in Australia, with a figure below 3.4% potentially reigniting discussions for a cut in the first half of 2026 [1][2][4]. Wage Growth and Interest Rates - The wage price index currently stands at 3.4%, which aligns with market consensus and the Reserve Bank's forecast, indicating limited chances for a rate cut if this figure is maintained [1][6]. - Wage growth peaked in late 2023 at over 4%, but has since moderated to 3.4%, still higher than much of the past decade [6][10]. - A higher wage growth figure would diminish the prospects for an interest rate cut, suggesting that the current cycle of cuts may have reached its bottom [2][6]. Central Bank and Economic Indicators - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained the cash rate target at 3.6% in October due to higher-than-expected consumer price index inflation at 3.2% [8]. - The RBA's recent meeting minutes are expected to reflect a lack of enthusiasm for further rate cuts, as indicated by Governor Michele Bullock [7]. Banking Sector Scrutiny - Upcoming committee hearings in Canberra will question leaders from the big four banks regarding their practices, including interest rates and their impact on customers and employees [9][12]. - The committee aims to address concerns about the banking system's scrutiny and the timing discrepancies between RBA decisions and bank rate adjustments [12][13].

Core Insights - JPMorgan (JPM) is the largest U.S. bank, leveraging its global presence and diversified services, while Truist Financial (TFC) focuses on regional expansion and digital banking [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle presents challenges and opportunities for both banks, necessitating an analysis of their business models [2] JPMorgan Analysis - JPMorgan's balance sheet is highly asset-sensitive, making it vulnerable to rate cuts which could reduce net interest income (NII) [3] - Despite this, JPMorgan anticipates manageable impacts from rate cuts, raising its 2025 NII forecast to $95.8 billion, reflecting nearly 3% year-over-year growth [4] - The bank expects strong client activity and deal flow to enhance non-interest income streams [5] - JPMorgan continues to expand its branch network, opening nearly 150 branches in 2024 and planning to add 500 more by 2027 [6] - Lower interest rates are expected to improve asset quality, with a reduction in the 2025 card charge-off rate to approximately 3.3% [7] Truist Financial Analysis - Truist is less sensitive to interest rate changes and is focusing on strengthening its balance sheet and enhancing non-interest revenue sources [7] - The bank plans to open 100 new branches and renovate over 300 existing locations in high-growth cities over the next five years [8] - Truist is targeting growth in wealth management and expects a recovery in trading and investment banking to boost non-interest income [9] - For Q4 2025, Truist anticipates a nearly 2% sequential increase in NII, driven by loan growth and lower deposit costs [10] - Operating expenses are expected to rise approximately 1% this year as the company invests in branch expansion and technology upgrades [11] Performance Comparison - Year-to-date, JPMorgan shares have increased by 29.1%, while Truist shares have risen by 4.5% [12] - JPMorgan's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 14.89X, compared to Truist's 10.33X, indicating that JPMorgan is more expensive relative to TFC [15][17] - JPMorgan has increased its quarterly dividend by 7% to $1.50 per share, while Truist maintains its dividend at 52 cents per share [17] - JPMorgan's return on equity (ROE) stands at 17.18%, significantly higher than Truist's 8.73%, indicating more efficient use of shareholder funds [20] Growth Prospects - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects JPMorgan's revenue growth of 2.5% and 3.5% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with earnings growth of 2.1% and 3.7% [21] - For Truist, the revenue growth estimates are 2.2% and 5% for 2025 and 2026, with earnings growth of 6.5% and 13.5% [23] - Despite Truist's efforts in branch expansion and digital investments, JPMorgan's financial strength and growth visibility position it as a more compelling long-term investment [28][29]

Market Overview - US stocks experienced a significant decline, marking the steepest sell-off in over a month, driven by diminishing confidence in a December interest-rate cut following a prolonged government shutdown [1][4] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell approximately 1.2%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite dropped around 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, as technology stocks faced pressure after a prior sell-off [1][2] Technology Sector - Tech stocks initially saw a reduction in losses during Friday morning trading, but overall sentiment remained negative, particularly for Tesla, which dropped 1.7% to below $400 following its worst trading day since July [2] - Concerns regarding artificial intelligence have prompted a shift from riskier tech assets to sectors with lower valuations [2] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin fell below $96,000 for the first time in over six months, representing a decline of over 20% from its peak in October [3] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's increasingly hawkish stance has led to reduced expectations for a quarter-point rate cut next month, with traders now estimating less than a 50% chance, down from approximately 95% a month prior [4] - Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari expressed concerns about inflation and noted the resilience of the US economy, contributing to the shift in rate cut expectations [4] Economic Data and Government Shutdown - The recent six-week federal shutdown has left policymakers without clear insights into price pressures and the job market, raising questions about the quality and timing of forthcoming economic data [5]

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 798 points, or 1.7%, marking its worst day in over a month after reaching a record high the previous day [1][5] - The S&P 500 decreased by 1.9%, primarily driven down by Disney's disappointing revenue report, which caused its shares to drop by 8% [1][3] - The tech-heavy Nasdaq declined by 2.3%, as concerns grew over the potential overvaluation of AI stocks, exacerbating a sell-off that began the previous week [2][3] Tech Sector Performance - The "Magnificent Seven" tech firms, which have committed billions to AI initiatives, experienced significant stock declines, with Nvidia, Broadcom, and Tesla falling by 3.6%, 4.3%, and 6.6% respectively [3][6] - Alphabet and Amazon each saw their shares decrease by approximately 3%, while Microsoft shares dipped by 1.6% and Meta remained relatively flat [3] Economic Data and Interest Rate Expectations - The U.S. government reopened after its longest shutdown, which had delayed crucial monthly jobs and inflation data, vital for interest rate expectations [4][6] - The likelihood of a quarter-point interest rate cut dropped to 51.9%, a decrease of over 10% from the previous day, reflecting investor concerns about the lack of economic data [9] - National Economic Council Director indicated that the October jobs report would be released after a delay but would not include the unemployment rate, raising concerns about the Federal Reserve's ability to make informed decisions [7][10]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Neel Kashkari, expressed his opposition to the recent interest-rate cut by the US central bank and remains undecided on the December policy meeting's direction [1][3]. Economic Activity Insights - Kashkari noted that both anecdotal evidence and data indicated a stronger underlying resilience in economic activity than he had anticipated, suggesting a pause in rate cuts during the Fed's October meeting [2]. - He mentioned that subsequent data has shown "more of the same" for the economy, indicating a mixed outlook for the upcoming December rate decision [3]. Federal Reserve Officials' Sentiment - Kashkari's views align with other Federal Reserve officials who have recently shown skepticism regarding the necessity of another rate cut in December, with concerns about labor market weaknesses still prevalent among some policymakers [3][4]. - Financial markets have reacted to the Fed's comments, reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in December to approximately 50%, down from nearly 100% prior to the October meeting [4]. Future Rate Expectations - Following the September rate cut, Kashkari had anticipated two additional reductions in 2025, reflecting his belief that the economy was slowing more significantly at that time [5]. - He highlighted the existence of weaknesses in the labor market, particularly among low-income and sub-prime borrowers, while also noting that many corporate earnings remain strong and optimistic for 2026 [6].

Market Overview - European stocks experienced a decline after initially gaining, as investors await significant economic data following the end of the longest federal government shutdown in U.S. history [1][2] - The pan-European Stoxx 600 index showed a slight increase of 0.11%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 and Germany’s DAX fell by 0.34% and 0.4%, respectively, with France’s CAC 40 gaining 0.69% [3] Company Performance - 3I Group shares dropped nearly 16% despite a significant increase in first-half earnings, with profits rising to £3.287 billion from £2.048 billion year-on-year, and earnings per share increasing to 339.8 pence from 211.6 pence [4] - Several companies, including Aviva and WPP, saw declines of over 4.5%, while Admiral Group, SSE, and Vodafone Group experienced losses between 1% to 2.5% [5] - Endeavour Mining's shares surged by 11.5% due to strong third-quarter performance driven by high gold prices and increased cash generation [5] - Burberry Group reported a narrowed first-half loss before tax of £48 million, improving from a loss of £80 million the previous year [6] - Siemens shares fell by 5.5% after reporting a drop in fourth-quarter earnings, with net income at €1.619 billion compared to €1.900 billion the previous year [7][8] Economic Indicators - Eurozone industrial production rose by 0.2% month-on-month in September 2025, following a 1.1% decline in August, with annual growth at 1.2%, matching the previous month but below the forecast of 2.1% [11] - France's unemployment rate increased to 7.7% in the third quarter, up from a revised 7.6% in the second quarter, while the UK economy grew by 0.1% sequentially, slower than the forecast of 0.2% [12][13]

Market Performance - The benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty ended on a flat note after a three-day rally, with Sensex gaining 12.16 points (0.01%) to close at 84,478.67 and Nifty rising 3.35 points (0.01%) to finish at 25,879.15 [1][3][4] - During the trading session, Sensex reached a high of 84,919.43 and a low of 84,253.05 [3] Sector Performance - Among the gainers in the Sensex pack were Asian Paints, ICICI Bank, PowerGrid, Larsen & Toubro, Bajaj Finserv, Bharti Airtel, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Maruti Suzuki India, Axis Bank, UltraTech Cement, and HCL Technologies [4] - Conversely, laggards included Tata Motors' commercial vehicles arm, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Steel, Bharat Electronics Ltd, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Trent, Tata Consultancy Services, Hindustan Unilever, and Infosys [5] Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment was positively influenced by the signing of a short-term funding bill by Trump to end the US government shutdown and expectations of tariff relief for India [6] - Record-low October inflation figures bolstered expectations for an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), making rate-sensitive sectors like metals and realty attractive to investors [6] Foreign and Domestic Investment - Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers for the third consecutive day, offloading equities worth ₹1,750.03 crore [9] - In contrast, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) continued their buying spree, purchasing stocks worth ₹5,127.12 crore [10] Global Market Context - Asian markets showed positive performance, with indices such as Shanghai's SSE Composite, Hong Kong's Hang Seng, Japan's Nikkei 225, and South Korea's Kospi ending higher [8] - Brent crude oil prices declined by 0.29% to $62.53 per barrel [8]

France's CAC 40 rose to a record high Thursday morning as stocks climbed higher, reacting to U.S. President Donald Trump signing a bill to end the longest government shutdown in history. Expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month contribute as well to market's positive move.The CAC 40 was up 41.45 points or 0.5% at 8,282.69 a few minutes ago.Kering is rising 2.75%, Societe Generale is moving up 2.35% and Credit Agricole is gaining 2%. Carrefour is up nearly 2% after the Saadé fa ...