Economic Indicators - The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will publish the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on February 20, which is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve and could influence monetary policy for 2026 [1] - The PCE Price Index is preferred by the Fed over the Consumer Price Index (CPI) because it provides a broader measure of inflation and quickly reflects changes in consumer behavior [2] Inflation Trends - Recent CPI data showed consumer prices rose 2.4% annually in January, slightly below the expected 2.5%, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) at 2.5%, the lowest since April 2021 [3] - If the upcoming PCE Price Index confirms a moderation in inflation, it would align with the CPI report, indicating inflation is moving closer to the Fed's target [4] Monetary Policy Implications - A confirmation of moderating inflation would give the Fed room to implement additional interest rate cuts, with the futures market currently pricing in two to three quarter-percentage point cuts in 2026 [5] - Lower interest rates or the expectation of them could positively impact the stock market by reducing borrowing costs for companies and consumers, potentially boosting spending [6]

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Market Overview - Asian shares ended mostly higher, supported by easing AI concerns and positive U.S. economic data, despite thin trading volumes due to Lunar New Year holidays in China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan [1] - The dollar remained firm, while gold prices rose above $5,000 an ounce amid reports of potential U.S. military strikes against Iran [2] - Oil prices extended gains after a more than 4% increase on Wednesday [2] Japan - The Nikkei average increased by 0.57% to 57,467.83, and the broader Topix index rose by 1.18% to close at 3,852.09, driven by tech stocks [3] - SoftBank and Tokyo Electron saw gains of 2.6% and 2.9%, respectively, while Advantest fell by 3.6% due to a ransomware cybersecurity incident [3] South Korea - The Kospi average surged by 3.09% to 5,677.25, marking a record high as traders returned from the Lunar New Year holiday [4] - Major semiconductor stocks led the gains, with Samsung Electronics up 4.9%, SK Hynix up 1.6%, and Hyundai Motor up 2.8% [4] Australia - Australian markets reached a four-month high, with the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 jumping 0.88% to 9,086.20, marking a fourth consecutive session of gains [6] - National Australia Bank rose by 2.4% following strong quarterly results, while BHP increased by 1.8% after reporting higher earnings and revenue for the half-year ended December 31, 2025 [6] New Zealand - New Zealand's S&P/NZX-50 index ended up 1.49% at 13,444.20 after a dovish hold from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand [7] U.S. Economic Data - U.S. industrial production growth for January exceeded market expectations, while new orders for manufactured durable goods declined less than expected in December [8] - Housing starts reached a five-month high, contributing to positive sentiment in the tech sector, particularly following Meta's announcement to deploy millions of Nvidia chips [8]

经过改革开放以来的发展，我国已成为世界第二大经济体，金融大国的地位基本确定。我国银行业规模 和外汇储备总量全球第一，债券市场和股票市场的规模全球第二。从国际比较着眼，我国金融体系虽大 却不强。建设金融强国将是十五五乃至更长一个时期的重要任务。中国建设金融强国，必定是以人民币 作为货币基础发展具有中国特色的现代金融体系。未来金融强国建设需要人民币汇率保持合理的水平。 根据权威论述，强大的货币是金融强国必须具备的关键核心金融要素之一。强大的货币是指在国际贸易 投资和外汇市场广泛使用、具有全球储备货币地位的货币。人民币适度强势有利于人民币成为强大的货 币。时至今日，中国不仅已是全球首屈一指的出口大国，出口商品结构明显优化，附加价值明显提升； 还是有着对全球资源、技术和人才持续需求的进口大国。未来一个时期人民币适度强势有助于人民币在 全球贸易中更广泛地使用。人民币的适度强势有助于推动中资企业"走出去"，也有利于国际资本更多地 持有人民币在全球开展投资。持有资产的保值增值是储备的基本战略考量。从结构多元的角度看，随着 中国经济的进一步发展和开放，未来人民币应该在各国外汇储备中占有不断提升的比重。如果人民币能 保持强势， ...

Core Viewpoint - Apollo Global Management's CEO Marc Rowan denies any business or personal relationship with Jeffrey Epstein, amidst ongoing scrutiny related to Epstein's past activities and correspondence with Apollo executives [1]. Company Statements - Apollo stated that neither Marc Rowan nor any other employee, except for Leon Black, had a relationship with Epstein [1]. - The company emphasized that the recent documents do not accuse Apollo or its executives of engaging in or being aware of Epstein's illicit activities [1]. - Apollo's response was prompted by teachers' unions requesting an SEC investigation into what they believe are misleading statements made by Apollo to its investors [1]. Historical Context - Leon Black, a co-founder of Apollo, left the company in early 2021 following a review of his ties to Epstein, which cleared him of wrongdoing [1]. - The review indicated that while Black attempted to introduce Epstein to his co-founders, no one else at Apollo seriously considered hiring Epstein [1]. Recent Developments - New documents reveal correspondence between Rowan's office and Epstein's office regarding at least five scheduled meetings, although it remains unverified if these meetings occurred [1]. - Apollo clarified that in certain instances, Rowan and other employees provided information to Epstein related to tax work for Black [1]. - Apollo stated that Epstein's attempts to work with the co-founders were declined consistently [1]. Broader Implications - The release of Epstein-related documents has led to increased scrutiny of Apollo's top officials, particularly in light of Epstein's past convictions and the ongoing fallout from his death [1]. - The American Federation of Teachers and the American Association of University Professors have expressed concerns regarding the implications of these documents for Apollo's leadership [1].

Are we in the midst of a new bull market in earnings cycle, especially for many of the lagging areas of the index. That was your call in mid-November. Is that a call you still stick to.Yeah. Well, good afternoon. First of all, I would say yes.I mean, you know, the story we actually started writing about in May of last year, which their mid-year update was exactly that. I think, you know, I think our view still remains out of consensus around this idea that Liberation Day marked the end of what we call a rol ...

LCNB Corp. Announces 2026 First-Quarter DividendFeb 18, 2026 4:48 PM Eastern Standard Time# LCNB Corp. Announces 2026 First-Quarter DividendShare---LEBANON, Ohio--([BUSINESS WIRE])--LCNB Corp. (Nasdaq: LCNB) today announced that the Company's Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $0.22 per common share. The common stock cash dividend will have a record date of March 2, 2026, and is payable to shareholders on March 16, 2026.About LCNB Corp.LCNB Corp. is a financial holding company headquartered in L ...

World Liberty Financial (CRYPTO: WLFI) surged 17% as Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) CEO David Solomon and NYSE President Lynn Martin spoke at the inaugural World Liberty Forum at Mar-a-Lago, signaling Wall Street’s embrace of tokenization.The Goldman RevelationSolomon revealed he owns “very little, but some” Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) , describing himself as an observer still trying to understand how it moves. However, he dismissed the idea that traditional banks and crypto are locked in a zero-sum fight.“It’s one syst ...

Core Insights - UBS raised its 2026 US investment grade issuance forecast to $1.8 trillion, citing increased hyperscaler capital expenditure [1] - The bank's US investment grade technology supply estimate increased to $360 billion, reflecting a significant rise in capital spending from major tech companies [1][2] - UBS maintained its forecasts for US high yield, European investment grade, and European high yield, while reducing its US leveraged loan projection [1][3] Investment Grade Issuance - The forecast for US investment grade issuance was increased due to stronger technology issuance and a rise in mergers and acquisitions, indicating a year-on-year growth of 22% [3] - Year-to-date US investment-grade issuance reached $296 billion, which is 31% higher than the previous year, with technology issuance more than doubling as a share of total supply [4] Hyperscaler Capital Expenditure - Aggregate hyperscaler capital expenditure guidance for 2026 rose by approximately $145 billion, leading to an expected public debt issuance increase of $40 billion to $50 billion [2] - Major companies like Amazon, Meta, and Google significantly raised their capital expenditure guidance, driving total projected hyperscaler capex to around $770 billion, which is about 23% higher than previous estimates [2] Leveraged Loans and Defaults - UBS reduced its leveraged loan forecast to $360 billion, citing concerns over artificial intelligence disruption risks being underpriced in loan and private credit markets [3] - The bank anticipates a marginal rise in leveraged loan defaults by roughly 2% and a spread widening to 610 basis points by the end of 2026, which may dampen refinancing and leveraged buyout activity [4] Reverse Yankee Issuance - UBS expects an increase in reverse yankee issuance, where US technology companies issue bonds in currencies like sterling and Swiss francs to diversify funding sources [5] - Despite hedged yields indicating that US dollar funding remains cheaper, particularly for longer maturities, this strategy is seen as a way to access different investor bases [5] Market Absorption and Positioning - The investment-grade market is believed to be able to absorb the additional supply, supported by muted sovereign and emerging market issuance and relatively tight spreads in structured credit [6] - UBS maintains a short position on US investment-grade technology versus the broader index, cautioning that spreads could widen despite strong demand [6]

Renowned economist Mohamed El-Erian has signaled a major structural shift in global finance as China's share of the U.S. Treasury market plummeted to a 15-year low, raising concerns over future demand for American debt. Great Retreat Data shared by El-Erian reveals that China's holdings of U.S. Treasuries now represent just 7% of the total market share—a staggering drop from the 28% peak recorded 15 years ago. The total holdings have fallen to approximately $682.6 billion, the lowest level since 2008. “A ...