The Most Americans Are On Unemployment—Nearly 2 Milllion—Since Pandemic https://t.co/xa4k5sqT0Z ...

The Most Americans Are On Unemployment—Nearly 2 Milllion—Since Pandemichttps://t.co/cZkWTiQvEa https://t.co/D9loBlmELB ...

When we see such a positive jobs report, 147,000 jobs and a lower unemployment level, what is this. What is driving this. Good morning.Thanks for having me. Look, you know, as you said a moment ago, you know, this report was better than 78 out of the 79 forecasts that came into into the Bloomberg consensus range, the Bloomberg forecast. And so what we see is an economy that continues to defy it, continues to defy expectations, continues to defy, you know, all the doom and gloom that's out there, whether it' ...

The numbers are expected to show some impact of trade and chaos in the fiscal space with just 106,000 as the forecast consensus, 95,000 for the whisper number. So Wall Street leaning towards pessimism. Unemployment 4.3%.This would be a case of rounding. When we look out to three digits because barely rounded down to four to last month and it could go as high as four four depending on where we end up. Jobless claims are out today as well, 241,000.That's about where we are right now. So if there's a big chang ...

At the Federal Reserve's most recent meeting, they released their forecast for lower GDP, higher unemployment, and inflation than at the previous meeting. They projected GDP at 1.4%, unemployment to rise to 4.5%. And inflation to reach 3% in 2025.This combination of slowing growth and persistent inflation fits the classic definition of stagflation. A rare economic environment where both joblessness and prices climb at the same time. Now, in past instances of stagflation, it's been an exogenous force that pu ...

And returning now to President Trump's sweeping spending bill and Democratic governor sounding the alarm on the potential impacts of that legislation. Governor Wes Moore of Maryland calls it quote one of the worst bills for working families our country has ever seen. Governor Moore joins us now.Governor, thanks for taking time this morning to talk with us about this. You talk about this as a direct assault on your state by the federal government. As we're watching the way that this bill could change the way ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a base case for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with potential for an earlier cut in July if unemployment rises sharply [6][11][40]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring economic data over the summer months to determine the timing of potential rate cuts, with a consensus forming around the likelihood of cuts resuming in September [5][8]. - Consumer spending has shown significant slowdown, particularly in real services spending, which has implications for economic growth and inflation [10][12][19]. - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.4% in June, with a possibility of reaching 4.5% if job market conditions worsen, which could prompt earlier rate cuts [11][23][40]. Economic Indicators - Services inflation has remained subdued, with core PCE inflation at 0.179% month-over-month, indicating a cooling inflation environment [9][30]. - Real personal spending has stagnated, with a notable decline in both goods and services spending observed in recent months [10][30]. - The housing sector is experiencing weakness, with new home sales declining by 13.7% month-over-month in May, reflecting ongoing challenges in the market [15][18][30]. Labor Market Trends - Initial jobless claims have shown a slight decline, but continuing claims are rising, suggesting a loosening labor market [24][67]. - The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 93.0 in June, indicating growing concerns among consumers regarding the labor market and economic conditions [19][30]. - Average hourly earnings are expected to slow to 0.2% month-over-month, reflecting a weakening labor demand environment [38][39]. Manufacturing and Trade - ISM Manufacturing is expected to remain in contraction, while ISM Services is projected to rebound slightly, indicating modest growth in services activity [60][63]. - The trade balance is anticipated to widen to -$71.7 billion, driven by a drop in exports, which could weigh on GDP growth [57][58].

Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies before the The Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee on “The Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress.” ...

Key expectations M Idea Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Michael T Gapen Chief US Economist Michael.Gapen@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0571 Matthew Hornbach Strategist Matthew.Hornbach@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1837 Jay Bacow Strategist Jay.Bacow@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2647 Sam D Coffin Economist Sam.Coffin@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4630 Diego Anzoategui Economist Diego.Anzoategui@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-8573 Lenoy Dujon US/Canada Economist Lenoy.Dujon@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2779 Heather Berg ...

AI Impact on Workforce - Anthropic 的 CEO 预测，未来 1 到 5 年内，AI 可能会取代一半的白领工作，引发大规模失业和经济困难 [1] - 行业内更乐观的观点认为，AI 将使人类能够完成更多的工作，实现超乎想象的生产力 [2] Productivity and ROI - 目前，一名白领员工产出 3 个单位，总价值 30 万美元，公司投资 10 万美元，投资回报率（ROI）为 200% [3] - 未来，同一名员工在 AI 代理的帮助下，假设管理 3 个代理，每个代理产出 3 个单位，总价值 90 万美元 [4]