Group 1: Treasury Exposure Concerns - China has issued a warning to banks regarding their concentrated exposure to U.S. treasuries, advising them to reduce excessive holdings, particularly not affecting state banks [1][2] - The global ownership of U.S. treasuries is significant, and concerns are rising about the U.S. government's high debt levels and international policies, leading to potential reductions in treasury exposure by foreign investors [3][4] Group 2: Japanese Market Dynamics - The Japanese stock market is experiencing strong performance, with the Nikkei index up by 3.9%, and the yen showing volatility [4] - There is an expectation that Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields will continue to rise, which could positively impact the Japanese economy and sustain the bullish trend in Japanese stocks [7] Group 3: U.S. Economic Outlook - There is a bullish sentiment regarding the U.S. economy, despite concerns about stagflation signals from upcoming inflation and jobs data [8][10] - The current jobs data for January is negative, and inflation is not expected to soften, indicating potential challenges for risk assets in the near term [9][10]

Treasury Yields Snapshot: February 6, 2026ETF Trends is now VettaFi. Read More --The yield on the 10-year note finished February 6, 2026 at 4.22%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.50% and the 30-year note ended at 4.85%.The chart below overlays the daily performance of several Treasury bonds, starting from the pre-recession equity market peaks, along with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007.This next table shows the highs and lows of yields and the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007.## A Long-Term ...

nash] [jennifer nash] [treasury yields] [Vanguard] [vbil] [VGIT] [VGLT]## Earn free CE credits and discover new strategiesLoad More 10-Year Treasury Yield Long-Term Perspective: January 2026ETF Trends is now VettaFi. Read More --This article looks at the 10-year Treasury yield's historical trends since 1962, exploring its relationship with key economic indicators like the Fed Funds Rate (FFR), inflation, and the S&P 500.## Fighting Inflation vs. Stimulating RecoveryThe 10-year Treasury yield has experienced ...

After months of market speculation, President Donald Trump finally announced Kevin Warsh as his nominee to serve as the next chair of the Federal Reserve. Many market watchers, who were concerned that Trump's next pick to lead the Fed may be too prone to influence from the 47th President, view Warsh as a safer choice than other alternative candidates previously discussed. Official White House Photo by Tia Dufour. Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 ...

The yield on the 10-year note finished January 30, 2026 at 4.26%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.52% and the 30-year note ended at 4.87%. The chart below overlays the daily performance of several Treasury bonds, starting from the pre-recession equity market peaks, along with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007. This next table shows the highs and lows of yields and the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007. The 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage The Federal Funds Rate influences the cost of borrowing for ...

As Fed rate decisions days go, this one was relatively mild. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) elected to keep the Fed funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% on Wednesday afternoon, and stock indexes barely flinched at the news. The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) finished the session essentially flat, down 0.01%. However, Fed rate decision days are known as much for Chair Jerome Powell's press conferences as they are for the decision itself, as investors use the opportunity to glean any insights into the economy fro ...

Core Viewpoint - The Justice Department is investigating Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which is perceived as an attempt by the Trump administration to undermine the Federal Reserve's independence, with potential implications for monetary policy and the stock market [9]. Group 1: Investigation and Political Pressure - The Department of Justice served grand jury subpoenas to the Fed, threatening criminal indictments related to Powell's testimony, which Powell claims is a pretext to pressure policymakers into lowering interest rates [1]. - President Trump has openly expressed his desire for lower interest rates and has threatened to sue Powell for incompetence, indicating a push for the Fed to align with his political agenda [2][7]. - Trump attempted to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook over alleged misconduct, which the Supreme Court ruled against, highlighting the legal limitations on removing Fed officials [3]. Group 2: Economic Context and Implications - The severe tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are expected to slow economic growth, and the federal debt has exceeded $38 trillion, making lower interest rates appealing to offset economic weakness and reduce government debt servicing costs [5]. - If the perception of the Fed's independence is compromised, Treasury yields could rise sharply, leading to a potential decline in the stock market [9][10]. - Historically, the S&P 500 has performed poorly when the 10-year Treasury bond yield exceeds 4.5%, with the current yield near 4.2% [14]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Investor Sentiment - The stock market showed slight gains despite the investigation news, indicating some resilience among investors [8]. - Criticism from Wall Street and former officials suggests concern over the implications of political interference in monetary policy, which could lead to increased market volatility and a decline in stock values [6][9]. - The potential for politically motivated monetary policy decisions could lead to unnecessary rate cuts, stimulating short-term growth but worsening inflation in the long run [12].

Group 1: Treasury Yields and Economic Indicators - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.18% as of January 9, 2025, while the 2-year note was at 3.54% and the 30-year note at 4.82% [1] - An inverted yield curve, where longer-term Treasury yields are lower than shorter-term yields, is a reliable leading indicator for recessions, with the 10-2 spread turning negative before recessions [2][3] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average lead time of 18.5 weeks [4][6] Group 2: Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate (FFR) influences borrowing costs for banks, which typically leads to higher mortgage rates when the FFR increases; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite the Fed's rate-cutting cycle starting in September 2024 [7] - The latest Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.16%, marking one of its lowest levels since October 2024 [7] Group 3: Treasury ETFs - ETFs associated with Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [9]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve officials are divided on the extent of interest rate cuts for 2026, with some advocating for steady rates until more data is available on inflation and employment [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Cuts - Fed Governor Stephen Miran is advocating for aggressive interest rate cuts, suggesting a reduction of at least 150 basis points this year to support the labor market [2][3] - Miran describes current monetary policy as restrictive, indicating that underlying inflation is around 2.3%, which allows for further cuts [2] - The Federal Funds Rate currently stands at 3.50% to 3.75%, with a total of 75 basis points cut in 2025 [8] Group 2: Economic Context - There are approximately one million Americans unemployed who could potentially find jobs without triggering unwanted inflation, according to Miran [5] - Fed officials estimate that the long-run neutral rate is between 2.5% and 3%, but can rise to approximately 4.5% to 5% when factoring in inflation [9] - The neutral rate is defined as the interest rate that maintains full employment while keeping inflation stable around the Fed's 2% target [10]

Core Viewpoint - A significant stock market collapse is anticipated, driven by various economic red flags, including canceled corporate deals, banking sector strains, and ongoing stagflation [1] Economic Indicators - Rate cuts are viewed as detrimental, primarily benefiting banks and government debt rather than average households, with expectations of a 40% to 60% decline in equities over time [2][3] - Excessive federal spending is highlighted as a critical issue that could reinforce inflation without aiding ordinary workers [4] Employment Trends - Job data is expected to worsen due to advancements in AI, leading to significant job losses and challenges for displaced workers in finding new employment [5] Corporate Earnings - Companies like Nvidia are accused of inflating earnings through internal spending, raising concerns about valuation amidst a "technical revolution" [6] Market Predictions - A potential move towards universal basic income may arise from reduced earning power in the current economic environment, with significant vulnerabilities noted in U.S. equity benchmarks [7] - A bullish outlook for precious metals is presented, with gold predicted to reach $6,000 and silver above $80 within the next twelve months, driven by persistent inflation [8][9] Market Performance - Skepticism exists regarding the ability of equity markets to sustain recent gains, with historical data suggesting that four consecutive years of double-digit advances are rare [10]