Economic Outlook - The economy is experiencing a K-shaped recovery, with a booming industrial renaissance contrasted by headwinds facing consumers [2] - Recent China news poses a slight headwind to the consumer outlook due to potential upward pressure on prices [5] - Strong growth is observed in red book same store retail sales, restaurant visits, and hotel demand, suggesting the economy is still performing well [10] - A key question for the Fed is whether the slowdown in the labor market is due to slower supply (less immigration) or lower demand [8][9] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The biggest underappreciated risk is that the fight against inflation is not over [15] - There's a risk that the Fed cutting rates due to slowing immigration could lead to more inflation, especially with tariffs and a weaker dollar [11] - The consensus view is that inflation over the next 12 months will be 3%, significantly higher than the Fed's 2% target [14] - Retailers are discussing the impact of tariffs on their costs and pricing strategies [13] Gold Market - Gold prices are rising due to inflation risks, Chinese household buying, and central banks divesting from US treasuries [18][19] - Chinese households are diversifying into gold due to limited investment options [21] - Central banks are price insensitive buyers of gold due to sanctions [20]

Baker Hughes has taken a more than $100 million hit from tariffs this year, in line with its April forecast as Trump’s trade war began https://t.co/B3IZTSMMTL ...

🇺🇸 US TREASURY SECRETARY BESSENT ON CHINA: "100% tariffs doesn't have to happen." ...

IMF and World Bank delegates convening in Washington this week might want to watch a corporate bankruptcy saga that unfolding globally for signs of Trump tariff damage https://t.co/z8q56qmZvR ...

RT Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru)JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇨🇳 President Trump says tariffs on China are "still the plan" for November 1st. ...

Traders return from the weekend after Donald Trump raised the threat of a “massive increase” in tariffs on Chinese goods, which he said would involve an additional 100% levy beginning Nov. 1. https://t.co/CIo4iVkt5q ...

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇨🇳 Vice President JD Vance says President Trump is willing to be a reasonable negotiator with China on tariffs. ...

Already seeing Vance comment on Trumps tariffs threats in a positive way this morning towards ChinaIntelHub (@hubofintel):VANCE: TRUMP WILLING TO BE REASONABLE NEGOTIATOR WITH CHINA*VANCE: TRUMP HOPES US DOESN'T NEED TO USE LEVERAGE ON CHINA*VANCE: WE APPRECIATE FRIENDSHIP TRUMP DEVELOPED WITH CHINA'S XI ...

Especially no tariffs on encrypted bitcoinMichael Saylor (@saylor):No tariffs on Bitcoin ...

When Donald Trump unveiled his “Liberation Day” tariffs, the message was clear: the age of free trade was over. Six months on, has America gained anything? https://t.co/XWm8L5vpEj ...