In times of conflict, investors look for safe havens. But some of the usual ones aren't looking so safe at the moment. Here's why.Like oil tankers in the straight of Hormuz, investors seek out safe ports. Usually that's in the form of gold and US government bonds. But that wasn't really the case in the early aftermath of the US strikes on Iran.Through midday Thursday, gold was actually down more than 3% from the prior week. and US Treasury yields have risen each day since the conflict began. That means the ...

The Federal Reserve is still widely expected to hold interest rates steady when its officials next meet on March 17-18. ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has led to a mixed signal in the market, with institutional investors remaining cautious but not selling off their positions [1] - Despite elevated volatility and recessionary consumer sentiment, major indices like SPY and QQQ have shown minimal year-to-date declines, indicating resilience in the equity markets [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Funds target rate is currently at 3.75%, down from a peak of 4.50%, and has remained unchanged for several months, indicating a persistent policy stance against inflation [1] - Core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, has consistently risen, reaching an index value of 127.92 in December 2025, suggesting ongoing inflationary pressures [1] Group 2: Market Volatility and Investor Sentiment - The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is at 21.15, reflecting elevated uncertainty, having increased by 29.4% over the past month, but still below panic levels seen in April 2025 [1] - Consumer sentiment is at recessionary levels of 56.4 as of January 2026, yet SPY and QQQ have only seen slight declines year-to-date, with SPY down 0.09% and QQQ down 0.88% [1] Group 3: Yield Curve and Bond Market - The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread is at 0.56%, down from a 12-month high of 0.74%, indicating a positive but compressing yield curve, which is a cautionary sign [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield is currently at 4.09%, below its 12-month high of 4.58%, suggesting that bond markets are pricing in less inflation fear than the Fed's current posture indicates [1] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Institutional investors are cautious but not exiting the market, with the flat performance of SPY and QQQ indicating low conviction in either direction [1] - If inflation continues to cool, there is a strong historical case for remaining long on SPY and QQQ, as bond markets appear to align with this outlook [1]

The most important question for energy prices, inflation and interest rates this week is: How long will the Iran war last? Unfortunately, it’s also the hardest question to answer https://t.co/2GZOZUnX3w ...

Czech wage growth unexpectedly accelerated in the fourth quarter, dealing a fresh blow to chances that the central bank will be able to cut interest rates this year https://t.co/0EOuM3eXhE ...

The president's war has obviously disrupted oil prices in their way up over the last couple of days. That means gasoline prices go up. So that means inflation goes up.But the Fed has some experience dealing with this. Right. So I think the question is, obviously, when Russia invaded Ukraine, it sent a commodity shockwave all around the world.And I was on that go back a few years. I was on Team Transitory, which said, hey, I think that this inflation that's coming out of the pandemic won't be that bad and wi ...

Market Overview - The US stock market displayed mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling over 400 points while the Nasdaq remained slightly positive [1][9][22] - The Dow Jones dropped 465 points to 48,274.11, down 0.95%, and the S&P 500 slipped 20.71 points to 6,848.79, down 0.30%, while the Nasdaq Composite edged up to 22,809.53, gaining 2.05 points or 0.01% [22] Geopolitical Impact - The ongoing Middle East conflict involving the US-Israel coalition and Iran has significantly influenced market sentiment, marking the sixth day of military activity with no signs of de-escalation [9][10] - Concerns about disruptions to global trade routes and energy supply chains, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, have heightened investor caution [11][12] Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices surged, with West Texas Intermediate crude trading around $77–$78 per barrel and Brent crude moving above $84, reflecting fears of inflation and potential interest rate hikes [1][13][14] - The rise in oil prices is expected to increase transportation and manufacturing costs, leading to higher inflation expectations [23] Technology Sector Performance - Technology stocks, particularly those in the Nasdaq, showed resilience, with Broadcom (AVGO) surging 4.79% to $332.74 and other firms like Intel and SoFi Technologies also gaining [2][22] - Nvidia (NVDA) faced pressure, slipping around 1% after halting production of its H200 chip for the Chinese market due to regulatory scrutiny [16][23] - Stocks like Trade Desk and Palladyne AI saw significant gains, reflecting strong investor interest in AI-related companies [17][23] Commodity Market Trends - Gold prices dipped slightly to $5,120.50 per ounce, down 0.28%, indicating that markets are not fully pricing in inflation risks despite ongoing geopolitical tensions [3][18] - Silver also edged lower to about $83, down roughly 0.19%, as profit-taking and a strong dollar limited gains [18][23] Sector Analysis - Energy stocks and defense-linked equities typically outperform during periods of rising oil prices and military conflict, while sectors like consumer discretionary and transportation are more vulnerable to energy cost fluctuations [20][23] - The S&P 500 remains near all-time highs, suggesting that the underlying earnings picture is still intact, but further escalation in the Middle East or rising oil prices could alter this outlook [21][22]

Market Performance - The U.S. stock market opened with cautious volatility, with the S&P 500 at 6,865 points, down 0.07%, the Dow Jones down 0.38% or 185 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.25% [1] - The market's tentative start is influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions and fresh labor market data [2] Economic Data - Initial jobless claims for the week ending February 28th were reported at 215,000, slightly up from 212,000, indicating a stabilizing labor market [3] - Preliminary fourth-quarter nonfarm productivity was reported at 1.9%, while unit labor costs rose by 2.0%, suggesting potential wage-push inflation [3] Upcoming Events - Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman is scheduled to speak, and her remarks will be closely monitored for any changes in interest rate policy [4] - The market is anticipating the February Non-Farm Payrolls report, expected to show a gain of approximately 170,000 jobs [4] Corporate Earnings - High-profile earnings reports are expected from Costco, Kroger, and Marvell Technology [5] Stock Movements - Broadcom surged 6.3% following a strong earnings report driven by demand for AI-linked networking chips [6] - SSR Mining jumped 15% after announcing a $1.5 billion deal to sell its stake in the Çöpler mine in Türkiye [6] - Nvidia rose 1.7% to trade near $183, while Tesla gained 3.4% to reach $405.94 [7] - Apple fell 0.47% to $262.52, Microsoft was nearly flat at $405.20, and Alphabet slipped 0.15% to $303.13, while Amazon climbed 3.9% to $216.82 [8] Market Sentiment - The interplay between fluctuating oil prices and Federal Reserve commentary will likely influence market recovery or reinforce a "risk-off" sentiment [9]

Strategic Performance and Market Dynamics - Performance in 2025 was constrained by macroeconomic concerns and sustained high interest rates, impacting new construction demand from non-institutional customers [5] - The R3 (Restore, Rebuild, Replace) segment grew 12.7% in Q4, driven by door replacement and renovation activity for aging facilities [5] - International segment growth of 33.3% in Q4 was attributed to refined product offerings and market share gains, despite lower margins compared to North American operations [5] - The acquisition of Kiwi II Construction aims to provide end-to-end solutions targeting institutional customers on the West Coast and Florida [5] - Commercial market share gains are driven by efforts to secure product specifications in high-growth segments like data centers [5] - Nokē Smart Entry adoption grew 25.5% year-over-year, with a focus on large institutional interest for future scale and margin improvement [5] 2026 Outlook and Strategic Assumptions - The 2026 revenue guidance is set at $940 million to $980 million, assuming no improvement in market conditions and including $90 million to $100 million in inorganic revenue from Kiwi II [5] - North American organic self-storage revenues are expected to decline mid-single digits due to persistent softness in new construction activity [5] - A return to growth in the commercial sales channel is anticipated, driven by the ASTA business and rolling steel door specifications [5] - The 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin midpoint is projected at 18.2%, reflecting anticipated headwinds from geographic mix and initial margin-dilutive impact of Kiwi II integration [5] - Future demand recovery is contingent on housing market mobility and interest rate stabilization, identified as primary catalysts for non-institutional developers [5] Operational Efficiency and Capital Allocation - Achieved a $10 million annual pre-tax cost savings target in 2025 through a formal cost reduction program [5] - Optimized the manufacturing footprint by expanding the Surprise, Arizona facility and consolidating two Houston locations to improve operational efficiency [5] - Executed a 50 basis point repricing of the first lien term loan in February 2026 to lower the cost of capital and enhance financial flexibility [5] - Maintained a disciplined capital allocation strategy, including a $40 million voluntary debt prepayment and $16 million in share repurchases during 2025 [6]

A key gauge that reflects expectations for the future path of UK interest rates has risen to the highest this year, fueling fears over a fresh increase in mortgage costs https://t.co/YJJhMu3DQk ...