Core Performance - Kingdom Capital Advisors achieved a strong recovery in Q3 2025, with a return of 20.78% (net of fees), outperforming the Russell 2000 TR (12.39%), S&P 500 TR (8.12%), and NASDAQ 100 TR (9.01%) [2] - Year-to-date returns through September 30, 2025, show KCA at 8.68%, compared to 7.87% for Russell 2000 TR, 10.39% for S&P 500 TR, and 14.83% for NASDAQ 100 TR [3] Portfolio Contributors and Detractors - Top contributors in Q3 included United Natural Foods (UNFI) and Genesco (GCO), while WW International (WW) was the largest detractor [4][17] Investment Strategy - The portfolio is balanced approximately 50/50 between "special situation" investments and traditional growth positions [6] - Special situation investments are expected to sell undervalued assets within the next twelve months, with potential upsides ranging from 25% to over 100% of current stock prices [7] - Traditional holdings are trading at about 10 times estimated earnings for the coming year, compared to nearly 30 times trailing twelve-month earnings, indicating a focus on undervalued companies [8] Notable Investments - United Natural Foods (UNFI) demonstrated strong performance despite a cyberattack, with management exceeding sales guidance and expecting $300 million in free cash flow for FY26 [13] - Genesco (GCO) saw significant gains after a brief ownership period, benefiting from a tax refund and growth in sales through a revised concept [14] - Apartment Investment and Management Company (AIV) was initiated during Q3, with expectations of cash returns from asset sales [12] Challenges and Outlook - WW International (WW) has faced challenges post-bankruptcy, but there is potential for growth in their clinical business despite market concerns [17] - Magnera Corporation (MAGN) is experiencing stagnant stock prices despite stable business operations, with management taking proactive measures to improve performance [17] - a.k.a. Brands (AKA) continues to show strong sales growth, but stock prices remain low despite management's strong execution [17]

分组1 - JP Morgan Chase plans to invest up to $10 billion over the next 10 years in sectors such as defense, aerospace, AI, quantum computing, energy technology, and advanced manufacturing as part of its security and resiliency initiatives [1] - The bank aims to facilitate $1.5 trillion in funding for companies deemed crucial [1] 分组2 - JP Morgan Chase and other major banks are set to kick off the earnings season, with JP Morgan's stock up 2.5% and other banks like Wells Fargo and Citigroup also showing positive movements [2] - Analysts express optimism for the upcoming earnings season, anticipating an acceleration in loan growth due to decreasing tariff tensions and potential Fed rate cuts [3][4] 分组3 - Expectations for improved credit quality among banks, with many analysts believing that concerns from earlier in the year have not materialized [6] - Consumer spending remains strong despite negative headlines, with actual spending patterns indicating resilience in the consumer sector [10][11] 分组4 - Large banks are expected to report strong fee income, while smaller banks may see improvements in net interest income as loan growth accelerates and deposit costs decrease [15][16] - Capital requirements for banks have decreased, allowing them to lean into loan growth and share buybacks, which could benefit stock performance [17][18]

Market Sentiment and Underlying Conditions - The market experienced a wakeup call, appearing tired beneath the surface for 3-4 weeks prior to Friday's action [1][2] - Market's interpretation suggests conditions are generally in good shape, with cyclical stocks outperforming defensive stocks and benign credit conditions [3][7][8] - The market sold off due to concerns about escalating trade war with China, specifically potential 100% tariffs [6] Key Levels and Future Outlook - 6,400-6,450 is identified as a good support level, with expectations of one more move higher into year-end [4] - Strategus Research Partners is targeting 7,000 for year-end, but anticipates a potentially more defensive tone taking shape in 2026 [5] - Monitoring the 385 basis points level on 10-year Treasury yields as a potential signal of economic weakening [9] Macroeconomic Factors and Policy Impact - Lower oil prices (at $59 and change) and lower rates should act as stimulus, particularly for consumer stocks in the first quarter of 2026 [10][11] - Deregulatory push across industries, including banks and energy, is a significant factor [12] - Financials have been leaders for 2 years; a shift in the broader story would likely involve a weakening of financials [13] Sector Performance and Leadership - Healthcare is starting to inflect, raising questions about whether this will spread to other defensive sectors like staples and REITs [5] - Weakness is observed in private capital stocks (e.g., Apollo, Owl), while money center banks may gain market share due to deregulation [13][14]

Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene signalled that she is considering holding interest rates until at least March next year on concerns that policy is not restrictive enough to squeeze out lingering price pressures https://t.co/TBnjN8MONL ...

markets uh bouncing back after Friday's drop. Joining us now, Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors and Fundstrat Capital CIO. Tom, just summarizing um what your thoughts are this morning.I don't see a whole lot that that has shaken your confidence that the market's headed up. You still see 7,000 on the S&P by year end. You do point out uh it's it's not cheap.Up 36% since the April lows. um you do outline some headwinds, but I think you're outlining more positives than uh than negatives for ...

What would happen if the the US adopted a formal policy of trying to keep interest rates low? Look to Japan, says @allisonschrager, which now has an economy full of zombie companies (via @opinion) https://t.co/NEz8EU760W ...

Economists have largely abandoned forecasts that the SNB will cut interest rates into negative territory, according to a Bloomberg survey https://t.co/JMuBn0jKb5 ...

Kevin Warsh likes to tell a story that explains why he would remake the Federal Reserve from top to bottom if President Donald Trump chooses him to be the central bank's next chair. Trump will soon announce a replacement for current Chair Jerome Powell, and has named Warsh as one of his top candidates for the job. The story goes back to 2006, when Warsh made history by becoming the youngest-ever Fed governor at 35. His age notwithstanding, he had an impeccable pedigree: Stanford University undergrad, a stin ...

All right, Peter, I thought a great place to start the conversation. Let's just let you get your victory lap out of the way. Gold's at an all-time high. Silver's at an all-time high. What is driving the bull run in precious metals? Well, I think what you're seeing is the acceleration of ddollarization that began really a couple of years ago. I think uh what started it in earnest was the Biden sanctions uh against Russia which really was a wake-up call for the rest of the world uh that they need to get get r ...

Why is the labor market weakening. Apollo's Torson Sllock, he took a stab at explaining the slow job growth. There are three reasons why job growth is slow.Lower immigration, AI implementation, and fewer government jobs. So the bottom line, he says, is that the weak labor market is not due to weaker labor demand, but rather to weaker labor supply. So this analysis by Torson is very, very important.Pay attention to it. It highlights three major trends that are unlikely to change in the near term. So that sug ...