Core Insights - ABB Ltd's Motion segment reported revenues of $1.84 billion in Q1 2025, reflecting a 3% year-over-year increase, driven by strong performance in commercial building HVAC, power generation, and water & wastewater markets [1][7] - The operational EBITA for the Motion segment rose 5% year-over-year to $360 million, with an operational EBITA margin increase of 110 basis points to 19.6% due to positive pricing and improved operational efficiency [1][7] - The order backlog for the Motion segment increased to $5.72 billion from $5.61 billion year-over-year, with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.17 [1] Revenue and Orders - Total orders for the Motion segment decreased by 6% year-over-year to $2.16 billion, primarily due to a tough comparison with the previous year, which included a one-time $150 million order [2][7] - Weak demand was noted across various end markets, including oil & gas, food & beverage, chemicals, and rail [2] Market Position and Performance - Despite the decline in orders, the Motion segment is well-positioned for growth in the coming quarters, supported by solid momentum in the service business and a strong backlog level [3] - ABB's shares have gained 8.5% over the past six months, outperforming the industry growth of 3.5% [6] Peer Comparison - Eaton Corporation's eMobility segment reported net sales of $162 million in Q1 2025, up 2% year-over-year, but incurred an operating loss of $4 million due to launch costs [4] - EnerSys' Motive Power segment generated net sales of $392 million in Q4 fiscal 2025, down 0.6% year-over-year, with flat volume growth and a positive price/mix impact of 1% [5] Valuation Metrics - ABB is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 23.17X, slightly above the industry average of 23.12X [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ABB's second-quarter 2025 earnings has declined over the past 60 days, with current estimates at 1.29 for Q2 2025 and 2.43 for the current year [11][12]

Joining us now on the markets and prospects for earnings season, Marta Norton, chief investment strategist at Empower at Good to see you. Thanks on set with us. You have I guess been looking forward to corporate earnings because you think they could be okay and surprise maybe on the upside although tariff concerns remain given the number yesterday that you saw for the CPI when we got it.was to be honest, we we were kind of mixed. It didn't look as bad as as the worst case scenarios, but there looked like so ...

Core Viewpoint - LN's retail sell-through in 2Q25 increased by only 1% YoY, which is weaker than expectations and reflects a challenging competitive landscape for sportswear brands in 1H25 [1][2]. Retail Performance - Overall retail sell-through of LN was up only 1% YoY in 2Q25, with offline retail experiencing a mid-single-digit decline due to sluggish client traffic and a 18% year-to-date decrease in points of sale [2]. - E-commerce performance was also below expectations, with only a mid-single-digit increase YoY, indicating a quarter-over-quarter deterioration [2]. - Retail discounts have steepened as LN attempts to maintain a healthier inventory balance, which stood at 4 months of sales by the end of 2Q [2]. Management Insights - Management noted that sluggish performance continued into 3Q QTD, with weakness persisting after the "618" sales campaign, indicating increased competition among sportswear brands [3]. - It is believed that maintaining the gross profit margin (GPM) at the 2024 level of 49.4% will be challenging due to ongoing pressures [3]. Product-Specific Challenges - Sales of LN's basketball products have declined by over 20% YoY, which is significant as basketball accounted for 21% of retail sales in 2024 [4]. - Although the endorsement of Yang Hansen, a newly drafted Chinese NBA player, could support LN's sales, the overall impact is expected to be limited due to other brands gaining market share through stronger endorsements [4]. Earnings Guidance and Valuation - There is a risk of downward revision in guidance, particularly if LN increases its marketing efforts in 4Q25 in conjunction with its partnership with the Chinese Olympics Committee [5]. - FY25-27E EPS estimates have been lowered by 5-7% due to anticipated weaker GPM and operating deleverage, with the target price adjusted to HK$15.7 based on a 13x adjusted 2025E EPS [6]. Overall Outlook - LN is seen as vulnerable to higher risks of earnings weakness in 2025 and likely into 1H26, although the current valuation is considered fair at low-teens forward P/E and ROE [7]. - The recommendation remains HOLD due to a lack of near-term earnings catalysts [1][7].

Group 1: Company Performance - AngloGold Ashanti's recent trading session ended at $47.46, reflecting a -1.06% change from the previous day's closing price, underperforming compared to the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.4% [1] - The company's shares experienced a loss of 3.44% over the previous month, lagging behind the Basic Materials sector's gain of 2.16% and the S&P 500's gain of 4.97% [1] Group 2: Earnings Forecast - AngloGold Ashanti is projected to report earnings of $1.31 per share, indicating a year-over-year growth of 118.33%, with revenue expected to be $2.32 billion, showing a 67.73% increase compared to the same quarter last year [2] - For the entire year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates forecast earnings of $4.99 per share and revenue of $8.85 billion, representing changes of +125.79% and +52.81%, respectively, compared to the previous year [3] Group 3: Analyst Sentiment - Recent revisions to analyst forecasts for AngloGold Ashanti are important as they reflect changing near-term business trends, with positive estimate revisions indicating analyst optimism about the company's profitability [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), shows that AngloGold Ashanti currently holds a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), with a 1.56% upward shift in the consensus EPS estimate over the past month [6] Group 4: Valuation Metrics - AngloGold Ashanti is currently traded at a Forward P/E ratio of 9.62, which is a discount compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 13.31 [7] - The Mining - Gold industry, part of the Basic Materials sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 15, placing it in the top 7% of over 250 industries [7]

Token Buyback & Revenue Share - Pump 团队已开始在公开市场上回购 $PUMP [1] - $PUMP 持有者根据 180 天的追踪数据，每天获得 538,000 美元的回购（假设 25% 的收入分成）[1] - 相当于每年 1.966 亿美元直接流向代币持有者 [1] Valuation - 当前估值：60 亿美元完全稀释估值 (FDV) / 21.2 亿美元市值 [1] - 市值/收益 (MC/E)：10.78 倍（180 天）[1] - 完全稀释估值/收益 (FDV/E)：30.51 倍（180 天）[1] Peer Comparison - $JUP 的市值/收益 (MC/E) 为 14.17 倍，完全稀释估值/收益 (FDV/E) 为 32.33 倍 [1] - $RAY 的市值/收益 (MC/E) 为 13.09 倍，完全稀释估值/收益 (FDV/E) 为 27.08 倍 [1] - $HYPE 的市值/收益 (MC/E) 为 26.78 倍，完全稀释估值/收益 (FDV/E) 为 80.24 倍 [1] - 对比显示 Pump 的交易价格存在折价 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Montage with a 12-month target price of Rmb106.00, indicating an upside potential of 27.7% from the current price of Rmb83.03 [17][15]. Core Insights - Montage's 2Q25 revenue is expected to grow by 52% year-over-year (YoY) to Rmb1.4 billion, driven by the increasing demand for DDR5 and Gen-3 interface integrated circuits (ICs) [1][4]. - The net income (NI) guidance for 2Q25 is projected to be between Rmb575 million and Rmb675 million, representing a YoY growth of 62% to 90%, which is 18% higher than previous estimates [1][4]. - The company's profitability is improving due to a shift towards higher-margin DDR5 interface ICs and enhanced operating leverage [1][4]. Revenue and Earnings Projections - The report revises earnings estimates upward by 5% for 2025, 3% for 2026, and 3% for 2027, reflecting higher revenues from DDR5 interface ICs and an improved product mix [5][8]. - Revenue projections for Montage are Rmb5.775 billion for 2025, Rmb8.366 billion for 2026, and Rmb10.926 billion for 2027, with corresponding gross profits of Rmb3.489 billion, Rmb5.059 billion, and Rmb6.613 billion respectively [8][17]. Margin Analysis - The report anticipates an increase in gross margin from 60.4% in 2025 to 60.5% in 2027, alongside an improvement in operating margin from 38.9% to 45.1% over the same period [8][9]. - The net margin is expected to rise from 41.4% in 2025 to 43.4% in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [8][9]. Market Dynamics - The strong revenue growth is attributed to the rising penetration of DDR5 interface ICs and the increasing contribution from Gen-2 and Gen-3 products, with expectations that Gen-3 shipments will surpass Gen-2 by 4Q25/1Q26 [4][5]. - The company is set to begin production of Gen-4 DDR5 interface ICs, which are anticipated to offer better pricing and margins [4][5].

Venture Capital Industry Trends - The venture-capital industry is transforming due to the pursuit of higher valuations [1] - This transformation is making a volatile business riskier [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the author's extensive background in finance, particularly in corporate finance, M&A, and investment analysis, with a focus on real estate, renewable energy, and equity markets [1] Group 1: Professional Background - The author holds a Master's degree in Banking & Finance from Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, indicating a strong academic foundation in finance [1] - The author's experience spans over 10 years in investment banking, showcasing a deep understanding of financial markets and investment strategies [1] Group 2: Areas of Expertise - The author specializes in financial modeling, valuation, and qualitative analysis, which are critical skills for assessing investment opportunities [1] - The focus on real estate and renewable energy suggests a strategic interest in sectors that are likely to experience growth and transformation [1] Group 3: Engagement and Goals - The author aims to share insights and analysis on companies of interest with a global audience, indicating a commitment to knowledge sharing and community engagement [1] - There is an emphasis on continuous improvement and informed decision-making, reflecting a proactive approach to investment analysis [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Accelink Technologies is "Sell" with a target price of Rmb24.6, indicating an expected share price return of -46.7% [2][5]. Core Insights - Accelink Technologies expects a net profit growth of 55%-95% YoY for 1H25, with guidance of Rmb323 million to Rmb407 million, driven by strong optical transceiver demand and an improved product mix [1][4]. - The mid-point of the 2Q25 earnings guidance at Rmb215 million is slightly below expectations, suggesting potential downside risk to the share price, which is currently trading at a high valuation of 37x FY25 PE compared to peers at around high-teens [1][5]. - The valuation of Accelink is considered demanding due to lower profitability in the domestic transceiver market and relatively lower earnings growth compared to competitors like Innolight and Eoptolink [1][5]. Summary by Sections Earnings Guidance - For 2Q25, Accelink's net profit guidance is Rmb215 million, a 64% increase from Rmb131 million in 2Q24, while for 1H25, the guidance is Rmb365 million, a 75% increase from Rmb209 million in 1H24 [4]. Valuation - The target price of Rmb24.6 is based on a P/E multiple of 20.0x 2025E EPS, which is one standard deviation below the stock's five-year historical forward PER [5]. Market Capitalization - Accelink Technologies has a market capitalization of Rmb37,228 million (approximately US$5,196 million) [2].

Venture Capital & Startups - Current generation of buzzy start-ups' stratospheric valuations may be overinflated [1] - A venture drought could follow if valuations are overinflated [1]