Core Insights - The potential return to a high-tariff regime in the U.S. has sparked significant alarm among economists and financial experts, with dire predictions about its economic consequences [3][4]. - Despite initial fears, the actual negative impacts of the tariff policies have been mild or nonexistent so far, with various economic indicators showing resilience [4][38]. Inflation Impact - Initial assumptions suggested that tariffs would lead to higher inflation, but the reality is more complex, with tariffs likely causing a one-time price hike rather than ongoing inflation [6][7]. - Tariff revenues for 2026 are projected to be around $300-400 billion, representing only about 1% of total U.S. GDP, akin to a national sales tax increase [7]. - A study indicated that only 17% of the components in the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index are affected by tariffs, suggesting a limited overall impact on inflation [7][8]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-over-year increase but remained below the two-year average, indicating stability in prices despite new tariffs [11][12]. Recession Concerns - Recession forecasts fluctuated significantly in the first half of the year, but by July, sentiment improved, with the S&P 500 achieving 32 new record highs since "Liberation Day" [15][19]. - GDP growth surged at a 3.3% annual pace in the second quarter, and consumer spending showed a year-over-year gain of 4.7%, indicating economic strength [15][17]. - Most economists surveyed have reduced their recession probability forecasts, with only 2 out of 52 seeing an increased risk [16][18]. Treasury Bond Market - Contrary to fears, the U.S. Treasury Bond market has remained stable, with the 10-year Treasury Bond yield lower than on "Liberation Day" and bond prices increasing by almost 6% since the beginning of the year [20][21]. - Investors have shown confidence in U.S. Treasury securities, even as public debt reached $30 trillion, with tariffs projected to generate approximately $3.3 trillion in revenue over the next decade [21]. Dollar Status - Predictions of a weakened dollar and loss of its reserve currency status have not materialized, with the dollar remaining dominant in international trade and finance [22][24]. - The Federal Reserve's report indicated that the dollar's share of international payments is about 50%, showing stability in its global position [25]. Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign ownership of U.S. Treasury bonds has increased since April, with foreign investors returning as significant buyers of U.S. assets [26]. - The trend of foreign investment in U.S. equities and Treasury bonds has intensified, countering initial fears of a mass exodus [26]. Global Trade Dynamics - Concerns about permanent damage to global trade networks due to tariffs have not been realized, with global trade growing by $300 billion in the first half of 2025 [28][29]. - U.S. trade volumes were higher in July than in any month in 2023 or 2024, indicating resilience in trade despite tariff implementations [29][30]. Supply Chain Stability - Initial fears of supply chain disruptions have not come to fruition, with container shipping costs falling and supply chain pressure levels returning to long-term averages [32][34]. - Companies have adapted to potential tariff impacts by improving supply chain management and resilience, mitigating risks associated with tariffs [34]. Corporate Profitability - Contrary to expectations of declining corporate profits due to tariffs, S&P 500 companies reported a 6.4% revenue increase and an 11.9% earnings growth in the second quarter [36][37]. - The majority of U.S. companies exceeded analysts' earnings estimates, indicating strong corporate performance despite tariff concerns [36][37].

♪♪ >>> THIS SUNDAY, TRADE TENSIONS. WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP'S TARIFFS HEADED TO THE SUPREME COURT, A NEW JOBS DATA FUELING DOUBT, WHAT'S NEXT FOR THE U.S. ECONOMY? >> IF YOU TOOK AWAY TARIFFS WE COULD END UP BEING A THIRD WORLD COUNTRY. >> I'LL TALK EXCLUSIVELY TO TREASURY SECRETARY SCOTT BESSENT. PLUS FILE FIGHT. AS CONGRESS RETURNS PRESSURE BUILDS FOR THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION TO RELEASE THE EPSTEIN FILES. >> THIS IS A DEMOCRAT HOAX THAT NEVER ENDS. >> JUST PASS THE VOTE. LISTEN TO US. THIS IS NOT A HOAX. I'L ...

Group 1 - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August CPI inflation data on September 11th, which is significant as it is the last major inflation report before the FOMC meeting on September 17th [1]

Welcome to Meet the Press Now. I'm Kristen Welker in Washington where any minute now we are expecting to hear from President Trump. For the first time since today's jobs report showed a dramatic slowdown in the labor market and potential warning signs for the president's economic agenda.The August jobs report from the Labor Department showed just 22,000 new jobs created last month, much lower than economists were expecting, and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%. Even more problematic, the Labor Depart ...

Just theoretically speaking out loud hereIf job market is bad, worse than they are initially letting onAnd the fear of recession is seriously in playThen wouldn't hard assets that are counter to the dollar increase?Things like crypto + gold?Gold already catching a HUGE bid.But sadly Crypto trading way more in-line with the equities marketWe wanted trad-fi capitalWe didn't want trad-fi pegged prices. ...

Economic Cycles - The economy functions like a machine, driven by short-term and long-term debt cycles [4] - Short-term debt cycles, typically lasting 5 to 8 years, are primarily controlled by the central bank through interest rate adjustments [5] - These cycles involve expansion fueled by credit, leading to inflation, followed by contraction (recession) when the central bank raises interest rates [1][2][3] - Long-term debt cycles occur because debts rise faster than incomes over decades, leading to a debt burden [6] - The ratio of debt to income is called the debt burden, which remains manageable as long as incomes rise [7] Debt and Credit - Spending increases are fueled by credit, which can be created instantly [1] - When credit is easily available, there's an economic expansion; when it's not, there's a recession [4] - Rising incomes and asset values help borrowers remain creditworthy for a long time, even with accumulating debt [8] - At some point, debt repayments grow faster than incomes, forcing people to cut back on spending, leading to a reversal of the cycle [9] - Debt burdens become too big, leading to deleveraging, as seen in 2008 in the United States and Europe [10][11] Inflation and Deflation - Inflation occurs when spending and incomes grow faster than the production of goods, causing prices to rise [1] - The central bank raises interest rates to combat inflation [2] - Deflation occurs when people spend less, causing prices to go down, leading to a recession [3] Human Behavior - People have an inclination to borrow and spend more instead of paying back debt, pushing the economy [5] - Lenders freely extend credit because everyone thinks things are going great, focusing on rising incomes and asset values [6] - People borrow huge amounts of money to buy assets as investments, causing their prices to rise even higher, creating a boom and potentially a bubble [8][7]

As for the broader market, uh, Dow settled into the red early this morning. Bob Doll is with us. Crossmart global CEO and CIO.Bob, it's good to have you. Thanks for joining us in advance of the number tomorrow. We know this is I mean, we always say the jobs number is one of the most important ever, but this could actually determine the the trajectory of rates in the medium term, wouldn't you say.Totally agree. You guys just covered the job situation very well. Look, the Jackson Hole speech was a pivot.it wa ...

While the focus is on a potential government shutdown, my next guest says historically geopolitical risk has actually been conducive to growth, productivity, and asset returns overall. So, it's not a risk, it may actually be an opportunity. Joining me now is Marco Pepic.He's the macro and geopolitical strategist over at BCA Research. Uh, this is a perfect conversation to have right now, Marco, because we've just now heard the update from Megan with regard to trade and tariffs, the update from Emily with reg ...

Macro Environment - The macro environment is currently benign, with stocks at a record high and the economy stable, recession is not expected [1] - Earnings growth has been good and the tariff situation has generally abated [1] - The distress ratio is under 5%, and the amount of bank loans trading under 80 is 4% [2] - Inflation has clearly come down, with ongoing debate about whether it will settle at 2% or 3% [3] Company Performance & Investment Strategy - The company manages $100 billion of capital and invests in hundreds of companies, observing good earnings across the board [2] - The company is not seeing major challenges in pricing, despite tariffs, particularly in the areas where it invests [4][5] - The market has largely absorbed current tariff levels without significant inflationary impact [6] - The company focuses on picking good businesses and credits, rather than relying heavily on maintenance covenants [11][12] Interest Rates & Market Outlook - The forward curve suggests five rate cuts over the next year, though the company considers this potentially aggressive [7] - Long rates, particularly the 10-year and 30-year rates, are key considerations given the size of the deficit [8] - The market is digesting the cost of capital, and current levels are not considered worrisome [8]

So, let's get to Steve Leeman, who is with one of the potential Fed picks, who seemed to have gotten more popular uh as time has been going by and and even before he was mentioned, we had talked about him and and talking about cuts way before that. Uh Chris Waller. Hi, Steve.>> Yes, we had uh Joe and I am joined by Fed Governor Chris Waller, who because he's right here, he's my pick right now. Thanks for joining us, Governor Waller. Um I want to start off with what uh is is among the most interesting things ...