Summary of Jabil (JBL) FY Conference Call - May 13, 2025 Company Overview - **Company**: Jabil (JBL) - **Industry**: Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS) Key Points and Arguments Macro Economic Concerns - There is a sense of relief among customers regarding recession fears, with the administration's efforts seen as effective in preventing a significant downturn [3][5][6] - Jabil's diversified portfolio across various end markets, including healthcare and digital commerce, positions the company well to manage through economic fluctuations [4][5] Supply Chain and Tariff Management - Jabil has regionalized its supply chain, producing in-country for local consumption, which mitigates risks associated with tariff volatility [7][8] - The company is not currently seeing significant shifts in business due to tariffs, as customers are cautious about the costs and risks of relocating operations [8] Capacity and Geographic Flexibility - Approximately 35% to 40% of Jabil's capacity is located in the Americas, with current utilization around 75-80%, indicating room for growth [16][18] - The company has recently opened a facility in St. Petersburg, Florida, and has the capability to expand in the U.S. and Mexico as needed [16][18] Margin Improvement Strategies - Jabil aims to increase its margin from 5.4% to 6% or 6.5% in the near future, driven by portfolio diversification, vertical integration, and operational efficiencies [22][23][24] - The company is focusing on higher-margin businesses and has made tuck-in acquisitions to enhance its service offerings [24][25] Growth in Cloud and Data Center Infrastructure - Jabil has increased its revenue guidance for the second half of the fiscal year by $1 billion, driven by strong demand from hyperscale customers and capital equipment business [28] - The company is confident in continued spending from cloud customers, viewing it as an "arms race" among hyperscalers [28][29] Automotive Sector Challenges - The automotive segment faces headwinds from tariffs and reduced demand for electric vehicles (EVs), but Jabil is diversifying its customer base and product offerings to mitigate risks [44][45] - The company has added new OEM customers in China, which is expected to provide growth opportunities in the EV space [46][48] Healthcare Market Opportunities - Jabil is significantly larger than its nearest competitor in the healthcare market and is focused on expanding its share of wallet through organic growth and acquisitions [56][57] - The company recently acquired Pharmaceutical International Incorporated, enhancing its capabilities in pharmaceutical delivery systems [58] Semiconductor Capital Equipment - Jabil's semiconductor capital equipment business is performing well, with strong growth driven by key customers like NVIDIA [62] - The company anticipates a cyclical recovery in the semiconductor industry within the next twelve months [63] Networking and Communications - The networking segment is experiencing slower growth due to exiting low-margin businesses, but there are positive trends in Ethernet and liquid cooling technologies [65][66] Digital Commerce Growth - Jabil is seeing growth in digital commerce, particularly in automation and robotics for retail environments, with expectations for continued expansion in this area [67][68] Future Outlook - Jabil's path to achieving higher margins is not solely dependent on revenue growth but also on optimizing product mix and operational efficiencies [69][70] - The company is well-positioned for future growth across various sectors, including healthcare, cloud infrastructure, and automotive, despite current economic challenges [49][50][56]

Jamf (JAMF) FY Conference Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Jamf (JAMF) - **Date of Conference**: May 13, 2025 - **Key Speakers**: John Stroessl (CEO), David Rudow (CFO) Industry Insights - **Macro Environment**: There is caution among customers regarding potential recession and elongated sales cycles, impacting procurement and hiring decisions [2][3][4] - **Customer Sentiment**: Customers are exhibiting caution but there is pent-up demand due to previous hesitations in spending [4][10] - **Sales Performance**: Q1 was described as normal with no significant follow-through from a strong Q4, but April results were stable [5][6][7] Financial Performance - **Sales Cycles**: Elongated sales cycles are noted, particularly in the tech sector, with some deals slipping but no significant impact in North America [7][10] - **Geographic Performance**: APAC remains strong, while the Americas showed weaker performance [14][17] - **Vertical Strengths**: Strength observed in healthcare and financial services, with cautious optimism in tech [16][17] Product and Market Strategy - **Product Portfolio**: Jamf offers tailored solutions for K-12 education and enterprise, focusing on device management and security [25][26] - **Android Expansion**: The company is expanding capabilities to support Android devices at customer request, while maintaining a focus on Apple products [29][30] - **Competitive Landscape**: Microsoft is a significant competitor, but Jamf maintains a strong partnership with them, integrating their solutions [36][37] Pricing and Revenue Strategy - **Pricing Strategy**: Jamf does not aim to be the lowest cost provider, focusing instead on the value of their solutions. Annual price increases are now part of their strategy [38][39] - **International Billing**: Introduction of local currency billing to improve competitiveness and win rates in international markets [74][75] Growth and Investment Outlook - **International Growth**: The company is experiencing faster growth outside the U.S., particularly in APAC and EMEA regions [60][68] - **Acquisition Impact**: The acquisition of Identity Automation is expected to contribute $15 million in revenue over three quarters, with a seasonal revenue cadence [84][86] - **Rule of 40 Objective**: The company aims to achieve the Rule of 40 by the end of 2026, prioritizing growth over margin expansion [90][92] Key Risks and Considerations - **Economic Uncertainty**: Potential recession and its impact on customer spending and hiring remain a concern [2][4] - **Sales Dynamics**: Variability in sales performance across different regions and sectors, with some markets showing slower adoption of certain products [71][73] Conclusion - Jamf is navigating a cautious macroeconomic environment while maintaining a focus on growth, product differentiation, and international expansion. The company is strategically positioned to leverage its strong partnerships and customer relationships to drive future growth.

Amid worries over the trade war and signs of a weakening economy, the stock hit an all-time low recently, though GXO had some good news to share with investors when it reported first-quarter earnings last Wednesday. In a difficult macro environment, the company posted better-than-expected results. Organic revenue increased 3%, and overall revenue rose 21% to $2.98 billion, which edged out estimates at $2.93 billion. The reported revenue figure includes its acquisition of Wincanton, a British logistics compa ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies covered. Core Insights - The report highlights the global distribution of enterprise software spending, indicating that the US accounts for approximately 56% of sales, with Western Europe at 23% in CY24, showing minimal change from CY20 [15] - The exposure of software and cloud companies to China is relatively low, with the report suggesting that tariffs or actions on software will not have a significant impact [14][12] - The report expresses concerns about deglobalization, noting that regions like the EU may attempt to promote local software industries through regulations and tariffs [14][12] Summary by Sections Global Exposure of Enterprise Software - Enterprise software spending has remained stable globally from CY20 to CY24, with most companies generating more revenue outside North America [2] - The US market is the largest revenue driver for most companies, except for SAP, which has similar revenue exposure in Western Europe and North America [14][12] Microsoft and Oracle Exposure - Microsoft has a 22% exposure to Western Europe and 11% to Asia/Pacific, with China accounting for only 1.8% of Azure revenue [22][28] - Oracle's global exposure mirrors that of enterprise software, with 21% in Western Europe and 10% in Asia/Pacific [33][35] SAP and Adobe Global Presence - SAP has equal revenue exposure to the US and Western Europe, with 37% in North America and 37% in Western Europe [40][41] - Adobe has become more global over the past four years, with a revenue mix of 56% in North America and 23% in Western Europe by CY24 [42][45] Salesforce and Workday International Growth - Salesforce has increased its international revenue percentage from CY20 to CY24, now at 64% in North America and 20% in Western Europe [46][48] - Workday remains predominantly North American, generating 77% of its revenue in North America in CY24, although it is working to expand its international presence [51][54]

Group 1: Market Overview - J.P. Morgan estimates a 60% chance of a recession in 2025 due to trade wars and tariffs, putting the current bull market at risk [1] - The recent market downturn was influenced by trade wars and uncertainty, leading to corrections in major indexes despite an initial post-election rise [2] Group 2: AbbVie Company Analysis - AbbVie has transformed from relying heavily on Humira, which accounted for 58% of sales in 2019 and peaked at $21 billion in 2022, to a more diversified portfolio [6][9] - The acquisition of Allergan for $63 billion in 2020 significantly reduced reliance on Humira and expanded AbbVie's product offerings [7][9] - AbbVie generated approximately $15 billion in revenue from Allergan products in 2024, showcasing the success of the acquisition [9] - In 2024, AbbVie acquired ImmunoGen and Cerevel Therapeutics for $10 billion and $9 billion, respectively, with the ImmunoGen deal showing promise through its ovarian cancer drug Elahere [10] - Sales from AbbVie's internally developed drugs Skyrizi and Rinvoq reached $17.7 billion in 2024, marking a 51% increase over 2023 [11] Group 3: Financial Performance - AbbVie's first-quarter 2025 earnings showed an 8% revenue growth to $13.3 billion, driven by Skyrizi, Rinvoq, and neuroscience gains [13] - The company raised its sales guidance for 2025 by $700 million to $60 billion, reflecting a 7% increase over 2024 [13] Group 4: Investment Considerations - AbbVie is viewed as a safe investment with a solid dividend yield of 3.5%, having increased its dividend annually since 2013 [14] - Analysts are predominantly bullish on AbbVie, with 17 buy or strong buy ratings and no sell ratings, indicating confidence in the stock's stability [15]

Group 1 - The stock market has shown a recovery in April despite concerns regarding tariffs, chip export restrictions, and recession fears [1] - Automaker Ford has benefited from the stock market rebound [1]

With a recession, either already underway or just around the corner, consumers have pulled back sharply on spending, particularly on big-ticket items like RVs. Tesla ( TSLA ) sales are declining, and even Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN ), despite notWith combined experience of covering technology companies on Wall Street and working in Silicon Valley, and serving as an outside adviser to several seed-round startups, Gary Alexander has exposure to many of the themes shaping the industry today. He has been a regular co ...

Group 1 - The stock market has rebounded sharply from recent lows, but caution is still advised as the economy may be in or approaching a recession [1] - Gary Alexander has extensive experience in covering technology companies and advising startups, providing insights into current industry themes [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of being vigilant despite market rebounds, indicating potential economic challenges ahead [1]

Core Viewpoint - Krispy Kreme's stock dropped 24% following the announcement of a reassessment of its partnership with McDonald's and the withdrawal of its full-year outlook due to economic softness [1][9] Company Performance - Over the past year, Krispy Kreme shares have decreased by more than 70%, resulting in a market value of less than $600 million [2] - The company reported a net loss of $33 million for the quarter ending March 30 [6] - Krispy Kreme has experienced three quarters of net losses in the last year [7] Partnership with McDonald's - The rollout of Krispy Kreme doughnuts in McDonald's locations has been suspended, with no additional launches planned for the second quarter [1] - The initial phases of the partnership showed promise, but sales fell below expectations, prompting the need for intervention to achieve sustainable growth [5] - The two companies had previously announced plans for Krispy Kreme doughnuts to be sold in all McDonald's U.S. locations by the end of 2026, but the rollout began only six months ago [3] Economic Context - McDonald's reported a 3.6% decline in U.S. same-store sales for the first quarter, indicating a broader trend of reduced spending at restaurants among middle- and low-income consumers [4] - The company cited macroeconomic softness and uncertainty regarding the McDonald's partnership schedule as reasons for pulling its 2025 outlook [9] Strategic Adjustments - Krispy Kreme is working with McDonald's to stimulate demand and cut costs by simplifying operations [6] - The company is considering pruning unprofitable locations, which could affect up to 10% of its U.S. network [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2025, the company generated net investment income of $0.67 per share and adjusted net investment income of $0.65 per share, compared to public guidance of approximately $0.66 and $0.64 per share respectively [11] - The company ended the quarter with approximately $3.2 billion of available liquidity [11] - The net asset value per share decreased from $23.64 at the end of Q4 2024 to $23.37 at the end of Q1 2025 [30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company originated approximately $2 billion of new investments during the first quarter, with 45% focused on add-on financings to existing portfolio companies [18] - New investments included approximately 63% in first lien loans, 19% in asset-based finance, and 15% in capital calls to the joint venture [19] - The weighted average yield on accruing debt investments decreased to 10.8% as of March 31, down from 11% at the end of Q4 2024 [28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Approximately 8% of the portfolio could have direct exposure to tariff policies, while low to mid single-digit exposure to DOGE is estimated [15] - Non-accruals represented 3.5% of the portfolio on a cost basis and 2.1% on a fair value basis, showing slight improvement from 3.7% and 2.2% respectively at the end of Q4 2024 [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain a stable income for investors by keeping a consistent distribution strategy, with a declared second quarter distribution of $0.70 per share [11] - The focus remains on upper middle market companies with EBITDA between $50 million and $150 million, which are believed to have more resilience during challenging periods [20] - The company is actively managing exposure to tariffs and has exited two portfolio companies deemed to have higher risks related to tariffs [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management expressed concerns about the worsening economic outlook and increased volatility in debt and equity markets [8] - The expectation is that the macroeconomic environment will stabilize by early next year, providing clearer insights into interest rates and other economic drivers [10] - The management remains cautious about the potential for a recession but believes that the company is well-positioned to navigate the current uncertainties [49] Other Important Information - The company closed on its second middle market CLO, raising $380 million of low-cost secured debt [33] - The management team has amended the Morgan Stanley funding facility, reducing the spread and extending the maturity date [33] Q&A Session Summary Question: Timing of deployments and rate changes impact - Management noted that the origination number was satisfactory and that the decline in rates has mostly flowed through as of the end of Q1 [38][40] Question: Market share and competitive environment - Management indicated that they are gaining market share through diversified origination sources and strong sponsor relationships, although M&A activity has slowed [41][43] Question: Macro group insights on recession odds - The macro group sees a higher likelihood of a recession, albeit potentially muted, and is actively monitoring economic indicators [48] Question: Yield compression expectations - Management acknowledged the potential for additional yield compression as the portfolio churns, with new money yields expected to be lower than previous repayments [50][52] Question: Asset-based financing risks - Management highlighted that consumer-related risks in the asset-based finance portfolio are being monitored, with a focus on secured, high FICO score borrowers [62] Question: Interest coverage trends - Management explained that the lag effect in interest coverage metrics is due to the timing of rate changes and portfolio adjustments [84]