Market Overview & Growth Indicators - HSBC suggests remaining "risk on" for the final four months of the year, indicating a positive outlook on market risk [1] - The US is showing signs of growth reacceleration, particularly in high-frequency indicators like credit card spending and retail sales [2] - High-frequency indicators across labor, consumption, and manufacturing sectors are showing signs of pickup since late June/early July [3] - Expectations for the second half of the year (H2) are low, creating a low bar to surpass [4] Labor Market Analysis - Official labor market data is tricky due to a strong reversal in immigration flows, making it difficult to pinpoint the break-even payroll number [7] - A payroll number around 50,000-70,000 might be enough to keep the unemployment rate steady or even lower, given immigration flow reversals [7] - The focus is on the unemployment rate, which, if steady, suggests the labor market isn't in significant trouble [8][9] Investment Strategy - The rally is expected to broaden out beyond AI and tech, with more economically sensitive sectors starting to participate [5]

Brazil’s economy posted a modest expansion in the second quarter on services and industry, decelerating from the beginning of the year as high interest rates bite into growth https://t.co/cdCWKUitw7 ...

Economic Growth & Political Risks - Thailand's political uncertainty poses risks to economic growth [1] - Major political parties are competing to form a new government [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - Rising odds of steeper interest rate cuts are anticipated [1]

If the faster growth the government promises were at hand, employers might be able to shrug off the extra costs https://t.co/35OB4P5Q4i ...

Blame China, slumping commodities and creaky growth https://t.co/B0Np5NuVB6 ...

So, Yvonne, the South African consumer consumption, we're seeing it steadily up based on some of these charts and the research that you have. Why are we seeing that reflected, though, in the growth story. Yes.So it's good point. We're seeing through some of the proxies, including retail sales, that it's been a return to growth from about a year ago and that's been accelerating. The reason we're not seeing it yet in the GDP numbers is because gross fixed capital formation, which is essentially investment is ...

India has unique strengths to help sustain its current economic growth. But its problems are enormous. Restrictive laws, chronic underemployment and ill-preparedness for mass-urbanisation are among them https://t.co/8C1uLcslHo ...

Geopolitical & Economic Relations - India and China will resume direct flights after more than five years [1] - The resumption aims to rebuild political ties amid rising trade uncertainties between the two largest economies [1]

From @WSJopinion: There’s a subtler warning to voters in the latest alarums about impending crises and IMF bailouts. Government fiscal sanity and economic growth are in your hands. No one will do the heavy lifting for you, writes Joseph Sternberg. https://t.co/PKAsBX1uuZ ...

Mexico’s central bank boosted its economic growth forecast for this year, allaying some fears of stagnation despite a prolonged slowdown and tariff pressures from US President Donald Trump https://t.co/vOBcQOriy4 ...