Chat…UP or DOWN?unusual_whales (@unusual_whales):JUST IN: Uh oh?Fed’s Waller has said: 'I am back on team transitory' regarding inflation ...

Market Reaction to Fed Policies - The market initially reacted to news regarding the Federal Reserve with slight rate increases and dollar softness, but these movements reversed quickly, indicating a strong focus on potential Fed rate cuts [2][3] - The market is closely watching for signals from the Federal Reserve regarding potential rate cuts, particularly focusing on upcoming jobs and inflation data to guide the Fed's direction [5][6] - The bond market presents opportunities for various perspectives: the front end of the curve suggests rate cuts, while the back end reflects concerns about longer-term implications [7] Treasury Supply and Yields - Increased supply of treasuries, coupled with a potentially dovish Fed policy amid uncomfortable inflation levels (above the Fed's target), could lead the bond market to penalize Treasury issuance [9] - While the Treasury Secretary aims to lower the 10-year yield, market forces beyond their control are influencing it [9] - The Federal Reserve could attempt to control the back end of the curve through yield curve control and quantitative easing, but this may not be a great policy when market forces go in the opposite direction [10] Global Bond Market and Diversification - While the UK offers attractive yields, the rest of the world is converging towards the US, and the UK has its own fiscal issues [12][13] - Double Line has started to invest in local currency emerging market bonds, which offer yields around 7% without currency hedging, but with associated risks [14][16] - Developed world interest rates have been highly correlated, with Japan being the primary exception due to its reluctance to hike rates [18][19] BOJ and Global Sovereign Debt - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is known for unpredictable policies and a lack of forward guidance, making Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) less appealing [21] - High global sovereign debt levels and uncontrolled inflation suggest that rates, particularly at the back end, should be at or above current levels [22]

Fed Independence & Monetary Policy - The markets are currently focused on the short run, particularly the upcoming Fed meeting in September, while the long-run economic effects of current events, such as potential higher inflation and long-term bond yields, are being overlooked [2][3][4] - Maintaining an independent monetary policy is crucial because monetary policy affects the economy in the long run, and an independent central bank focuses on long-term price stability and maximum employment goals [4][5] - Concerns exist that the government is pressuring Fed members, escalating from earlier instances like considering firing the chair, potentially undermining Fed independence [5][6] - The public nature and vitriol of the attacks, based on allegations and innuendo without due process, are unprecedented and could lead to the removal of officials based on arbitrary reasons, jeopardizing Fed independence [7][8] - Undermining Fed independence could negatively affect the American economy, households, and businesses, even if policymakers remain unbiased, as the mere perception of political influence can impact markets [9] Political Influence & Board Composition - There is concern about the possibility of a political majority on the Fed board influencing the reappointment of the 12 Federal Reserve presidents, potentially leading to a significant shift in the Fed's composition [10][11][12] - The reappointment process involves an objective performance evaluation by the boards of directors of each reserve bank, but concerns exist that political considerations could override this process [13][14] - In a normal case, Fed governors would not refuse to reappoint someone based on a whim or policy views; there would have to be a substantive issue [15] Lisa Cook & Due Process - Lisa Cook is listening to her legal counsel, and it may not be the right time for her to publicly defend herself [19] - The situation has moved beyond a normal internal investigation process and has become a legal case, circumventing standard procedures [20][21] - If a president can remove someone based on allegations without facts, Fed independence is lost, highlighting the damaging nature of the situation [22]

Tariffs and Trade Policy - Trump's 50% tariff on India, due to its continued purchase of Russian oil, has taken effect [1][10] - A key tariff exemption for international shipments worth $800 or less is expiring, leading to postal service suspensions from at least 20 countries [1] - The expiration of the "de minimis" exemption will result in taxes on previously cheaper, low-value goods imported from overseas, potentially increasing inflation rates [2] - The average tariff rate is well in excess of 15%, the highest since 1934, which is expected to lead to higher prices for consumers and increased inflation [3] - Small business owners face uncertainty due to shifting trade policies, moving manufacturing locations only to be met with new tariffs [11] Inflation and Economic Impact - Inflation is a major concern for consumers, impacting their financial well-being and potentially influencing political outcomes [4][5] - Cutting interest rates when stocks are at an all-time high and the money supply is up 45%, with nearly $7 trillion in money market mutual funds, is an unusual economic environment [12][13] - The economy is still growing, and the unemployment rate is still down, while inflation is moving higher [13] - Increased inflation is expected to follow policies similar to those of Nixon in 1972, as well as authoritarian leaders like Erdogan in Turkey and actions taken in Argentina [23][24] Federal Reserve and Political Influence - There are concerns that Trump is attempting to influence the Federal Reserve for short-term political gains, potentially leading to a surge in equity prices but ultimately backfiring [6][7][8] - Trump is trying to "gerrymander the Fed" by appointing governors who will support his policies, potentially impacting the reappointment of Federal Reserve presidents in various districts [16] - CEOs should be concerned about Trump's attacks on the Federal Reserve, as they can become complicit in the erosion of core American values by remaining silent [16][17][19]

Legal & Ethical Concerns - Lisa Cook面临因涉嫌在两周内为两处房产申请抵押贷款时提供虚假永久居住地声明的指控，这可能构成不当行为 [4] - 总统有权以正当理由解雇联邦储备官员，本案中的理由可能是渎职 [3][6] - 类似的不当行为指控过去曾导致政府官员离职 [5] - 对于与丽莎·库克类似指控的人，可能会面临牢狱之灾、资产没收和赔偿 [11] Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - Lisa Cook 此前曾投票支持维持低利率，导致通货膨胀 [8] - Lisa Cook 被指责在担任美联储理事期间将美联储武器化 [10] Geopolitics & International Trade - 印度对俄罗斯石油的购买行为，尽管享有折扣，但实际上帮助俄罗斯资助了对乌克兰的战争 [17][18] - 印度对俄罗斯石油的购买量约为每天 150 万桶 [21] - 印度被指责在关税问题上不诚实，并且不愿停止购买俄罗斯石油 [16][17] - 如果印度停止购买俄罗斯石油，可能会促使俄乌战争结束 [20] - 印度对进口商品征收高额关税，损害了美国的企业、工人和消费者 [19] - 对印度征收 80% 关税的可能性正在谈判中 [15]

WATCH: Dave Smith tells Joe Rogan how wars fuel inflation. 👇 https://t.co/xnrNKH4JjB ...

Our next guest is a former Fed vice chair. He's now a CNBC contributor. Roger Ferguson joins us now.It's good to see you. Welcome to our show. Thank you.Nice to be here. What do you make of this whole Lisa Cook story. Well, look, I think you put in the right context.This is really a story about trying to undo what has been 90 years of Fed independence. What most people don't know is 90 years ago in 1935 the Congress restructured uh the Fed. It removed uh executive authority, executive branch authority by ta ...

We begin with the latest on the drama surrounding President Trump's decision to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook. The Fed saying it would abide by any court decision on whether the president has the legal authority to make that move. Let's bring in Steve Leeman who spoke with another Fed member this morning, Steve, and uh he offered his thoughts on it.>> Yeah, I'm going to start off with what investors are most focused on, which is interest rates. New York Fed President John Williams in an exclusive CNBC intervi ...

Federal Reserve Independence & Governance - The Federal Reserve's independence is crucial for maintaining low inflation and economic/financial stability, shielding long-term decisions from short-term political pressures [4][5][6] - The structure of the Federal Reserve is designed to ensure independent policy makers make decisions affecting the economy over the longer term [5] - Central bank independence has proven valuable worldwide, leading to better outcomes for countries [6] Economic Outlook - GDP growth slowed to approximately 125% (one and a quarter percent) at an annual rate in the first half of the year, compared to around 250% (two and a half percent) the previous year [9] - The economy is undergoing an adjustment process, partly due to post-pandemic factors and policy changes, including trade policy [10] - The economy is expected to continue growing at an annual rate of 100% to 150% (one to one and a half percent) for the year as a whole, slower than the previous year but still with positive momentum [11] Labor Market Analysis - The labor market is currently solid, with an unemployment rate of 42% (four and two-tenths percent), which is historically low [13] - There has been a slowdown in the pace of hiring and payroll growth, partly due to a slower labor supply caused by reduced immigration [14] - Wage growth remains consistent with a solid labor market and inflation trending towards the 2% goal [19]

Let's get the latest on President Trump's efforts to remove Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve Board. CNBC senior economics reporter Steve Leeman talked about it all day with us. Going to probably talk about it all day today, maybe the the rest of the week as well. We have some news, Leslie. Sources telling CNBC that Fed Governor Lisa Cook could file her lawsuit to overturn her firing by the president as soon as today in DC federal court. But the president saying yesterday he's already counting on having a ...