Core Viewpoint - Climate extremization has become a norm, with global warming leading to intensified rainfall and drought conditions in specific regions, resulting in sudden shifts between drought and flooding [1][3][8]. Group 1: Extreme Weather Events - Recent years have seen a significant increase in extreme weather events globally, with high temperatures, floods, and storms becoming more frequent and intense [5][6]. - In July, the average temperature in Henan Province reached 30.5°C, 3.2°C higher than the historical average, marking the hottest period in 64 years [2]. - Northern China experienced above-average rainfall, with Inner Mongolia recording the highest precipitation for this period since 1961 [2][3]. Group 2: Impact on Agriculture - Extreme weather is adversely affecting major grain-producing areas in China, with high temperatures and heavy rainfall impacting crop growth and increasing irrigation costs [3][14]. - The growth of winter wheat is particularly vulnerable to insufficient low-temperature periods, which can lead to premature ear formation and reduced yields [15]. - High temperatures can cause corn leaves to curl, affecting photosynthesis and increasing water requirements, thus raising irrigation costs for farmers [15]. Group 3: Future Projections and Preparedness - The ongoing climate crisis requires urgent action, with a need for five times the current effort to effectively address climate challenges [11]. - Transitioning to green renewable energy is essential, despite the associated costs, as it presents significant industrial opportunities while mitigating future disaster losses [11]. - The upcoming weather patterns indicate that northern regions may continue to face flooding, while southern areas will experience heightened drought conditions [12]. Group 4: Economic Implications - The volatility of agricultural prices due to extreme weather events is expected to persist, with "weather-related price hikes" becoming more common [16]. - Developing countries may be disproportionately affected by extreme climate events, leading to potential resource conflicts and social instability [17]. - Industries related to agriculture may need to adapt their insurance models and financial tools to better manage the risks associated with climate change [18]. Group 5: Urban Planning and Infrastructure - The concept of sponge cities is being emphasized, but their capacity to handle extreme rainfall is limited, necessitating additional strategies for flood management [19][20]. - Urban planning must evolve to incorporate designs that can effectively manage high temperatures and heavy rainfall, ensuring resilience against climate impacts [18][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the urgent need to address climate change impacts on agriculture, highlighting the vulnerability of small-scale farmers and the necessity for adaptive strategies to mitigate risks associated with extreme weather events [2][5][16]. Group 1: Climate Change Research and Impact - Initial research on climate change in China focused on glaciers, aiming to visually demonstrate the reality of climate change to the public [2]. - The urgency of climate change discussions has increased significantly since 2021, particularly following severe weather events like the 2021 Henan floods, which affected millions and caused substantial economic losses [2][3]. - Extreme weather events have been frequent in 2023, with significant impacts on urban infrastructure and agriculture, indicating a direct correlation between climate change and daily life [4][6]. Group 2: Agricultural Vulnerability and Adaptation - Agriculture, being highly dependent on natural resources, is among the first sectors to face challenges from climate change, necessitating a focus on smallholder farmers who are often the most vulnerable [4][5]. - Research indicates that small farmers are reluctant to abandon their land despite increasing climate risks, relying on traditional practices and community support to adapt [4][8]. - The study highlights the need for a robust protective framework to enhance the resilience of agricultural stakeholders against climate change [5][10]. Group 3: Policy and Community Support - The article discusses the evolution of policy regarding disaster prevention and climate adaptation, emphasizing the need for improved meteorological services and community support for farmers [11][14]. - Successful examples of community support networks have emerged, where agricultural cooperatives collaborate to share resources and mitigate climate risks [12][13]. - The report suggests that effective climate resilience requires a multi-faceted approach, integrating policy support, technological innovation, and local knowledge [14][18]. Group 4: Future Directions and Recommendations - The article calls for enhanced research on regional climate change impacts, particularly in sensitive agricultural areas, to inform long-term adaptation strategies [10][18]. - It stresses the importance of integrating climate adaptation planning with national strategies to secure funding and reduce adaptation costs for farmers [18][19]. - The urgency of addressing climate change is underscored, with a call for prioritizing climate action to prevent further losses and damages [19].

Core Viewpoint - The extreme heat in Japan this summer is exacerbating the ongoing rice crisis, with significant price increases expected due to adverse weather conditions affecting crop yields [3][4][7]. Weather Impact - July 2023 was the hottest month on record in Japan, with an average temperature 2.89 degrees Celsius above normal, and multiple locations recording temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius [4][5]. - The extreme heat has led to increased instances of heat-related illnesses, with a rising number of deaths attributed to heatstroke over recent years [5]. Rice Price Trends - The price of rice in Japan has surged, with a 5-kilogram bag reaching prices between 4268 and 4285 yen (approximately 213 to 214 RMB), more than double the price from the previous year [7]. - Despite a recent decline in average rice prices to 3432 yen (approximately 166.43 RMB) per 5 kilograms, prices remain elevated compared to previous years [8]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Japan's rice demand for the year was 711 million tons, exceeding previous government forecasts by 380,000 tons, while the projected rice production for 2024 is only 679 million tons, indicating a persistent supply-demand imbalance [8]. - The Japanese government has released 360,000 tons of reserve rice to stabilize prices, selling it at half the current market price [7]. Economic Implications - The Bank of Japan has raised its inflation forecast, with core consumer price index (CPI) expected to reach 2.7% by March 2026, driven largely by rising food prices, particularly rice [9]. - The persistent inflationary pressure is prompting the Bank of Japan to reconsider its monetary policy to mitigate the economic impact of rising prices [9].

Core Viewpoint - Japan experienced record high temperatures in July, with the highest temperature reaching 41.2 degrees Celsius, indicating a trend of extreme weather impacting food prices and overall inflation globally [1] Weather Impact on Food Prices - Extreme weather conditions are driving up the prices of essential food items globally, with a notable increase in prices due to heatwaves [1] - In 2024, a heatwave in East Asia is projected to cause a 70% year-on-year increase in cabbage prices in South Korea and a 48% increase in Japan [1] Economic Implications - The rise in food prices due to extreme weather is expected to exacerbate overall inflation, posing a variable impact on the global economy [1]

Core Insights - Japan is experiencing a severe rice crisis exacerbated by extreme heat, with rice prices rising by 48% year-on-year due to the heatwave affecting crop yields [1][6] - July 2023 marked the hottest July on record in Japan, with an average temperature 2.89 degrees Celsius above normal, leading to widespread heat warnings [3][5] - The extreme weather conditions are contributing to inflationary pressures, with the Bank of Japan adjusting its inflation forecasts upward due to rising food prices, particularly rice [8] Weather Impact - The Japan Meteorological Agency reported record high temperatures, with some areas exceeding 41 degrees Celsius, leading to increased instances of heat-related illnesses and deaths [3][4] - The early end of the rainy season and the "heat dome" phenomenon are identified as key factors contributing to the extreme heat [5] Agricultural Consequences - The heatwave has severely impacted rice-growing regions, leading to water shortages and affecting crop growth, with reports of farmers struggling to cultivate crops like azuki beans [6] - The average price of rice in Japan has surged, with a 5-kilogram bag reaching prices between 4268 and 4285 yen, more than double the previous year's price [6] Market Dynamics - Despite a temporary decline in rice prices, the overall demand for rice in Japan has exceeded government forecasts, leading to a continuous supply-demand imbalance [7] - The Japanese government has released 360,000 tons of reserve rice to stabilize prices, but the market remains volatile [6][7] Economic Implications - Rising food prices, particularly rice, are becoming a significant driver of inflation in Japan, with the core consumer price index (CPI) expected to rise to 2.7% by March 2026 [8] - The Bank of Japan is reassessing its monetary policy in light of persistent inflation pressures, which are being fueled by soaring food prices [8]

Group 1 - The article discusses the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as prolonged rainfall and heatwaves, attributed to global climate change [1][16][17] - Beijing experienced its longest recorded rainfall event lasting 147 hours, highlighting the severity of recent weather patterns [6][14] - The Central Meteorological Administration issued multiple weather warnings, indicating widespread heavy rainfall and potential severe weather across various regions [3][5] Group 2 - The challenges of accurately predicting extreme precipitation events are emphasized, particularly due to the unpredictable nature of small-scale convective systems [7][8] - The article notes that the warming atmosphere increases its capacity to hold moisture, leading to more intense rainfall events [9][18] - The T8 atmospheric circulation pattern is identified as a significant contributor to summer rainfall in northern China, with historical data showing its correlation with extreme precipitation events [10][12][13] Group 3 - The need for improved public engagement in weather forecasting and disaster preparedness is highlighted, suggesting that community involvement can enhance the effectiveness of early warning systems [19][20][22] - The article stresses the importance of interdisciplinary approaches to address the complexities of extreme weather forecasting and response [22] - The impact of extreme weather, such as hailstorms, on agriculture and infrastructure is discussed, indicating a need for better predictive capabilities [23][25]

Core Viewpoint - Japan is facing a severe water shortage due to prolonged high temperatures and reduced rainfall, impacting agricultural production and prompting government intervention [1][2]. Group 1: Weather Conditions - Japan has experienced record high temperatures, with many areas exceeding 40 degrees Celsius [1]. - Rainfall in regions such as Ishikawa Prefecture has dropped significantly, with Kanazawa City recording only 1% of the average rainfall for July [1]. Group 2: Water Resource Status - As of July 31, 33 reservoirs managed by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism are below average water levels, with two reservoirs in Iwate and Miyagi Prefectures completely depleted [2]. - A major river in Myoko City, Niigata Prefecture, has dried up due to lack of rainfall [2]. Group 3: Agricultural Impact - Key rice-producing areas like Fukui, Niigata, and Nagano Prefectures are experiencing severe water shortages, adversely affecting rice growth [2]. - The ongoing extreme weather conditions are expected to reduce milk production and decrease the size of eggs [2]. Group 4: Government Response - The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries has established a "Water Shortage and High Temperature Response Headquarters" to address the crisis and promote water conservation measures [2]. - The Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Koizumi Shinjiro, emphasized the need for effective water resource management to mitigate the impact on crops [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment is bearish, with significant declines in commodities and the futures market showing weak oscillations and high volatility. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set. Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the trading environment is complex, and it is advised to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Shipping Index - On July 28, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% from the previous period [2]. - On July 25, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1110.57 points, down 3.26% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1422.9 points, down 1.20% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1120.51 points, down 5.19% from the previous period [2]. - On July 25, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1592.59 points, down 54.31 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 2090 USD/TEU, up 0.53% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 2067 USD/FEU, down 3.50% from the previous period [2]. - On July 25, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1261.35 points, down 3.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1787.24 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 880.99 points, down 6.4% from the previous period [2]. 3.2 Economic Data - In the Eurozone in June, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 49.4 (expected 49.8, previous 49.4), the preliminary services PMI was 50 (a 2 - month high, expected 50, previous 49.7), the preliminary composite PMI was 50.2 (expected 50.5, previous 50.2), and the Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 (expected - 6, previous - 8.1) [2]. - In June, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, and the same as in April, returning above the critical point [2]. - In the US in June, the preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI was 52 (the same as in May, higher than the expected 51, the highest since February); the preliminary services PMI was 53.1 (lower than the previous 53.7, higher than the expected 52.9, a two - month low); the preliminary composite PMI was 52.8 (lower than the previous 53, higher than the expected 52.1, a two - month low) [2]. 3.3 Market News - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, which further hit re - export trade. Some shipping companies announced price increases. The Trump administration postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. The spot market price range has been set, with small price increases to test the market, and the futures market rebounded slightly [3]. - On July 31, the main contract 2510 closed at 1425.1, down 4.66%, with a trading volume of 46,300 lots and an open interest of 51,800 lots, a decrease of 3056 lots from the previous day [3]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term futures market may mainly rebound. Risk - takers were advised to go long lightly on the 2510 contract below 1300 (with a profit margin of over 300 points), and partially take profits; they were also advised to go short lightly on the EC2512 contract, pay attention to the subsequent market trend, not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive spread structure with high volatility. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with light positions [4]. - Long - term strategy: For all contracts, it was recommended to take profits when prices rose, wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [4]. 3.5 Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was set at 100 lots [4].

为何"安全冗余"常常被轻视？一方面，其成本与收益存在"时空错位"。"安全冗余"的建设需要前期大量 投入，但收益往往体现在"未发生的事故"中，这种"看不见的回报"易被忽视。例如，在城市建设中预留 防洪通道、加固地下管网，短期看似"无用"，但在暴雨来袭时却能避免"城市瘫痪"。另一方面，侥幸心 理与麻痹思维作祟。人们总倾向相信"灾害不会发生在我身上"，制度执行不严、巡检流于形式、演练走 个过场，最终让冗余防线形同虚设。而每一次"省事"与"侥幸"，都是为灾难埋下的伏笔。 日前召开的中央城市工作会议，提出"着力建设安全可靠的韧性城市"。城市韧性，显然要以相当的"冗 余"为基石，为每一次"不可能发生的灾难"做好备选方案。必须承认，在有限人力与极短时间的现实约 束下，很难做到面面俱到。如何减少漏洞提升冗余？靠的是平时深耕细节、强化过程管控、前置风险预 判。在规划层面，应充分考虑极端天气因素，不能只着眼于当下的需求，更要为未来可能出现的极端情 况预留足够的安全空间，例如建设足够的应急避难场所、在城市周边建设大型防洪堤和蓄洪区等。管理 者需摒弃"差不多"心态，以"宁可备而无用，不可用而无备"的态度，将冗余理念融入每项决策；公众 ...

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