据新华社电 欧洲正经历新一轮热浪，多地气温12日突破40摄氏度。西班牙、葡萄牙、希腊、土耳其和 巴尔干半岛等地山火持续，高温与火灾已造成至少4人死亡，数千人被迫撤离，不少旅游胜地遭到破 坏。 西班牙、德国、意大利和法国多地发布高温预警。据西班牙国家气象局数据，西班牙部分地区最高气温 达44摄氏度。高温叠加多风少雨等因素，火灾风险加剧。 在西班牙首都马德里市郊，大火烧毁一处马厩致一名男子死亡，并蔓延到附近多座农场和民宅。在加泰 罗尼亚自治区，一名61岁的匈牙利籍劳工干农活时身亡，死因疑与高温天气有关。卡斯蒂利亚-莱昂自 治区12日仍有32处火点，超过1200名消防员加入灭火，数以千计居民被要求疏散。 葡萄牙北部野火持续，超过1300名消防员和16架飞机投入灭火。其中一处野火已燃烧10天。 土耳其西北部、阿尔巴尼亚和黑山同样报告大规模火灾，浓烟笼罩多个城镇。阿尔巴尼亚一名男子死于 火灾，黑山一名士兵执行救灾任务时因运水车侧翻身亡。希腊多处旅游胜地也因野火紧急疏散游客。 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that extreme weather events are becoming a norm due to climate change, with significant impacts on agriculture, urban operations, and daily life [3][4][6] - The average temperature in Henan province reached 30.5°C in July, which is 3.2°C higher than the historical average, marking the hottest period in 64 years [1][2] - The article highlights the urgent need for scientific understanding and effective responses to climate change challenges, as the current preparations are insufficient [11][12] Group 2 - The frequency of extreme weather events has increased significantly, with a notable rise in climate-related disasters over the past two decades [4][6] - The article discusses the dual impact of global warming, leading to more severe droughts and floods, which poses a threat to major grain-producing areas in China [3][8][16] - The agricultural sector is facing challenges such as increased irrigation costs and crop growth disruptions due to extreme temperatures [17][19] Group 3 - The article suggests that the transition to green energy is essential, requiring five times the current efforts to mitigate future disaster losses [12][13] - It points out that the agricultural infrastructure needs significant upgrades to adapt to extreme weather, including improved irrigation and drainage systems [20] - The potential for "weather-related price hikes" in agricultural products is highlighted, with extreme weather already causing fluctuations in global commodity prices [21][22] Group 4 - The article indicates that extreme weather will increasingly affect various industries, necessitating new financial tools for agricultural insurance [23] - It mentions that sectors like renewable energy and urban planning must adapt to the challenges posed by extreme weather events [24][25] - The need for a long-term strategy to combat climate change is emphasized, with a focus on adhering to national carbon neutrality goals [26]

气候极端化已经成为一种常态。现在的研究表明，全球变暖会 带来一个效应——涝的更涝，旱的更旱。即短期内，一定区域 内的降雨强度更高或高温干旱十分严重，甚至出现短期内的旱 涝急转。 作者：冯雨欣 田进 封图：图虫创意 近几年，全球极端天气事件频发，极端气候正在以肉眼可见的方式侵入现实生活。 今年夏天，国内不同地区出现的暴雨、洪涝、高温等天气，对人们的生产生活产生重大影响，引发 了社会各界的关注。7月以来，河南省平均气温达30.5℃（摄氏度），较常年异常偏高3.2℃，为64 年来同期最热。截至8月2日，未来几天中东部将呈现"雨—热—雨"的天气格局，陕西南部、四川 东部、重庆、湖北西部等部分地区气温将突破40℃；而在高压系统南北两侧，广东、广西等地则迎 来暴雨天气。 在刚刚过去的7月，我国北方大部降雨量较常年同期偏多，共有5轮暴雨过程轮番影响。截至7月31 日，内蒙古降水量为1961年以来历史同期最多，北京为同期第二多。 随着极端天气对农业生产、城市运行、民众生活等诸多方面的冲击不断显现，如何科学认识气候变 化趋势、有效应对其带来的挑战，已成为亟待解答的重要课题。 8月3日，经济观察报专访了中国科学院大气物理研究所季 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the urgent need to address climate change impacts on agriculture, highlighting the vulnerability of small-scale farmers and the necessity for adaptive strategies to mitigate risks associated with extreme weather events [2][5][16]. Group 1: Climate Change Research and Impact - Initial research on climate change in China focused on glaciers, aiming to visually demonstrate the reality of climate change to the public [2]. - The urgency of climate change discussions has increased significantly since 2021, particularly following severe weather events like the 2021 Henan floods, which affected millions and caused substantial economic losses [2][3]. - Extreme weather events have been frequent in 2023, with significant impacts on urban infrastructure and agriculture, indicating a direct correlation between climate change and daily life [4][6]. Group 2: Agricultural Vulnerability and Adaptation - Agriculture, being highly dependent on natural resources, is among the first sectors to face challenges from climate change, necessitating a focus on smallholder farmers who are often the most vulnerable [4][5]. - Research indicates that small farmers are reluctant to abandon their land despite increasing climate risks, relying on traditional practices and community support to adapt [4][8]. - The study highlights the need for a robust protective framework to enhance the resilience of agricultural stakeholders against climate change [5][10]. Group 3: Policy and Community Support - The article discusses the evolution of policy regarding disaster prevention and climate adaptation, emphasizing the need for improved meteorological services and community support for farmers [11][14]. - Successful examples of community support networks have emerged, where agricultural cooperatives collaborate to share resources and mitigate climate risks [12][13]. - The report suggests that effective climate resilience requires a multi-faceted approach, integrating policy support, technological innovation, and local knowledge [14][18]. Group 4: Future Directions and Recommendations - The article calls for enhanced research on regional climate change impacts, particularly in sensitive agricultural areas, to inform long-term adaptation strategies [10][18]. - It stresses the importance of integrating climate adaptation planning with national strategies to secure funding and reduce adaptation costs for farmers [18][19]. - The urgency of addressing climate change is underscored, with a call for prioritizing climate action to prevent further losses and damages [19].

2025.08. 03 本文字数：2101，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一 财经 潘寅茹 今夏酷暑，将如何影响日本当前的大米危机？ 刚刚过去的7月，日本"高烧不断"。日本气象厅数据显示，尤其是7月30日这天，西部兵库县丹波市 最高气温达到41.2摄氏度，创日本高温新纪录。另有至少三地当天的气温达到或超过40摄氏度，多 地达到或超过39摄氏度。 发表在《环境研究快报》上的最新研究显示，极端天气正在推高全球许多基本食品的价格，并带来更 广泛的社会风险。其中，2024年席卷东亚的热浪导致韩国白菜价格同比上涨70%，日本大米价格上 涨48%等。该研究警示，极端天气条件推高食品价格，从而加剧整体通胀，对全球经济影响产生变 数。 连续三年"最热7月" 日本气象厅数据8月1日发布的"7月天气总结"显示，刚刚过去的7月，日本的平均气温创下了1898 年统计以来的最高纪录。目前，日本已连续第三年出现"最热7月"，今年7月的平均气温高出正常水 平2.89摄氏度。 这个7月日本有多热？7月30日当天，日本全境914处观测点中，271处录得的气温超过35摄氏度； 39处刷新高温纪录。此前，日本夏季单日气温的极值出现于2020年8 ...

刚刚过去的7月，日本"高烧不断"。日本气象厅数据显示，尤其是7月30日这天，西部兵库县丹波市最高 气温达到41.2摄氏度，创日本高温新纪录。另有至少三地当天的气温达到或超过40摄氏度，多地达到或 超过39摄氏度。发表在《环境研究快报》上的最新研究显示，极端天气正在推高全球许多基本食品的价 格，并带来更广泛的社会风险。其中，2024年席卷东亚的热浪导致韩国白菜价格同比上涨70%，日本价 格上涨48%等。该研究警示，极端天气条件推高食品价格，从而加剧整体通胀，对全球经济影响产生变 数。(第一财经) ...

今夏酷暑，将如何影响日本当前的大米危机？ 刚刚过去的7月，日本"高烧不断"。日本气象厅数据显示，尤其是7月30日这天，西部兵库县丹波市最高 气温达到41.2摄氏度，创日本高温新纪录。另有至少三地当天的气温达到或超过40摄氏度，多地达到或 超过39摄氏度。 发表在《环境研究快报》上的最新研究显示，极端天气正在推高全球许多基本食品的价格，并带来更广 泛的社会风险。其中，2024年席卷东亚的热浪导致韩国白菜价格同比上涨70%，日本大米价格上涨48% 等。该研究警示，极端天气条件推高食品价格，从而加剧整体通胀，对全球经济影响产生变数。 日本气象学者分析认为，日本7月热浪频现背后，有诸多原因。比如，今年的梅雨季创纪录地提早结 束，使得海水升温显著；其次，由于日本的地理位置，"热穹顶"现象把热浪牢牢锁在日本的街头巷尾。 有日本气象学者警告称。如果气候变异的现象得不到改善，未来日本可能只剩"冬夏"两季了。 8月，日本气象厅预计，除了冲绳县和西南部的奄美群岛，日本各地的气温预计依旧将保持在"正常水 平"以上。 米价会再度走高吗 频现的热浪对日本农作物的生长再度形成考验的考验，尤其是当前备受关注的大米。由于高温少雨，福 井县、 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as prolonged rainfall and heatwaves, attributed to global climate change [1][16][17] - Beijing experienced its longest recorded rainfall event lasting 147 hours, highlighting the severity of recent weather patterns [6][14] - The Central Meteorological Administration issued multiple weather warnings, indicating widespread heavy rainfall and potential severe weather across various regions [3][5] Group 2 - The challenges of accurately predicting extreme precipitation events are emphasized, particularly due to the unpredictable nature of small-scale convective systems [7][8] - The article notes that the warming atmosphere increases its capacity to hold moisture, leading to more intense rainfall events [9][18] - The T8 atmospheric circulation pattern is identified as a significant contributor to summer rainfall in northern China, with historical data showing its correlation with extreme precipitation events [10][12][13] Group 3 - The need for improved public engagement in weather forecasting and disaster preparedness is highlighted, suggesting that community involvement can enhance the effectiveness of early warning systems [19][20][22] - The article stresses the importance of interdisciplinary approaches to address the complexities of extreme weather forecasting and response [22] - The impact of extreme weather, such as hailstorms, on agriculture and infrastructure is discussed, indicating a need for better predictive capabilities [23][25]

Core Viewpoint - Japan is facing a severe water shortage due to prolonged high temperatures and reduced rainfall, impacting agricultural production and prompting government intervention [1][2]. Group 1: Weather Conditions - Japan has experienced record high temperatures, with many areas exceeding 40 degrees Celsius [1]. - Rainfall in regions such as Ishikawa Prefecture has dropped significantly, with Kanazawa City recording only 1% of the average rainfall for July [1]. Group 2: Water Resource Status - As of July 31, 33 reservoirs managed by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism are below average water levels, with two reservoirs in Iwate and Miyagi Prefectures completely depleted [2]. - A major river in Myoko City, Niigata Prefecture, has dried up due to lack of rainfall [2]. Group 3: Agricultural Impact - Key rice-producing areas like Fukui, Niigata, and Nagano Prefectures are experiencing severe water shortages, adversely affecting rice growth [2]. - The ongoing extreme weather conditions are expected to reduce milk production and decrease the size of eggs [2]. Group 4: Government Response - The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries has established a "Water Shortage and High Temperature Response Headquarters" to address the crisis and promote water conservation measures [2]. - The Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Koizumi Shinjiro, emphasized the need for effective water resource management to mitigate the impact on crops [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment is bearish, with significant declines in commodities and the futures market showing weak oscillations and high volatility. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set. Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the trading environment is complex, and it is advised to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Shipping Index - On July 28, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% from the previous period [2]. - On July 25, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1110.57 points, down 3.26% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1422.9 points, down 1.20% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1120.51 points, down 5.19% from the previous period [2]. - On July 25, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1592.59 points, down 54.31 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 2090 USD/TEU, up 0.53% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 2067 USD/FEU, down 3.50% from the previous period [2]. - On July 25, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1261.35 points, down 3.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1787.24 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 880.99 points, down 6.4% from the previous period [2]. 3.2 Economic Data - In the Eurozone in June, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 49.4 (expected 49.8, previous 49.4), the preliminary services PMI was 50 (a 2 - month high, expected 50, previous 49.7), the preliminary composite PMI was 50.2 (expected 50.5, previous 50.2), and the Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 (expected - 6, previous - 8.1) [2]. - In June, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, and the same as in April, returning above the critical point [2]. - In the US in June, the preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI was 52 (the same as in May, higher than the expected 51, the highest since February); the preliminary services PMI was 53.1 (lower than the previous 53.7, higher than the expected 52.9, a two - month low); the preliminary composite PMI was 52.8 (lower than the previous 53, higher than the expected 52.1, a two - month low) [2]. 3.3 Market News - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, which further hit re - export trade. Some shipping companies announced price increases. The Trump administration postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. The spot market price range has been set, with small price increases to test the market, and the futures market rebounded slightly [3]. - On July 31, the main contract 2510 closed at 1425.1, down 4.66%, with a trading volume of 46,300 lots and an open interest of 51,800 lots, a decrease of 3056 lots from the previous day [3]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term futures market may mainly rebound. Risk - takers were advised to go long lightly on the 2510 contract below 1300 (with a profit margin of over 300 points), and partially take profits; they were also advised to go short lightly on the EC2512 contract, pay attention to the subsequent market trend, not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive spread structure with high volatility. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with light positions [4]. - Long - term strategy: For all contracts, it was recommended to take profits when prices rose, wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [4]. 3.5 Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was set at 100 lots [4].