Market Overview - October 2025 experienced a significant market downturn, contrasting with the expected bullish trend [1][2] - A major liquidation event occurred, exceeding the combined impact of the FTX collapse and the COVID panic in March 2020 [7][8] - The crypto fear and greed index plummeted into extreme fear territory [11] Key Events and Triggers - Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $126,296 before the crash [4] - Geopolitical tensions, specifically trade war concerns, triggered a deleveraging event [6] - The Federal Reserve's rate cut and the end of quantitative tightening (QT) initially led to a market sell-off due to cautious remarks [12] Financial Impact - $1937 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated, impacting 16 million traders [7] - Bitcoin plunged 18% from its all-time high, while Ethereum fell over 20% [9] - Altcoins experienced more severe losses, with some coins losing 60% to 80% of their value [10] Potential for Recovery - The market purge of excess leverage could create a healthier foundation for a future rally [17][18] - The end of QT and potential further rate cuts could provide a tailwind for risk assets like crypto [21] - Institutional demand remained resilient, with Bitcoin ETFs seeing net inflows even after the crash [22] Future Outlook - Bitcoin and Ethereum could potentially break through their all-time highs by the end of the year, but the path is narrow [24] - Altcoin season is less likely in the immediate future, with Bitcoin dominance increasing [28][29] - The next altcoin rally will likely be more selective, favoring high-quality projects with strong fundamentals [32]

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Core Insights - The anticipated altcoin season is unlikely to materialize in 2025 or 2026, indicating a significant shift in crypto market sentiment [1][2] - Liquidity and institutional focus have shifted away from altcoins, leading to weaker price action and limited investor attention [1][5] Market Conditions - The "Black Swan" event on October 11 severely impacted the altcoin market, exacerbating an already fragile environment with declining VC funding for early-stage Web3 projects [2] - Weekly trading volume across centralized exchanges has decreased by 20–40%, reflecting a broader market caution and risk aversion among large capital [3] Current Market Sentiment - The Crypto Fear and Greed Index stands at 30, indicating a prevailing sense of doubt in the market cycle [3] - The market requires time to recover, and traders are advised to proceed with discipline [4] Investment Opportunities - Only a few projects with real-world use cases, such as stablecoins and payment infrastructure, may still be viable, although many are unlikely to issue tokens [4] - Altcoins have underperformed Bitcoin by approximately $800 billion in this cycle, leaving retail investors at a disadvantage [5] Shift in Investor Behavior - Korean retail traders, previously known for driving altcoin speculation, are now focusing on crypto-related equities, which have outperformed Bitcoin this year [5][6]

Altcoin Season Index slipped to 24 over the weekend and has inched back to 26, indicating thin breadth and selective risk. That backdrop matters for portfolio choices in October, when liquidity concentrates in tokens with clear triggers, visible depth, and narratives investors can act on. Three moves stand out for different reasons. FLOKI spiked after Elon Musk’s social mention that pulled traders into meme screens. Dash advanced on increasing trading volume against market trends. FET rose alongside renew ...

Altcoin Season index drops sharply.Should we be worried now? https://t.co/enFWfn8ZaR ...

🚨 BIG BREAKINGAltcoin season will start this week.DO. NOT. SELL https://t.co/Mf4nZmX5AU ...

Core Insights - Altcoin season refers to periods when most large altcoins outperform Bitcoin, typically occurring after a Bitcoin bull run loses momentum [4][5] - During altcoin seasons, the risk-return balance shifts, presenting both opportunities and temptations for investors [1][2] Investment Strategies - Long-term investors should continue dollar-cost averaging (DCA) into Bitcoin and Ethereum, regardless of price fluctuations during altcoin seasons [6][8] - Bitcoin's capped supply and halving events contribute to its increasing scarcity and value, while Ethereum's role in decentralized finance (DeFi) ensures its continued relevance [7] Market Behavior - A key indicator of altcoin season is when 75% or more of the top 50 altcoins outperform Bitcoin over the previous three months [5] - Although altcoin prices may rise significantly, investing in altcoins during these periods can be risky [9]

Core Insights - The article discusses the phenomenon of altcoin season, a period characterized by significant capital rotation from Bitcoin to various altcoins, leading to substantial price increases for non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies [1][2]. Group 1: Common Mistakes During Alt Season - Mistake No. 1: Over-investing - During alt season, altcoins like Ethereum, Solana, and Cardano often experience rapid price increases, which can lead to over-enthusiasm among investors. This can result in overtrading and speculative positioning, as fear of missing out (FOMO) drives investors to make impulsive decisions [4][5]. - The article emphasizes the importance of having a preset investing schedule and position sizing to mitigate emotional decision-making. Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is suggested as a strategy to maintain discipline and manage risk effectively [6][7]. - Mistake No. 2: Rotating out of quality to chase the hottest new thing - Investors may be tempted to sell high-conviction assets like Bitcoin to invest in lower-quality altcoins that are experiencing rapid price gains. This common mistake can lead to poor long-term investment outcomes as investors misinterpret short-term price increases as indicators of quality [8][10].

Core Insights - Altcoin season is benefiting tokens with strong momentum and liquidity, with Zcash leading the charge, followed by Litecoin and NEAR [1] Zcash (ZEC) - Zcash is trading at approximately $235, reflecting a 27% increase in 24 hours and a 382% rise over the past month [2] - Analysts attribute ZEC's surge to three main factors: renewed focus on privacy features, institutional access to products, and a sharp breakout that triggered momentum systems and squeezed short positions [3] - Market structure indicates significant turnover during the initial surge, with buyers actively defending reclaimed levels [3] - Growth in shielded activity and new trading pairs for ZEC are contributing to its usage and maintaining steady demand [4] - Future performance depends on sustained participation; if volumes remain strong and prices hold above support levels, ZEC could maintain its leadership [4] Litecoin (LTC) - Litecoin is currently priced around $133, up 13% in 24 hours, following a push towards a resistance band between $135 and $140 [5] - Ongoing discussions regarding ETFs are keeping LTC relevant in allocation conversations during favorable market conditions [5] - Traders are monitoring whether LTC can maintain its position above the breakout band with increasing volume, which would support its continued rotation in the altcoin season [6] NEAR Protocol (NEAR) - NEAR is trading at approximately $3.19, with an 11.7% increase in 24 hours, supported by steady turnover and incremental ecosystem updates [7] - The recent price movement is characterized as a gradual build rather than a sudden spike, suggesting more sustainable participation during the current rotation [7]

Market Trends - Altcoin season is expected to start next week [1] Investment Advice - The advice is DO NOT SELL [1]