Market Outlook & Altcoin Season Timing - Altcoin season is anticipated, driven by the business cycle, with potential catalysts including increased liquidity and fiscal stimulus [1][7][9] - The expected timing for altcoin season is towards the end of 2026, potentially peaking in Q2 [24][25] - The traditional four-year crypto cycle has shifted to a five-year cycle due to the extension of debt maturity in 2022 [13][21][22] - The Industry expects the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) index to peak by 2026, aligning with the anticipated altcoin season [14] Economic Factors & Liquidity - Fiscal stimulus and liquidity injections are expected to boost the market, potentially leading to a banner year [1][9] - Deregulation of banking could positively impact small caps and the overall business cycle [17] - The end of Quantitative Tightening (QT) is essentially Quantitative Easing (QE), adding liquidity to the system [16] - A potential $1.5 trillion could flow into the banking system due to the elimination of tax on tips [10] Crypto Market Dynamics - Bitcoin's performance is sensitive to monetary policy and the business cycle, currently behaving more like a risk-on asset [19] - Historically, the ISM moving above 50 has been associated with super cycle moves in Bitcoin and Ethereum [3][15][18]

Guy in comments last week: "BUT IVAN BITCOIN WILL PUMP BECAUSE OF ISM"remember "ISM CHART"?me neithermy bro, just like the GLOBAL M2 chart - the ISM is fugazionly the price trend matterthere is a million of macro charts to fit any biasTHE ANSWER YOU SEEK IS IN THE BTC CHART ...

Market Analysis - Bitcoin's major peaks have historically corresponded with peaks in the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) [6] - The current cycle feels different due to Main Street's economic struggles, leading to a lack of retail investor involvement and euphoria [6] - Social interest in Bitcoin is at levels similar to 2019 because Main Street is hurting [17] Economic Factors - The ISM Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) is a key indicator; above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 indicates contraction [5] - The Fed funds rate, currently at 4%, may be higher than the neutral rate, potentially impacting economic conditions [7] - A 50 basis points cut by the Federal Reserve could potentially bring the rate below the neutral rate, but this is not expected [8] Monetary Policy and Future Outlook - The market may experience waning interest in early 2026 until interest rates decrease and monetary policy shifts [13] - Lower rates are needed to alleviate Main Street's concerns about the labor market and inflation [17] - Over time, politicians tend to resort to printing more money to solve economic issues [18] - Cycles like the current one emphasize the importance of sound investment principles [18][19]

Market Analysis and Bitcoin Cycle - Bitcoin continues to trade within a range, with the lower end of the support range presenting buying opportunities [1] - The traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle, driven by the halving, may now be a five-year cycle, potentially peaking in Q2 2026 [2] - The Bitcoin cycle is correlated with the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) business cycle, a key indicator of US economic activity [3][4][5] - The current elongated business cycle, unlike previous cycles, is attributed to the extension of debt maturity from four to five years in 2021-2022 [8][9] - The average weighted maturity of the debt is 5.4 years, suggesting the ISM should peak by 2026 [10] - Despite the ISM remaining below 50, indicating economic contraction, any dips in Bitcoin price are considered buying opportunities, similar to patterns observed in 2015-16 and 2019-20 [11][12] Altcoin and AI Investment Opportunities - A new BitTensor fund has been launched, focusing on TOAO and BitTensor subnet alpha tokens, highlighting the potential of AI-related altcoins [12][13] - BitTensor subnets are providing AI models and companion apps at significantly reduced costs compared to traditional services like AWS [14] - SUI is positioned to dominate agentic commerce, particularly in AI-driven transactions, and has partnered with Google on AP2, an agentic payments framework [16][17] Swissborg (Borg) Token Buyback Program - Swissborg is using 50% of trading fees to buy back the Borg token, creating buy pressure [20][21] - Based on the previous week's stats, this equates to $400,000 weekly, $1.6 million monthly, and $20 million annually in buy pressure [21] - The buyback program could potentially pump Borg by 50% in a single week, given current liquidity and price impact [22]