Market Trends - Ethereum surpasses Bitcoin in ETF inflows [1] - Total ETF inflows exceed $12 billion [1] Cryptocurrency Performance - Ethereum is outperforming Bitcoin [1]

ETH price taps $4,000 for the first time in 8 months amid rapid Ethereum treasury accumulation and rising ETF inflows https://t.co/pWhYfGx6n8 ...

Supply Dynamics - For every 1 ETH minted, 32 ETH are being bought, indicating a significant supply shock [1] Institutional Investment - Eight wallets accumulated $2.17 billion in 17 days, highlighting concentrated accumulation [1] - July ETF inflows reached $4.2 billion, equaling the previous 11 months combined, demonstrating increased institutional interest [1] Mining Activity - A bitminer acquired an additional $1 billion last week, showing continued investment in mining infrastructure [1]

Market Trends - ETH hits 2025 high above $3,800 [1] - Record ETF inflows are occurring [1]

Market Trends & Momentum - Bitcoin reaching $108,000 is not the primary focus [1] - Senate vote on BTC capital gains amendment within 24 hours, coupled with Vance's declaration of its "strategic vitality," indicates unprecedented momentum [1] - $2.21 Billion weekly ETF inflows combined with a 6-year low in exchange supply suggests strong market demand [1] Investment Opportunities & Potential Risks - There is a 75% probability of capital gains elimination, potentially impacting investment strategies [1] - Grayscale deadline adds pressure to the market [1] - Support levels at $95,000 and $85,000 appear stable [1]

Market Sentiment - Market anticipates a positive trend, hoping to avoid any "Black Swan" events for at least a month [1] Macroeconomic Factors - Expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, indicated by Powell's statements [2] - Resolution of the Middle East situation, contributing to market stability [2] - The DXY (US Dollar Index) is experiencing a significant decline [2] Investment Flows - ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) inflows are increasing, suggesting renewed investor confidence [2] Cryptocurrency Market - Anticipation of cryptocurrency being accepted as collateral [2] - US government potentially focusing on purchasing Bitcoin (BTC) [2] Market Performance - NASDAQ has reached a new All-Time High (ATH), indicating strong market performance [2]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the year-end gold price forecast to $3,700/toz from a previous estimate of $3,300/toz, with a projected range of $3,650-3,950/toz [5][7][19]. Core Insights - The gold price has reached a new all-time high of $3,245/toz, recovering sharply after a 5% drop due to margin calls during an equity selloff [3][6]. - Stronger-than-expected central bank demand and increased recession risk are significant factors driving the upgraded forecast [5][19]. - The report indicates a 45% probability of a US recession in the next 12 months, which could lead to accelerated ETF inflows and potentially lift gold prices to $3,880/toz by year-end [19][24]. Summary by Sections Gold Price Dynamics - The gold price has shown resilience, recovering from a drop linked to US tariff announcements, with speculative positioning falling sharply while ETF holdings increased due to recession concerns [3][6]. - The report notes that physical demand in the East has risen as prices decreased, contributing to the recovery [3][6]. Central Bank Demand - The central bank buying assumption has been nudged up to 80 tonnes per month, reflecting a strong nowcast of 106 tonnes in February, significantly above previous assumptions [10][19]. - China was identified as a major buyer, accounting for 50 tonnes in February [13][19]. ETF Inflows and Recession Risk - Historical data suggests that ETF flows tend to overshoot during recession concerns, and the report incorporates this into its forecasting model [16][19]. - If a recession occurs, ETF inflows could return to pandemic levels, supporting prices towards $3,880/toz by year-end [24][25]. Upside Risks - The report highlights that risks to the upgraded forecast remain skewed to the upside, with potential scenarios illustrating gold prices reaching $4,500/toz by the end of 2025 under extreme conditions [23][25]. - Conversely, if economic growth surprises positively, ETF flows may revert to previous predictions, leading to year-end prices closer to $3,550/toz [24][29].