Brazil’s economic activity dropped for third consecutive month in July, pointing to the toll that hefty borrowing costs are taking on growth https://t.co/UNoVwqAmE5 ...

China’s economic activity slowed more than expected in August, adding to the likelihood that policymakers will roll out more stimulus to hit the official growth goal https://t.co/uEr6dqx5Ri ...

Economic Activity & Labor Market - Most of the 12 Federal Reserve districts reported little or no change in economic activity overall [1] - 11 of the 12 Federal Reserve districts describe little or no net change in overall employment levels [2] - Real wage growth seems dismal, weighing on consumer spending and activity [1][4][5] Inflation & Prices - Price growth is characterized as moderate or modest in ten of the 12 districts [3] - Strong input price growth is outpacing moderate selling prices, impacting the inflation landscape [3] - Tariffs are creating price pressures, but weakening real wages are causing demand to retract [4][5] Monetary Policy & Fed Decision - The market widely expects a 25 basis point cut at the upcoming Fed meeting [6] - Economic uncertainty and tariffs are frequently cited as negative factors [5][13] - Weak local conditions in Kansas City, presided over by a hawkish member, could influence voting for a rate cut [7][8][9][10] - A new Fed board member could advocate for a rate cut, potentially influencing discussions [16] - There is enough evidence to warrant a cut, but the timing (September vs later) is uncertain [14][15]

US economic activity saw "little or no change" across most of the country in recent weeks, the Federal Reserve said in its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts https://t.co/83ObcmBiok ...

Economic Activity Comparison - Ethereum ecosystem's annualized economic activity is $302 billion [2] - This figure surpasses the GDP of Malta ($258 billion) and Jamaica ($219 billion) [2] - Ethereum's economic activity positions it among the top 110 countries/territories globally [1] Market Trend - Ethereum is absorbing global economic activity, similar to the Internet's impact [1]

Economic Activity - Brazil's economic activity experienced a decline for the second consecutive month in June [1] - The decline is attributed to the central bank's aggressive interest rate hikes taking effect [1]

Inflation & Monetary Policy - The industry views it as difficult to argue for lower rates currently due to uncertainty about future inflation [1] - The industry notes that the pass-through of tariffs into higher prices has been modest so far, but it is still in the early stages [1] - Inflation is a key concern [2] - The industry believes there are no overwhelming signs of weakening economic activity that would necessitate monetary policy stimulus [2] - Current monetary policy stance is not considered tight [2] - There is no obvious reason for lower rates [2]

Monetary Policy - The committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 425 to 450 basis points [1] Economic Outlook - Higher tariffs have begun to show through more clearly to prices of some goods [1] - The overall effects of higher tariffs on economic activity and inflation remain uncertain [1]

Market Overview & Trends - Small cap market shows signs of life with a good month-to-date performance versus large caps [2] - The small cap market is considered extraordinarily cheap with a good underlying economic environment [3] - Expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in the back half of the year could act as a tailwind [3] - M&A activity has been quiet this year but backlogs are building, expected to materialize in the second half of the year [4] - Consumer spending has been strong, particularly on air travel, but a handoff to other sectors like tech, software, and semiconductors is anticipated [5][6] - Aerospace and defense sectors are performing well, with expectations of more IPO activity in the space sector [7] Company Specific Opportunities - Cheesecake Factory is highlighted as a Gen Z hotspot with good traffic trends expected throughout the summer [8] - Piper is expected to be an M&A story, benefiting from general capital markets recovery and a solid municipal bond business [9] - Site Time is mentioned as a company benefiting from increased connectivity demands within data centers, driven by AI development [15] Risk Factors & Mitigation - Companies have largely adjusted to high interest rates, which have been in place for almost 3 years [10] - Domestic focus of small caps is seen as an advantage, as companies have tightened supply chains and focused on the US market after previous tariff challenges [12][13] - Prior adjustments to semiconductor sourcing mitigate concerns about current tariffs, though future tariffs could potentially cap growth [17][18]

Brazil’s economic activity dropped far more than expected in May, a signal that sky-high interest rates are starting to weigh on Latin America’s biggest economy. https://t.co/y2f5GCOefh ...